December 14th, 2013 Updated Snow Map / Observation Thread

[Frank_Wx]

Updated snow map:



Potential ice accumulation map:



Warnings / Advisories map:



Dark pink = winter storm warning
Purple = winter weather advisory

Click here for details:

http://wx.hamweather.com/?map.x=387&map.y=165&minlon=-76.6265256928235&maxlon=-72.8407442046375&minlat=38.8073458787872&maxlat=41.6466819949266&mapwidth=640&mapheight=480&state=nj&forecast=closestwarning&nc=hwall&wtype=all

Timing:

Light snow showers or flurries: 5:00am to 9:00am

Heavy and moderate snow: 10 am to 10 pm

Change to freezing rain / sleet: 10 pm to 2 am

Storm will end between 3-5 am Sunday morning, could change back to snow for NW NJ before it ends

Impacts:

Everyone will start as snow tomorrow morning and pick up a light to moderate accumulation depending where you live. We are looking at a high ratio snowfall, specifically between NW NJ and the Hudson Valley (most areas north of NYC). Amounts could exceed 10 inches in those areas since they will see less ice and rain. For areas just west of the city (interior northern NJ), I am concerned about the ice threat that will happen Saturday night, or early Sunday morning. Ice amounts could exceed 1/4 of an inch, which will call for dangerous conditions Sunday morning on top of the snow that fell during the day Saturday. Some wind is expected as well, gusts over 25 mph at times. Please stay safe.

Chat tonight at 9:00 pm so I can answer additional questions. It will be only for 1 hour, 9:00 pm to 10:00 pm as I have studying for finals to take care of.

I will also send a newsletter out to your emails with additional information sometime between 8 and 9 pm tonight. Please remember to forward the emails to friends and family, which is the main reason why I do them. The email it is going to is the one you used to register for this forum.

Please use this thread for observations as well.

Thank you,

-Frank

[SoulSingMG]

Frank, how frustrating is it that I have a WWA here in Upper West Side yet HOBOKEN & J-City have a WSW! Any chance we will get upgraded? We are further north & further from the ocean! Upton is something else.

[Frank_Wx]

Frank, how frustrating is it that I have a WWA here in Upper West Side yet HOBOKEN & J-City have a WSW! Any chance we will get upgraded? We are further north & further from the ocean! Upton is something else.

It's a very close call. What does you point and click say? I have you in 4-8 I think, but surface temps could be the reason why.

[labgirl]

Thanks for all your hard work Frank, I really appreciate it and depend on it. Also thanks to everyone for their input!

[SoulSingMG]

Yeah that's true about surface temperatures. We'll see how models do this evening & if they trend colder. I just think it's funny I can look across the river to the WSW and find it hard to believe their effects will be that drastically different.

[Noreaster]

Frank ur map falls in line with mine call from yesterday (within an inch or 2 in all locations).  Looks good.  We'll see.   Tough forecast.  Everything depends on track, strength of the low and how long the cold air hangs in especially SE of I95

[oldtimer]

Paisan Frank great work as always I cant remember when NYC will get more snow than Port Jefferson lol

[jmanley32]

Hi Frank, thanks for the update, so 0.2 to as much as .50 inche is that freezing rain or sleet? Do you expect that downed trees and power lines will be a issue with that much freezing rain? I seem to recall a ice storm with about 1/4 inch and we lost power. I know at the very least ice like that will make travel impossible. Waiting and watching, glad I joined good info here. Where is the chat link at 9pm?

[SoulSingMG]

UPTON:

"THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER AN ADVISORY FOR
NOW...HOWEVER...SOME OF THE ADVISORY ZONES BORDERING THE WARNING MAY
NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING SINCE IT IS SUCH A CLOSE CALL...AND
A RELATIVELY SHARP GRADIENT IN SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED."

[Dunnzoo]

Hi Frank, thanks for the update, so 0.2 to as much as .50 inche is that freezing rain or sleet?  Do you expect that downed trees and power lines will be a issue with that much freezing rain? I seem to recall a ice storm with about 1/4 inch and we lost power.  I know at the very least ice like that will make travel impossible.  Waiting and watching, glad I joined good info here.  Where is the chat link at 9pm?

The chat room is at the bottom of the home page.....see you all later!

[Frank_Wx]

Frank ur map falls in line with mine call from yesterday (within an inch or 2 in all locations).  Looks good.  We'll see.   Tough forecast.  Everything depends on track, strength of the low and how long the cold air hangs in especially SE of I95

At least we agree!

Hi Frank, thanks for the update, so 0.2 to as much as .50 inche is that freezing rain or sleet?  Do you expect that downed trees and power lines will be a issue with that much freezing rain? I seem to recall a ice storm with about 1/4 inch and we lost power.  I know at the very least ice like that will make travel impossible.  Waiting and watching, glad I joined good info here.  Where is the chat link at 9pm?

I don't think it will be that bad. Isolated places could lose power. It's hard to tell. Hopefully the ice portion of this storm does not come as bad as some model says. I have a funny feeling this storm could end up a little colder than expected for some...

[jmanley32]

Which would mean more snow of course, so thats not really good either lol.  I have a bad feeling ice will be a big problem only because I do not remember the last time we had that much ice accretion forcasted and or any kind of ice storm in my 32 years of life, I remember a few and they were bad.  Lets hope its not a repeat. I also noted on latest NWS snow total map a 12-14 inche snowfall creeping south now that was not even on the map earlier.

[Frank_Wx]

Could be some thundersnow tomorrow

[SNOW MAN]

Frank do you think that ice will be a problem in my area or is going to be mainly snow ? Thanks for all of your hard work it's really appreciated.

[Frank_Wx]

Frank do you think that ice will be a problem in my area or is going to be mainly snow ? Thanks for all of your hard work it's really appreciated.

I'm bad with locations. Refer to the map to see where I have you placed. I'm more confident with the snowfall map than the ice one. And thank you

[SoulSingMG]

Lol LOOK at that rain/snow line. That's wild.

[pdubz]

wow north western Nassau county where i am is literally on the battleground for snow/mixing hope the heavy snow brings cooler temps down with it!

[SNOW MAN]

Will do. Thanks again.

[jmanley32]

Frank your not to far off from NWS ice map, they have a general 0.1-0.25 and a spot of 0.5 in central CT which is kind of odd to me.

[Frank_Wx]

Latest newsletter just sent

[pdubz]

any changes in the models?

[aiannone]

i just have a strong hunch that this will be colder than expectedstrong HP to the north, fresh arctic airmass coming in tonight and a solid snow pack developing tomorrow

[Dunnzoo]

Alex...thinking the same thing as well as dynamic cooling inland......if it as going to snow as hard as they say it will can't help but wonder why it wouldn't keep things cold.

[HEATMISER]

How's it looking for the center of long island(centereach)

[Frank_Wx]

How's it looking for the center of long island(centereach)

1-3/2-4 inches of snow then rain

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