Re: December 14th, 2013 Updated Snow Map / Observation Thread

[HEATMISER]

How's it looking for the center of long island(centereach)

[Frank_Wx]

How's it looking for the center of long island(centereach)

1-3/2-4 inches of snow then rain

[HEATMISER]

Thanks Frank. Hope it's more

[Frank_Wx]

Thanks Frank.  Hope it's more

No problem and welcome!

[essexcountypete]

Love that handle HEATMISER. But that means you should hate snow!!!

If folks put their location (or area) in their signature we know where you all are.

[jimv45]

How is it looking up in hopewell jct in dutchess any mix here?

[Frank_Wx]

Everyone join the chat room located at the bottom of the home page

[Pauledangerously]

Good looks Franky! I was a lurker on the 7boards and I like your layman's terms when it comes to weather. Sorry I don't know too much about the weather nor do I have a desire to learn(no offence). But the info you put out is nice.

[Frank_Wx]

Good looks Franky! I was a lurker on the 7boards and I like your layman's terms when it comes to weather. Sorry I don't know too much about the weather nor do I have a desire to learn(no offence). But the info you put out is nice.

Thank Paul! Thanks for following

[Frank_Wx]

RGEM shows bad icing in central NJ. Wow

[Noreaster]

NAM went mild...just an fyi.  I'm not a big NAM fan so I discount it even when it shows something real nice.  Until they update it, I find it unless.  Use the Euro, GFS anx RGEM compromise in most cases when trying to make a short term forecast...or go with ur gut as long as it's reasonable.

[Noreaster]

The RGEM ooked nice snowwise NW of nyc

[Frank_Wx]

GFS is about 3-5 inches of snow for NYC then rain. Pretty consistent. 3 inches looks like a good bet before the rain.

[Noreaster]

Oz gfs looked about the same...might be slightly closer to the coast and a bit warmer.

[jmanley32]

20mm of ice 0.78 inches in NJ would be terrrible!

[jbnyy224]

Temp still in the mid 30's across NYC. Any idea when this artic front will swing through and temps will drop?

[Noreaster]

28.8 here in southern Nassau County...look like your typical UHI in the city

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

21.2 in highland mills. City heat island at its worst.

[Math23x7]

After looking at the weather models this evening, I think I'm going with what the Canadian model says in terms of precipitation types. I subdivided this into 4 images as shown:
1) upper left: By the early afternoon, snow is making it's way into the NYC region. It will be in the upper 20s around this time in the city but in the upper teens in the northwest suburbs (i.e. Orange/Putnam counties)
2) upper right: By the early evening, the snow will really begin to accumulate across the area. But alas, the winds begin to shift in NYC and the rain-snow line is creeping northward as temperatures warm.
3) lower left: Later in the evening, the transition to rain is pretty much complete for southern New Jersey, NYC, and Long Island. Temperatures for these regions will be in the mid to upper 30s around this time. But the further north you go, the longer it takes to changeover to rain. In fact, some locations where it does not go above 32 degrees Fahrenheit will see an ICE storm, in which a quarter of an inch of ICE is possible!
4) lower-right: By early morning Sunday, the precipitation is tapering off in the NYC region but still hangs on to the north and east.
The last two images both shows the pink/red on precip map which indicate ICE. To me Ice could be an issue, especially for the roadways for the following: interior Central/Northern NJ, northern Westchester county, Rockland County, Orange County, Putnam County, Dutchess County, and most if not all of Connecticut)


The model shows 3-6 inches of snow for NYC with higher amounts north and west and lower amounts south and east. Personally, my gut tells me ~3" of snow for eastern Queens, NY (where I live), and ~4.5" for Central Park, NY before the changeover. The next 30-36 hours sure will be interesting to watch!

[2004blackwrx]

Waking up to a dusting already. Snow very light but also cold so everything is sticking. Hopefully people stay off the roads so I can get home from work tonight.

[Noreaster]

Light snow has been off and on in the HV overnight.   The 6z gfs looks bad for snow lovers in NJ..nyc and LI...A change over to rain for all except the NW part of NJ..most of the HV stays cold..southern ct changes over in some areas.  The 6z NAM looks worse.   The 6z RGEM is slightly warmer.  Sorry for the downer news.  Good luck to u all.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

It's nowcast time. I'd ignore all the models from this point on. Radar and temp profiles at the surface and mid levels is crucial now for all areas. As I said all along I'd be very surprised if coastal areas don't changeover. I'm getting more concerned for ice storm for interior. 17.2 right now in highland mills with light snow.

[SNOW MAN]

19 and snowing lightly.

[sroc4]

23* light snow. Dusting on the ground. Wading River

[docstox12]

Dusting here in Mahwah NJ.Looks like this is trending warmer, snow amounts down from yesterday and changeover seems more likely.Heading up to CP's area soon.Looks like more ice up there when it changes over.

[Scullybutcher]

Smithtown. Nothing to report here. 27*

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

What's your temp doc? 17.2 here. Dusting with very light snow falling. NWS forecast down from 6-10 last night to 4-8 now. At this stage I take it all with a grain of salt. As I said in an earlier post it's nowcast time it's all going to depend on how warm the mid-level get I'm sure here we never even approach freezing throughout the entire storm.

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