Re: December 14th-15th Storm Thread

[algae888]

this setup reminds me of a storm in I think 77-78. January. we had a very strong high to our north and a low that came from the gulf up the coast. it took three days for the low to pass by. it just sat off the coast and crawled northward. if I remember correctly we got a foot an a half of snow. by the way I love this setup. last year I don't remember one storm that had a strong damning high to our north. whenever we get these HP we usually get snow.

[skinsfan1177]

The problem is teleconnections arwnt ideal. Hearing maybe starting as sno then rain and according to frank last nights runs wete rain i hope snow alot of time to track

[algae888]

I don't know how this storm will turn out , but when we get a strong cold HP to our north this time of year they are hard to budge. historically we get more snow when we have them in place before a storm.

[docstox12]

This is why we love a "active" pattern, you get one storm, and their is another waiting a few days away...

For sure, I don't even have enough time to be disappointed with the inch and a half we got in Orange County.  It's on to the next potential storm, and only 5 days away. Hopefully I'm in a better spot if this one comes to fruition.

CP, as of this AM,NWS leaning a bit more to a major winter storm.I'll be up in Monroe for it.I think the HV will do great if this pans out with the lower temperatures and better snow ratios.NWS thinking more mixing issues for the coast right now.

Lot's can change, but another piece of the puzzle is in place.

[Noreaster]

this setup reminds me of a storm in I think 77-78. January.  we had a very strong high to our north and a low that came from the gulf up the coast. it took three days for the low to pass by. it just sat off the coast and crawled northward. if I remember correctly  we got a foot an a half of snow. by the way I love this setup. last year I don't remember one storm that had a strong damning high to our north. whenever we get these HP we usually get snow.

That was the feb blizzard in 78' but it had very strong blocking and actually did a loop south of LI...I wasn't born yet but Ive read lots about it.  

[Noreaster]

The models will continue to waffle 2day and 2mor until all the pieces to the puzzle have come ashore in the US and get good sampling of atmospheric conditions.

[Frank_Wx]

The euro last night continues to output a snowy solution. Hmm very tricky storm here.

[algae888]

I am not saying this storm is anything like the 77-78 blizzard. I don't want to get to excited or hyped, but we have several pieces of the puzzle in place. very cold air, HP to our north and a storm coming up the coast. now they just have to all come together. the most interesting thing to me is with the pattern (+epo, +ao,+noa) we should not have wintry weather now, far from it, but when I went outside this morning it looks and feels like winter. maybe there are other factors that drive the weather that we don't understand yet. ill take this pattern any day.

[mako460]

Not for nothing but Linda Church on Channel 11 just said everything is in place for accumulating snow for Saturday she will let us know how much to expect by tomorrow. I think she is being a bit premature here.

[Frank_Wx]

I am not saying this storm is anything like the 77-78 blizzard. I don't want to get to excited or hyped, but we have several pieces of the puzzle in place. very cold air, HP to our north and a storm coming up the coast. now they just have to all come together.  the most interesting thing to me is with the pattern (+epo, +ao,+noa) we should not have wintry weather now, far from it, but when I went outside this morning it looks and feels like winter. maybe there are other factors that drive the weather that we don't understand yet. ill take this pattern any day.

Our negative EPO has been the driver in all of this. When warm air is located in Alaska and the Arctoc regions, it sets up for a cross-polar flow in the country (cold air from the Midwest all the way to the east coast). That's what we are seeing now. And another reason why we are talking about a storm this weekend is due to the polar vortex sitting over Greenland, bringing about confluence and preventing our High to the north from retreating away. I talked more about this in the blog.

Not for nothing but Linda Church on Channel 11 just said everything is in place for accumulating snow for Saturday she will let us know how much to expect by tomorrow. I think she is being a bit premature here.

Well, we are in a very cold air mass. No matter what, I think we see a period of snow Saturday night. Whether there's a changeover or not is the question.

[Frank_Wx]

Good discussions this morning. Glad we're all interested

[sroc4]

There are still huge differences in the 500mb set up as of Sunday at 00z for this storm regarding the southern energy. The Euro leaves energy behind and strings out the southern vorticity. The 500mb differences actually go all the way back to Friday time frame.
GFS

EURO

[Frank_Wx]

And since the EURO has a bias of leaving energy back in the south, I wonder if the GFS should be taken more seriously. EURO is in its good range now, however. We'll see what happens.

[deadrabbit79]

First timer here!  Jim Cantore just tweeted the following: @JimCantore as of last nights run, EURO still colder model w/lots of snow for #NYC & #Boston.  Waiting on new data.  EURO also shows substantial damming over interior PA for ICE.  Still early in game, but Great Lakes,Mid-Atlantic & especially northeast all in play Fri-Sun

[crippo84]

12Z GFS appears to have come in weaker/less organized for the area.

[Noreaster]

I still think the cold air hangs tough but a lot of us change over to sleet at some point.  Its very very hard for us to stay all snow with primary cut to our west..an 850 low to our west and a high to our north that's sliding east.  As of now I'm thinking the models will eventually agree in a stronger system the passes inside the benchmark but the high slides too far east to keep us all snow...the upper levels warm as do the kower levels along the coast....Snow to sleet to rain for city and the coast (may never chance to rain...the cold air will be tough to to move out)... snow to sleet to freezing rain inland. ..and way NW snow mixing with sleet..and all snow for far upstate NY and central and northern NE....only time will tell

[Frank_Wx]

First timer here!  Jim Cantore just tweeted the following: @JimCantore as of last nights run, EURO still colder model w/lots of snow for #NYC & #Boston.  Waiting on new data.  EURO also shows substantial damming over interior PA for ICE.  Still early in game, but Great Lakes,Mid-Atlantic & especially northeast all in play Fri-Sun

Welcome! Yes, he's correct. The trends of late though have been a less organized system, which may actually benefit us more on the coast. If the system phases, I think too much warm air gets drawn up from the south.

[Frank_Wx]

The 12z GFS is snow to ice event for many of us. Snow to rain on Long Island.

[Noreaster]

I do know Frank if a stronger storm does develop off the coast it could help if the high stays anchored to our north.  It could also warm us like u said if the high slides east.   We'll see.   Kinda excited for the Euro.  I missed this a lot while I was gone.

[sroc4]

With the way the 0z Euro shows the strung out vorticity at 500mb if the northern energy comes in like 6 hrs faster a phase with cold air is def plausable. With a weaker primary the 0z euro has it secondary quickly around S carolina. If we can get the northern energy in just a tad deeper and 6 hrs earlier we may get a fully or at least partially phased system. If the Euro caves and brings the S energy more amped and organized the coast will def change over and the R/S line will be N and W of I-95 despite all of us starting as a period of snow Sat night. But until the Euro caves I think an all snow or at least mod accumulating snow with mixing with sleet is def possible. Timing wise we are only a few hundred miles, and/or 6-8hrs or so from partial to full phasing.

[Noreaster]

Euro snow to rain coast .snow to ice inland

[aiannone]

12z Euro Snow Map

[sroc4]

Euro coming in a little more like the GFS and Canadian On the H5 by Sunday 0z time frame. Here is the comparison of last nights 00z to todays 12z at 500mb depicting Sunday 00z time frame


Also notice on todays run the northern energy is further north. I think yet again the progressive pattern to our east will be our enemy esp for coastal sections. The beginning of the event on Sat does look like fairly high ration snow but as soon as the HP drifts east, and the primary drifts north the mid levels will warm. The timing still has to be perfect here for phasing to occur, and the models seem to be converging on no phasing until too late sln. Some of the pieces of this puzzle have not made it to the west coast just yet, so I will wait another 24-48hrs before I lose hope for all snow, a partial, or full phase, with at least moderate accumulations for the coastal plain.

Euro also shows a nice little high ration clipper system for Tues-Wed time frame as well. Canadian kinda has it, GFS has nothing though.

[Frank_Wx]

Good stuff doc.

I am growing confident that we will see a period of accumulating snowfall Saturday night, but nothing in the extreme nature. I think 1-3 or 2-4 is possible, then a possible change to mix / ice (rain along immediate coast and Long Island). Given the upper level pattern, we should be fortunate we are even talking snow since the pattern does not really favor any. There are banana High's to our north that are reinforcing the cold air and keeping precipitation mainly frozen. There are still some details that have to be ironed out. We'll see if there are any trends to a more stronger storm, but I'm not feeling that will be the case at this time.

[docstox12]

NWS still has me here in Mahwah NJ as all snow for the entire event.If it still goes with that on Friday, I know they are right.Now, I'm not sure at all after reading these recent posts here.

[sroc4]

NWS still has me here in Mahwah NJ as all snow for the entire event.If it still goes with that on Friday, I know they are right.Now, I'm not sure at all after reading these recent posts here.

NWS has me on LI all snow Sat and Sat night and Rain/Snow for Sunday. Again def some details not set in stone by any means.

[docstox12]

Well, when there is potential, there is hope.

Next two days will be interesting.

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