January 2nd-3rd Potential Snowstorm

I thought at around this time along the coast the cold air will be established and when I say established really cold not marginal. So in that case it wouldn't matter it would be snow IMO

sroc4 wrote:I still feel like with the established pattern this year the track ends up inside the BM and the coastal plain battles the R/S regardless.

I agree wholeheartedly.

Some winters the timing between the cold air and the storms is just perfect every time, 93-94, 95-96, 09-10, 10-11.
others are awful and the timing is never right 97-98, 01-02, 11-12.

So far this winter cant seem to decide one way or the other. Looking ahead I don't see this changing.

skinsfan1177 wrote:I thought at around this time along the coast the cold air will be established and when I say established really cold not marginal. So in that case it wouldn't matter it would be snow IMO

Even if its established cold, the ESE wind from a weak low, with no phase to wrap cold air into the system would warm all levels and create issues for some coastal areas.

skinsfan1177 wrote:I thought at around this time along the coast the cold air will be established and when I say established really cold not marginal. So in that case it wouldn't matter it would be snow IMO

Starting as snow is likely but if the southern energy is too close to the coast while it strengthens the strong SE and easterly flow will warm the mid levels quickly as it has done all season long. I'm not saying its a lock that this happens, simply that given the well established pattern we have been in it seems likely to me. The coast is still likely to see some snow, but without the phase with the Northern stream south of us there is no way for the cold air to wrap into the core of the system. Without that if the southern LP is strong enough, which again seems to be stronger than modeled once it arrives along the coast, the warmer Atlantic air wins out in the mid levels of the system.

Thanks sroc4 for the explanation so its a waiting game

Weather Channel now has the north shore LI as a mix for thursday and snow for friday. Is it still possible for the north shore to stay all snow?

lol



Accuweather wants early milk and bread store rushes?

Any idea on timing for this yet? My boyfriend has a really important job interview for Thursday at 1pm. :/

RJB8525 wrote:

lol



Accuweather wants early milk and bread store rushes?

They seem to have changed their tune. Silly Inaccuweather.

RJB8525 wrote:

lol



Accuweather wants early milk and bread store rushes?

Looks like a chance of a good snowstorm here but the low must strenghten way south of us rather than off the Jersey Coast with New England getting the blast and us light snow or flurries.New England gets hit with both scenarios.

Lot's of time to see how this comes together, but there IS a chance!

The 12z GFS had this moving away very slowly once it got off jersey coast. That scenario would play out very well for LI and parts of Hudson valley.

I noticed that the 12z nam at hour 84 has a lot of moisture along the eastern gulf and southeast atlantic. the gfs has significantly less. if that moisture can get pulled up into the northern system we can get a lot of snow. like sroc said maybe stj is being underplayed by gfs and other models. lets hope nam has it right.

also looks like nam has the northern stream energy stronger than gfs. I don't know if that is good or bad for us

Yeah GFS doesn't look impressive, low intensifies too late and further west. I am hoping its still having trouble handling all the factors. We are within the 5 day time frame so things should become clearer soon. Of course accuweather (or so called) is jumping the gun again. LOL

What do you all think? Major snowstorm or in between, I don't personally think it will be nothing.

jmanley32 wrote:What do you all think? Major snowstorm or in between, I don't personally think it will be nothing.

Guidance is all over the place with this system. Their is no similarities between models. All handle this system differently. Once sampling becomes available of the northern stream, guidance will get a better idea of how to handle this.
Until we get that, which is still  day or two away, models will not completely begin to converge(Trends will likely begin tomorrow at the 12z's.)
This is a complex Miller B system, which as I feel, are the worst to try to forecast for, as a extremely large amount of error can go wrong with these transfers.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:The 12z GFS  had this moving away very slowly once it got off jersey coast. That scenario would play out very well for LI and parts of Hudson valley.

The GFS was very weak and disjointed though. Would need a cleaner transfer of energy and a more south intensification of the Center to get some sizable precip back into the area, which is the problem with Miller B's, their always can be a screw zone with the precip shield as you know.

Quietace wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:What do you all think? Major snowstorm or in between, I don't personally think it will be nothing.

Guidance is all over the place with this system. Their is no similarities between models. All handle this system differently. Once sampling becomes available of the northern stream, guidance will get a better idea of how to handle this.
Until we get that, which is still  day or two away, models will not completely begin to converge(Trends will likely begin tomorrow at the 12z's.)
This is a complex Miller B system, which as I feel, are the worst to try to forecast for, as a extremely large amount of error can go wrong with these transfers.

The Primary hangs on too long on the Euro . The GFS surface depiction was perfect for us. Even though the op was bad aloft the ensembles looked good. the Navgem has it. The GGEM doesn't .
So since there's Zero continuity from run to run means don't etch any of these in stone
The models are having a hard time figuring the strength of the PV and how fast the southern feature takes over.

Mayhem means a hold for now

\

From HPC

amugs wrote:

Quietace wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:What do you all think? Major snowstorm or in between, I don't personally think it will be nothing.

Guidance is all over the place with this system. Their is no similarities between models. All handle this system differently. Once sampling becomes available of the northern stream, guidance will get a better idea of how to handle this.
Until we get that, which is still  day or two away, models will not completely begin to converge(Trends will likely begin tomorrow at the 12z's.)
This is a complex Miller B system, which as I feel, are the worst to try to forecast for, as a extremely large amount of error can go wrong with these transfers.

The Primary hangs on too long on the Euro . The GFS surface depiction was perfect for us. Even though the op was bad aloft the ensembles looked good. the Navgem has it. The GGEM doesn't .
So since there's Zero continuity from run to run means don't etch any of these in stone
The models are having a hard time figuring the strength of the PV and how fast the southern feature takes over.

Mayhem means  a hold for now

Pretty much what i just said. Ensemble spread on the models are huge. Their is no agreement to the Operational, except for the mean, but that's due to having extremes on both sides on the ensembles which is crazy.The thread the needle pattern and trying to forecast how the confluence sets up is really testing guidance right now.

You got it kid - this is going to drive us crazy - one model nada - one a big hit and then....

amugs wrote:You got it kid - this is going to drive us crazy - one model nada - one a big hit and then....

and then we wait until late tomorrow.   

amugs wrote:You got it kid - this is going to drive us crazy - one model nada - one a big hit and then....

I think i threw my hands up and cursed off each model today lol. Its frustrating....but we have to stay patient...Very hard forecast...

The ensembles continue to be south and east of where the OP's are. The OP models are having the primary cut west and transferring through our state, putting us in a dry slot. The ensembles transfer to our south so a coastal storm develops quicker and we benefit (precip wise) much more.

Got this map from another site H5 ensemble mean seems a bit more favorable, and overall, not a bad look - looks to transfer the primary from Ky to the secondary low just off the Ocean City MD area and it moves slowly to the benchmark - we shall see.... tomorrow ....Tuesday and then



Need to right click and open in a new window to see the map

amugs wrote:Got this map from another site H5 ensemble mean seems a bit more favorable, and overall, not a bad look - looks to transfer the primary from Ky to the secondary low just off the Ocean City MD area and it moves slowly to the benchmark - we shall see.... tomorrow ....Tuesday and then



Need to right click and open in a new window to see the map

12z Euro Ensemble mean

I think it is still going to take a couple of days for models to catch onto the upper level pattern. Ensembles and OP's are clearly not in agreement which is always a red flag. The 12z GEFS Mean actually look wetter than they have been. Once the confluence is better sampled, we will begin to see agreement.

Looking at the 12z EURO for the first time today...up to 96 hours, everything looks pretty good



We have the nice ridge in the west (too bad it's not north-south orientation but it'll do) with the confluence west-northwest of Nova Scotia. The EURO did back away from the STJ interaction though, which is what the GFS has been saying.

However...

What you do see from the H5 map above is the piece of s/w wedged in between the north Pac. ridge and the western U.S. ridge, also known as a kicker. This kicker is basically flattening the western ridge and pushing it into the Midwest.



Fast forward to hour 120, the confluence area near Nova Scotia has dramatically weakened and the +PNA is not nearly as amplified. You can see the storm on the east coast is close though. If we can just slow things down by 6 hours or so and get the phase in quicker with the northern stream energies, it should produce a favorable outcome.

In my opinion, I do not think the confluence area will "die" as quickly as these OP models are suggesting. I think this will be a Miller B, but the transfer will occur further south. That is pretty much what the ensembles are doing.

We'll see what happens...