Re: Observations/ Final Discussion Thread 1/2 - 1/3, 2014 Snowstorm

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:28 pm

amugs wrote:

Holy smokes getting wetter by the run Ace you maybe in the jackpot as per hrrr

Yeah, each run jackpots the shore with more QPF. Only about a inch right now. Heavy bands In MD and DE and one about to get me now. Excited.

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:29 pm

how is anyone going to get an actual measurement tomorrow? lol

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:30 pm

I think people will be very surprised how fast this Low blows up and the rates we are gonna see across tri-state between 12-4am

by **oldtimer** Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:30 pm

Looks Great Ace

by Noreaster Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:31 pm

Heavy snow..1/4 mile vis...22.4 degrees. Winds NNE 21 mph gusting to 27

by **amugs** Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:36 pm

Ace you are getting a foot loks like the sweet spot this winter kid!!

by **RJB8525** Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:36 pm

Quietace wrote:
amugs wrote:

Holy smokes getting wetter by the run Ace you maybe in the jackpot as per hrrr
Yeah, each run jackpots the shore with more QPF. Only about a inch right now. Heavy bands In MD and DE and one about to get me now. Excited.

OMG if this holds i'm in a sweet spot with L.I

by **amugs** Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:40 pm

My wind anemometer is not reading as it spins crazily these past few minutes dog fawn it!!

Temp down to 15.6* started at 20.5 at 5PM when it started snowing tonight!

by **amugs** Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:42 pm

RJB8525 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
amugs wrote:

Holy smokes getting wetter by the run Ace you maybe in the jackpot as per hrrr
Yeah, each run jackpots the shore with more QPF. Only about a inch right now. Heavy bands In MD and DE and one about to get me now. Excited.

OMG if this holds i'm in a sweet spot with L.I

RJ where are you on the island? You guys are going to get whacked tonight that is for sure - I say 15+ easily from these models and latest info

by **RJB8525** Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:44 pm

Yeah Mugs,northern part of the island

by Noreaster Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:45 pm

amugs wrote:
RJB8525 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
amugs wrote:

Holy smokes getting wetter by the run Ace you maybe in the jackpot as per hrrr
Yeah, each run jackpots the shore with more QPF. Only about a inch right now. Heavy bands In MD and DE and one about to get me now. Excited.

OMG if this holds i'm in a sweet spot with L.I

RJ where are you on the island? You guys are going to get whacked tonight that is for sure - I say 15+ easily from these models and latest info

Merrick. Southern Nassau Co

by Angela0621 Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:46 pm

Still looking good for jersey shore ? Monmouth county ?

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:46 pm

Angela0621 wrote:Still looking good for jersey shore ? Monmouth county ?

Yes very....

by **amugs** Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:47 pm

WOW - coming from the expert himself -

Paul Kocin posted on FB the storm is over performing. That means something IMO

by **cooladi** Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:48 pm

Snowing moderately in Franklin Square. Started at 6:30 PM, about an inch on the ground now, so around 0.5 per hour so far. Even at that rate, by 6:30 AM will be at least 6 inches. I'm betting it'll be more. Jeez I can never sleep when it snows like this at night. Have to keep checking. Hope I get enough to stay home tomorrow!

by **RJB8525** Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:48 pm

amugs wrote:WOW - coming from the expert himself -

Paul Kocin posted on FB the storm is over performing. That means something IMO

Paul Kocin was the man on TWC! i gotta go to his FB page

by **oldtimer** Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:49 pm

Ace Have you got into the heavy stuff yet??

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:57 pm

Stuck at work till 10. How's it looking?

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:57 pm

oldtimer wrote:Ace Have you got into the heavy stuff yet??

Getting heavier by the hour. Still only 25 dbz mod snow. HRRR does not have really heavy stuff for a few more hours. See it on radar to the south.

by **amugs** Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:57 pm

Observations/ Final Discussion Thread 1/2 - 1/3, 2014 Snowstorm - Page 12 Mcd0001

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0001
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CST THU JAN 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NJ/SERN NY INCLUDING LONG ISLAND/CT/RI/SERN
MA/DOWN EAST ME

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 030143Z - 030645Z

SUMMARY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM PARTS OF NRN NJ
ENEWD ACROSS SRN/ERN NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONALLY...BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE WITH TIME.

DISCUSSION...SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO -- AND IN LOCAL AREAS EXCEEDING
-- AN INCH PER HOUR ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
THE SRN NEW ENGLAND VICINITY...AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE
ERN THIRD OF THE U.S. OVERNIGHT. AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD...A
SURFACE LOW -- NOW OFF THE COAST OF SERN VA/NERN NC -- IS PROGGED TO
UNDERGO RELATIVELY RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY ENEWD OVER
THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.

ATTM...THE BAND OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM ERN VA --
WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS OBSERVED -- NEWD ACROSS NJ AND LONG
ISLAND AND INTO SRN CT/RI/SERN MA...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOWFALL INDICATED ACROSS THESE AREAS.

LATEST SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOWFALL
WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT -- FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EWD ACROSS NRN
CT/MA/SRN VT/SRN NH/SRN ME...INLAND/WELL N OF THE ONGOING HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...HIGH-RES MODELS -- INCLUDING THE
NMM4...THE HRRR...AND A LOCAL NSSL 4KM WRF -- DEPICT THE HEAVIEST
ONSHORE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SERN NEW ENGLAND
VICINITY. THIS IS MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND
GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO TRACK ENEWD AWAY FROM THE COAST
WITH TIME...THE SERN NEW ENGLAND VICINITY REMAINS THE AREA OF
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SUSTAINED/HEAVY ONSHORE SNOWFALL OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION...AS WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THIS
AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEEPENING OFFSHORE LOW...BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED REDUCED
VISIBILITY/BLOWING SNOW.

..GOSS.. 01/03/2014

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

by **oldtimer** Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:58 pm

Good Frank come home lol

by **cooladi** Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:58 pm

First town combination plow/salter just came down my block. I live on a side street 1 block south of Hempstead Turnpike. Plow was in raised position, but they did salt the street. Very unusual to start this early in a storm. Some municipalities are conducting themselves as if they think they can have the roads cleared for the morning rush. I'm seriously hoping the only morning rush I'm doing is for hot cocoa...

by Noreaster Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:59 pm

Tried talking my dog for a walk..if you walk into the wind its impossible to look up or straight..getting blasted

by meeka312 Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:59 pm

belford nj at 2" been snowing for about 2 hours. i also see on the map we are in the .8 to 1 qpf. hopefully we see the 15:1 or even 20:1 ratios. any thoughts on eastern monmouth county?

by Gator99 Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:59 pm

Greenpoint, Brooklyn: 23 degrees, light snow just kinda blowing around, no real ground cover.

by **RJB8525** Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:00 pm

Noreaster wrote:Tried talking my dog for a walk..if you walk into the wind its impossible to look up or straight..getting blasted

I took my pup out for a walk at 7 it wasnt much on the ground good coating it was rough coming down though in a matter of minutes it really blew up

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:00 pm

meeka312 wrote:belford nj at 2" been snowing for about 2 hours. i also see on the map we are in the .8 to 1 qpf. hopefully we see the 15:1 or even 20:1 ratios. any thoughts on eastern monmouth county?

Very very good like me. We will see close to a foot.

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