Re: December 14th-15th Storm Thread

by **algae888** Fri Dec 13, 2013 1:25 pm

anyone know what todays euro showed? so far nam cold gfs warm

by **mako460** Fri Dec 13, 2013 1:27 pm

Bill Evans is still saying less than 3 in the city and along the coast might not even have any accumulation. I dont get it, every one else is trending for colder air and higher amts, and he is dropping his.

by **algae888** Fri Dec 13, 2013 1:29 pm

temps are in the mid 30s were only forcast to reach 30. not liking that! wonder if the models are overplaying the cold?

by labgirl Fri Dec 13, 2013 1:34 pm

I'm in SW CT and the local TV station said 7-12" for most of the state, isolated amts over one foot.

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 13, 2013 1:37 pm

The news outlets IMO are always on the conservative side so as not to cause panic (until the warnings are issued), however to say little to no accumulation if that is correct as to what he said would be way off IMO.

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 13, 2013 1:39 pm

Euro comes is about -7.5 degrees 850mb temps, not sure how that translates to the ground but it sounds cold. I am guessing 6-12 is a good bet all over.

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 13, 2013 1:39 pm

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013121312®ion=USA&var=TMP_850mb&hour=024

by **mako460** Fri Dec 13, 2013 1:39 pm

I was looking at that too, it's actually pretty nice out, was supposed to only hit 28 today.

by **amugs** Fri Dec 13, 2013 2:08 pm

December 14th-15th Storm Thread - Page 11 Wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour

Check out the WRF - things get pretty icy over CNJ and even NNJ towards the end.

The 12Z NAM loves the CAD (cold air daming) and maybe doing a better job at picking this up.

by **aiannone** Fri Dec 13, 2013 2:10 pm

Agreed Mugs

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 13, 2013 2:12 pm

I see the ice gets bad for my area (westchester NY too), could be looking at some power outages if enough freezing rain falls.

by goalscore Fri Dec 13, 2013 2:16 pm

what happened with the euro??

by deadrabbit79 Fri Dec 13, 2013 2:19 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I see the ice gets bad for my area (westchester NY too), could be looking at some power outages if enough freezing rain falls.

Looks like it turns to ice really late in the storm for us in Westchester though no?

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 13, 2013 2:19 pm

I also noticed the timing, that the freezing rain is still around the area at noon sunday, thats alot longer duration than the watch is forecasting now only till 6am sunday.

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 13, 2013 2:25 pm

Yes deadrabbitt I just posted that, agreed, wrf is not always that accurate IMO though. But thats just my opinion from watching it. But if we were to get a 1/4 inch ice or more that will cause some serious issues. Not to mention the prior snowfall.

by **amugs** Fri Dec 13, 2013 2:35 pm

Jman,

I hear ya - the WRF does go too long for the precip on most of these storms I have observed but around midnight there will be change over for some time a couple of hours that will cause icing issues for us burbs just outside the city - only time will tell.

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 13, 2013 2:39 pm

And this could be around a heightened period in the storm, so only a few hrs of moderate to heavy freezing rain and we are in the dark, only time will tell...well come on time go faster lol

by Noreaster Fri Dec 13, 2013 2:43 pm

Sticking with my call from yesterday

by goalscore Fri Dec 13, 2013 2:45 pm

my forecast high for saturday in nassau county is 27 degrees which would produce all snow but they're saying a changeover before midnight. "depends how much snow comes before it changes"

by **mako460** Fri Dec 13, 2013 2:49 pm

All that I know is that I'm getting paid OT tonight to put the plows and spreaders on the trucks. Getting paid to come in tomorrow to use them if it snows and if not....getting paid to take them back off. So this is a win win for me and my workers, Would love to see 3 feet of snow.

by **Taffy** Fri Dec 13, 2013 3:13 pm

I'm in Union County NJ. I'm trying to make sense of Franks snow map ( it's not him, it's me and I'm not being George Costanza here) It seems to me that I may get only 4". But reading the boards, is that likely to change? Curious cause I'm supposed to travel up North tomorrow.

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 13, 2013 3:14 pm

Mako I hear that! Just a little temp info for Yonkers, NY: Accuweather says 30, NWS says 27 and TWC says 25 for daytime highs (all snow seems). Nightime TWC says 24 (but snow to ice?), Accuweather says 28 (snow to ice or rain), and NWS says 27 going up to 35 (snow to, ice to rain) for night. So almost all sites have temps below freezing both day and night but still show a changover of some sort, can someone explain this to me? Is it that the upper air temps are higher than the surface? Seems more and more likely late tomorrow night and Sunday morning we will have quite a ice accretion 1/4 inch at least if ice verifies, depending on how much will determine any damage or froze shut cars and skating rink roads/sidewalks.

by **Dunnzoo** Fri Dec 13, 2013 3:17 pm

Taffy wrote:I'm in Union County NJ. I'm trying to make sense of Franks snow map ( it's not him, it's me and I'm not being George Costanza here) It seems to me that I may get only 4". But reading the boards, is that likely to change? Curious cause I'm supposed to travel up North tomorrow.

Taffy,

Where up North? North Jersey? NYS? The storm will really impact NYS and New England so depending on where you are going at what time....

by **Grselig** Fri Dec 13, 2013 3:20 pm

NWS is high of 23 for Wayne and Weather Channel is 24 high. Can this mean significant ice

by **Dunnzoo** Fri Dec 13, 2013 3:24 pm

Grselig wrote:NWS is high of 23 for Wayne and Weather Channel is 24 high. Can this mean significant ice

Ice will come if the temps in the midlevels warm up and we get freezing rain, rain caused by the warmup freezing on contact with a 23* ground........for you in Wayne, you will probably be all snow and little ice....

by **Grselig** Fri Dec 13, 2013 3:26 pm

Thanks.! Hope you are right as snow is quite a bit more fun

by **Taffy** Fri Dec 13, 2013 3:42 pm

[quote="Dunnzoo"][quote="Taffy"]I'm in Union County NJ. I'm trying to make sense of Franks snow map ( it's not him, it's me and I'm not being George Costanza here) It seems to me that I may get only 4". But reading the boards, is that likely to change? Curious cause I'm supposed to travel up North tomorrow.[/quote]

Taffy,

Where up North? North Jersey? NYS? The storm will really impact NYS and New England so depending on where you are going at what time....

Dunnzoo, Thanks for the help.
I'm heading up to Boston and it would be about 3 PM. Hate to bother you but this storm has me somewhat confused. It's not looking real good for me lol
Thanks for any info that will help me make some decisions and phone calls today.

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