Re: BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:39 pm

Long range NAM would NOT show a triple phase. Southern stream too far ahead. Not sure if it would even show a phase, too far out for the NAM still

BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0 - Page 2 Nam500mb-hgt_rvort_us-84

BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0 - Page 2 Nam500mb-hgt_rvort_us-84

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:47 pm

NAM stands for NOT AT (the) MOMENT. elephant

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:50 pm

soul who is eric?

by **pdubz** Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:52 pm

Anyone have the 00z GFS?

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:54 pm

soul I just went to their twitter feed you have the link to that because I do not see it anywhere?

by **pdubz** Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:55 pm

Here is the whole conversation

BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0 - Page 2 E64208ea4b

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:55 pm

The 00z GFS still hangs energy back in the west, so this run is likely not to show a strong storm like the EURO shows.

by **pdubz** Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:57 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The 00z GFS still hangs energy back in the west, so this run is likely not to show a strong storm like the EURO shows.

This far out phasing is more important then track right?

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:57 pm

Polar stream energy is extremely potent at hours 102 dropping down, but a lot of the northern stream energy got sheared apart. May not show a great run. We'll see

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:59 pm

Frank what does your gut say at this point? GFS/ Euro or blend?

by **pdubz** Fri Mar 07, 2014 11:02 pm

Apparently the GFS is lost.. what a shocker Evil or Very Mad

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Mar 07, 2014 11:02 pm

GFS hardly has a storm. Shears the energy

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 07, 2014 11:07 pm

Ahhh well I'm not concerned at this far out. Its that upgrade they need. I am feeling the Euro for some reason or something similar.

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Mar 07, 2014 11:07 pm

pdubz wrote:Here is the whole conversation

Exactly, thanks Pdubz.

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 07, 2014 11:10 pm

Oh no CP, mugs etc we didn't warn everyone about posting maps!

by **pdubz** Fri Mar 07, 2014 11:11 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Oh no CP, mugs etc we didn't warn everyone about posting maps!

only the bad ones so people don't get happy.. i wont post any other

by **pdubz** Fri Mar 07, 2014 11:32 pm

00z CMC looking different or still the most northern track?

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Mar 08, 2014 12:02 am

00z GEFS look north of the OP

BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0 - Page 2 GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f120

BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0 - Page 2 GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f126

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:22 am

BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0 - Page 2 1912181_752397498106699_1364422314_n

Euro has caved to the GFS in holding back energy in the west, but the northern stream energy is more potent than the GFS and tries to make up for it this run

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:25 am

Euro has a late phase this run.

by **pdubz** Sat Mar 08, 2014 2:18 am

Rather have the crappy runs now then Tuesday night

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 08, 2014 7:19 am

I had a dream that Bill Evans posted a snowfall map now and jinxed us lol. Gosh CP you really have me in the grips of superstition lol

by **essexcountypete** Sat Mar 08, 2014 8:50 am

uh oh jman, when you're having weather anxiety dreams you know you're in too deep brother.

I think we all need to go outside today and get some fresh air.

by **Dunnzoo** Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:09 am

essexcountypete wrote:uh oh jman, when you're having weather anxiety dreams you know you're in too deep brother.

I think we all need to go outside today and get some fresh air.

I'm off to the shore myself today....too bad Seaside is going to be crazy with the St. Patty's Day parade...will have to go somewhere else.....

by **amugs** Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:33 am

Zoo you are a die hard jersey Beach Girl - the beach on the 1st 50* day o fteh year - hope a sea breeze doesn't kick in or else brrrrr!! Have fun O'Zoo!!

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Mar 08, 2014 10:00 am

This mornings 6z GFS operational had a much better look than last nights 0Z. If anyone has looked at the ensembles I'd be curious if there was the same type improvement.

I'm not married to any run yet but I'd rather be trending towards a storm than not. It's only 5 days out now so I will pay closer attention to model runs starting today.

Anyone thoughts?

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Mar 08, 2014 10:32 am

I've been favoring a rain to snow scenario for us along the coast. The more north and west you love the less rain you'll see. Details won't get ironed out until Mondayish. Models are still trying to figure out the track of the low. GFS had no phase last night back to a phase this morning. Very inconsistent.

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