Feb 9th-10th Storm Final Discussion/Observations

great write up frank im still learning so much alot to digest lol. I do have a question what does Conus mean. Is it contential U.S. thats what pops in my head first

18z GFS brings back the storm to an extent. 5-8in on that run with ratios

How can Lee be so certain there won't be a significant storm this weekend? Especially given the way the models trend 4-5 days out and then figure themselves out within 2 days out. He is usually my favorite MET but lately, I'm not that impressed with him.

skinsfan1177 wrote:great write up frank im still learning so much alot to digest lol. I do have a question what does Conus mean. Is it contential U.S. thats what pops in my head first

Yes, good job!

Frank, please don't forget us when you make NETWORK! You're the best!

Mathgod55 wrote:Frank, please don't forget us when you make NETWORK! You're the best!

I agree, this site provides me with a lot of good reading during my bathroom trips and everywhere else. Lol   

Probably going to stay quiet on this one for about one more day.
We have seen models lose systems like this in the mid range before only to bring them back. I think overall the pattern is favorable for some type of system. But i want to see the energy well sampled first before observing the models whole minded.
Pattern recognition is key with this set up, not the models as they will flounder as they have all winter.

Hey Ace quick question do you know what our record snowfall is here

skinsfan1177 wrote:Hey Ace quick question do you know what our record snowfall is here

I dont know but i will do some research.

The 18z GFS and NAM both look a bit better, a phase doesn't look too far off to be honest. I think we see the models creeping back to a better solution. To the monster we saw before? IMO unlikely but at this point it looks like we will see some snow. Which is all that's important ATM. Plenty of time to trend more amplified which IMO is a good chance due to the trends all winter.

This storm was a similar scenario, was forecasted to be OTS just days before the event. Similar setup IMO.

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2011/11-Jan-11-SurfaceMaps.html

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2011/11-Jan-11.html

Miller B's are tough and models typically have trouble with them. Again, not saying this is going to be the outcome, but it could be.

Quietace wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Hey Ace quick question do you know what our record snowfall is here

I dont know but i will do some research.

ok Ace sounds good

Frank_Wx wrote:BLOG IS OUT

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2014/02/what-happened-to-3-foot-blizzard.html

Dude as usual amazing write up. Thank You.

http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/east-coast-weekend-storm-potential/22923523

Interesting write up here. Need all the variables to line up respectively for classic blizzard scenario.

18z

Frank great write up once again.

What has been the trend and pattern - NW by these storms and more amplified - just is being one of those winters so we go with the trend until it is done. We wait until Fridays runs to see where things are at for Sunday into Monday. As has been the case ALL winter that we do not get good model sampling or consensus of the energy and know what is what until the energy is on the CONUS and about 48-60 hours before the storm is going to hit - remember Jan 3, 22 and this past Monday to name a few.

My feeling is the Davis Straight Block will help this sitch along with the other factors evolve into a very good maybe even fantastic snowstorm for us. The pro mets have been driving me crazy today as well with OTS and S&E - then Sat night and Sun they scramble this has been the MO all winter. Best thing is they call for 1-3 or a miss and what happens - we get slammed, crushed, hammered!!

Guys the pattern is ripe for a storm and IMO I believe it will take shape for us. Let's take a night off and get some rest, step away from the computers and get ready to start tracking come Friday (me tomorrow night - HAHAHA!!),

Ciao

Already subtle changes on the 00z GFS in the right direction. Will wait for the entire run to end to explain. That blog has reached over 2,000 people. Thanks for sharing guys! It's been going around Facebook as well.

I am going up to Vermont Friday night and coming home around 4pm Sunday. Do you think i am going to have to cancel that?

Frank:

As a casual weather observer my whole life I am still amazed at your in depth analysis. Thanks for sharing it with us through the years, it's great stuff.

Looking forward to the 00z GFS explanation.

I'm addicted to this forum.

Frank
A word of appreciation.
You make a difference and help prepare us for weeks like this. I really enjoy reading and learning from you, the moderators, and contributors on the site.

Thanks
Greg

This run took a stride in the right direction, especially at H5, which is what we were looking for at this juncture. There is vorticity popping up all over the place on the GFS and to me it shows the uncertainty of the model and which one to focus on. Once this energy receives better sampling as it comes ashore, we should begin to see more consistency and a clear storm signal on the east coast for Sunday. 


H5 = 500mb level of the atmosphere which is what I look at 4+ days before a potential storm. 


There's so much potential there which is why I'm confident in at least a moderate event effecting the area.

Frank any chance of the monster blizzard? accuwx still has it as a possibility and it hasnt been completely dropped from words of my local met.

I hate listening to lee Goldberg he sounds confident that this storm will not materialize , I really hope he's wrong

I can't even imagine 20-30 inches of snow on top of what we have, the piles here are already so high and the roads mostly side, are a mess.  Add even 6-12 and another 2-3 storms after than and we won't be able to move here in the city area.

I understand that it must be difficult but we don't always get winters like this ! So let it snow

Yes, I love it when its comin down and all the excitement leading up to it but its the aftermath that isnt too fiun.