January 2nd-3rd Potential Snowstorm

yeah I have to go to work thursday and Friday so its good in that respect I guess.

From News12 LI Rich Hoffman:

I have been a meteorologist for more than 18 years. There is a reason meteorologists don't go throwing numbers out so far in advance because things can change. A unwritten rule at news12 is we usually post snow fall totals 24-36 hours in advance, no hype just straight forward. Looking at the 12z data I noticed more of a southeast trend. If that trend continues we could see light snowfall amounts. I want to thank all the people who follow me on facebook and watched me for more than 11 years on news12 LI.

Tonight's model runs will really make this thing clearer....maybe,LOL!

The NAM tonight is important isnt it?

RJB8525 wrote:From News12 LI Rich Hoffman:

I have been a meteorologist for more than 18 years. There is a reason meteorologists don't go throwing numbers out so far in advance because things can change. A unwritten rule at news12 is we usually post snow fall totals 24-36 hours in advance, no hype just straight forward. Looking at the 12z data I noticed more of a southeast trend. If that trend continues we could see light snowfall amounts. I want to thank all the people who follow me on facebook and watched me for more than 11 years on news12 LI.

We do need a trend in the other direction soon because the last 24 hours, after yesterdays euphoria has been all downhill.

BTW- how and where do i post my seasonal snowfall totals?

Yet, NWS is calling for 5 to 9 and Accuweather says 6-12 in my area.I think someone says Evans called for 6-12 north of the City.That's three services pretty much in line even with the trend fading.

docstox12 wrote:Yet, NWS is calling for 5 to 9 and Accuweather says 6-12 in my area.I think someone says Evans called for 6-12 north of the City.That's three services pretty much in line even with the trend fading.

Doc:

I think NWS updates again at 4 o'clock. Pretty sure we'll see lower amounts then.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:BTW- how and where do i post my seasonal snowfall totals?

CP, go to your profile and then in the signature tab you can type what you want....if we can get everyone else on that we will have a good idea who gets what where throughout the season....

What a disappointing 12 hours of model runs.
We just cannot get 'our' storm, can we.

That would really indicate they are seeing this coming apart.I'm not giving up on it until Thursday morning when I see the radar.

BTW, read HM and he says Monday is a GLC for us with rain.

Dunnzoo wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:BTW- how and where do i post my seasonal snowfall totals?

CP,  go to your profile and then in the signature tab you can type what you want....if we can get everyone else on that we will have a good idea who gets what where throughout the season....

Thanks Janet.

I have made my first call. New thread with snow map is up.

SoulSingMG wrote:What a disappointing 12 hours of model runs.
We just cannot get 'our' storm, can we.

Plenty of winter left for that.It's that friggin' NAO that is hanging us up.Great cold air, active storm pattern but we can't get a big snowstorm to come together.Maybe a few more weeks the pattern will become more favorable for that.

docstox12 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:What a disappointing 12 hours of model runs.
We just cannot get 'our' storm, can we.

Plenty of winter left for that.It's that friggin' NAO that is hanging us up.Great cold air, active storm pattern but we can't get a big snowstorm to come together.Maybe a few more weeks the pattern will become more favorable for that.

Exactly. People should not be upset with this storm regardless of final outcome. Lots of storms ahead to track.

The Northern energy is starting its nose dive south.  (For those who don't know-- the tiny yellow circle Just SE to LI with the number 40 in the center is the 70 degree Longitude/40degree latitude AKA the BM (bench mark)).  The Black track of LP is what I think the track will do based on Model guidance; however, the green LP track would be if northern energy digs a little more than what is modeled leading a trajectory to the east coast slight more north to south which would bring the LP center closer to or right on the BM bringing snow totals up.  (This could happen)
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Notice in the loop the energy has pretty decent momentum.  We have to hope that the northern piece comes in with enough inertia to cause additional amplification as it rounds the base of the trough and interacts with the STJ causing the trough axis to go neg in order to still get Godzilla.  Not likely but  I still feel like the next 24-36 hrs holds a slight NW trend despite the last 24 hrs.  Positioning changes of the key players of a mere 50-75 miles could be the difference of increasing or decreasing totals by as much as 3-5" or more.  I think if the focus of energy can concentrate enough at the base of the trough instead of the some of the energy escaping out ahead of it there could be enough energy to raise heights out ahead of it without the NAO's help. I forget the term for that but it is an actual thing.
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Good stuff Doc!

This thread has run its course, lets switch to the other. Maybe it brings better luck