Re: December 14th-15th Storm Thread

by **Grselig** Fri Dec 13, 2013 3:26 pm

Thanks.! Hope you are right as snow is quite a bit more fun

by **Taffy** Fri Dec 13, 2013 3:42 pm

[quote="Dunnzoo"][quote="Taffy"]I'm in Union County NJ. I'm trying to make sense of Franks snow map ( it's not him, it's me and I'm not being George Costanza here) It seems to me that I may get only 4". But reading the boards, is that likely to change? Curious cause I'm supposed to travel up North tomorrow.[/quote]

Taffy,

Where up North? North Jersey? NYS? The storm will really impact NYS and New England so depending on where you are going at what time....

Dunnzoo, Thanks for the help.
I'm heading up to Boston and it would be about 3 PM. Hate to bother you but this storm has me somewhat confused. It's not looking real good for me lol
Thanks for any info that will help me make some decisions and phone calls today.

by **Dunnzoo** Fri Dec 13, 2013 4:05 pm

Taffy wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:
Taffy wrote:I'm in Union County NJ. I'm trying to make sense of Franks snow map ( it's not him, it's me and I'm not being George Costanza here) It seems to me that I may get only 4". But reading the boards, is that likely to change? Curious cause I'm supposed to travel up North tomorrow.

Taffy,

Where up North? North Jersey? NYS? The storm will really impact NYS and New England so depending on where you are going at what time....

Dunnzoo, Thanks for the help.
I'm heading up to Boston and it would be about 3 PM. Hate to bother you but this storm has me somewhat confused. It's not looking real good for me lol
Thanks for any info that will help me make some decisions and phone calls today.

I would stay home.....here is the NWS forecast for New England...

LOCATIONS...MOST OF CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...MASSACHUSETTS
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF HARTFORD...
PROVIDENCE...BOSTON...WORCESTER...SPRINGFIELD...NASHUA AND
MANCHESTER.

* HAZARD TYPES...A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...ALONG
WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

* TIMING...SNOW OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND THEN
BECOMES STEADIER AND HEAVIER AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXING WITH RAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH-COAST.
SNOW MAY CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BRIEFLY AROUND EARLY-
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR NORTH AS THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE INCLUDING THE GREATER
BOSTON AREA...BEFORE CONCLUDING SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...LOW VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW. HAZARDOUS
TRAVELING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* UNCERTAINTY...PREVAILS WITH REGARDS TO HOW MUCH SNOW WILL IMPACT
THE REGION...AND HOW FAR INLAND A WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR AROUND
EARLY-SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST SNOW-TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE
AS WE APPROACH THE EVENT.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Fri Dec 13, 2013 4:07 pm

Time to chime in for my .02. Sorry I haven't been here lately as I am quite busy. When I am talking about QPF and precip types I am speaking about the central NJ/NYC area. The first model I looked at is the NAM, the 18z run seems to show around 1" of QPF for the area, it shows around 8" of front end snow then about .3" of freezing rain/sleet west of I-95 while it looks like cold rain just east. Then most areas S and East of I-287 turn to light rain with maybe .1" of that and then flurries/light snow to end for all. The 12z GFS appears warmer with maybe 2-4" of snow to start turning to all rain south of I-78 for the bulk of the storm ending with freezing rain/sleet NW of I-95 as the storm intensifies near cape cod. EURO is very similar to the GFS for what I am seeing except the low is weaker. Bottom line is this one will be a close one for I-95 corridor, slop fest seems likely. I would prefer a frozen slop fest since I hate slush and rain killing the snowpack. I will look into this more and report back later with my forecast.

by **algae888** Fri Dec 13, 2013 4:11 pm

nws now has .25inches of ice on top of 6-10 inches of snow for ne nj, Westchester,rockland and s conn. this is going to be a dangerous storm. good yhing its happening on sat-sun.

by **algae888** Fri Dec 13, 2013 4:15 pm

this is nws forcast for me in mount Vernon.
Saturday Snow, mainly after 10am. High near 26. East wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Saturday Night Snow before 10pm, then snow and sleet between 10pm and 1am, then freezing rain after 1am. Low around 25. Blustery, with an east wind 14 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

by **algae888** Fri Dec 13, 2013 4:21 pm

accu weather has also increased my totals from 2-4 to 4-8

by **algae888** Fri Dec 13, 2013 4:31 pm

nws went to warnings where their were watches and now have advisories for the rest of the area

by **Dunnzoo** Fri Dec 13, 2013 4:51 pm

algae888 wrote:nws went to warnings where their were watches and now have advisories for the rest of the area

Winter storm warning posted for NENJ and is mentioning ice now with temps rising Saturday evening.... 4-8" forecast

by **algae888** Fri Dec 13, 2013 4:54 pm

18z gfs colder trending toward the nam.

by **oldtimer** Fri Dec 13, 2013 5:00 pm

Could someone give me whats the latest for Long Island Will it be mostly rain

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Dec 13, 2013 5:20 pm

Please move over to the observations thread to continue discussions. Thank you.

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