Re: BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0

by **jmanley32** Tue Mar 11, 2014 9:05 am

Accuwx has us changing to snow still, "slippery travel " I can'rt believe the amounts NAM is showing up north, crazy but mets are keeping it low comparatively even NWS.

by **docstox12** Tue Mar 11, 2014 9:28 am

Even though this event busts out for snow here, it's gonna be interesting tomorrow night.Temps plunge from the 50's to the teens, 40-50 MPH winds, possible thunderstorms maybe even a heavy snow squall or two.Great for observing.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Mar 11, 2014 9:56 am

docstox12 wrote:Even though this event busts out for snow here, it's gonna be interesting tomorrow night.Temps plunge from the 50's to the teens, 40-50 MPH winds, possible thunderstorms maybe even a heavy snow squall or two.Great for observing.

Yep, they may be skiing till May in the Adirondacks of NY if some of the models are true. Looks like 30 inches plus up there.

by **jmanley32** Tue Mar 11, 2014 9:59 am

yeah doc im still a little psyched that theres not going to be no wx. Wind is cool, and def t-storms although dunno if they make it into southern westchester, but does say for NYC so its really close to me. I am hearing conflicting onfo about t-storms some people on bloghs etc say there is no chance but I tend to trust in you all here as your all a very smart bunch and almost always get it right.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Mar 11, 2014 11:20 am

SPC expanded the t-storm area to include very much of the Mid-Atl and northern Mid-Atl area including the entire viewing area.

by **sabamfa** Tue Mar 11, 2014 12:56 pm

amugs wrote:Homemade Baileys from the KSW aka Mugs

2 cups of light cream
1-1.5 cups of any whiskey
1 cup of milk
2 tbsp of vanilla extract
2-3 tbsp of Hershey's syrup
1 can of condensed milk

If in a pinch or like to save n a coin use baileys 16 oz creamer in the dairy aisle works in place of the cream

To make even creamier add a scoop or two of coffee or vanilla ice cream

Shake up real good chill and enjoy!

Thanks, Mugs!!!!

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Mar 11, 2014 1:25 pm

NWS Revised

THE OTHER CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND
WITH THE FRONT. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED, MU CAPE VALUES
LESS THAN 500 J/KG, GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW,
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF A LINE OF STORMS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT, AND IS ABLE TO TRANSLATE THE LOW LEVEL
JET DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Mar 11, 2014 1:30 pm

by **amugs** Tue Mar 11, 2014 2:50 pm

BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0 - Page 12 Day2otlk_1730

Tom you may need to get your car ready - tornado threat albeit slight right near you!

Norman OK Update

WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 70-90-KT H5 JET CORE OVERSPREADING THE
WARM SECTOR BUOYANCY ABOVE A SWLY LLJ INCREASING TO 50-60 KT...WIND
PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED...ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZED INTO FAST MOVING
QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES INVOF THE COLD
FRONT. STRONG CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH THIS POTENTIAL BOLSTERED BY
THE STRONG CROSS-FRONTAL...SYNOPTIC PRESSURE RISE-FALL COUPLET.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- E.G. AROUND 30-40 KT OF 0-1-KM BULK
SHEAR -- WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LINE-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES
TO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Mar 11, 2014 5:02 pm

amugs wrote:

Tom you may need to get your car ready - tornado threat albeit slight right near you!

Norman OK Update

WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 70-90-KT H5 JET CORE OVERSPREADING THE
WARM SECTOR BUOYANCY ABOVE A SWLY LLJ INCREASING TO 50-60 KT...WIND
PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED...ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZED INTO FAST MOVING
QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES INVOF THE COLD
FRONT. STRONG CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH THIS POTENTIAL BOLSTERED BY
THE STRONG CROSS-FRONTAL...SYNOPTIC PRESSURE RISE-FALL COUPLET.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- E.G. AROUND 30-40 KT OF 0-1-KM BULK
SHEAR -- WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LINE-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES
TO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

Interesting, this morning they didn't even have a tornado circle or any mention of them. We'll see!

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Mar 11, 2014 5:12 pm

UPTON is thinking a snow storm here Sun night into Monday...

12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARDS 12Z CMC SOLUTION OF A LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE SE STATES SUNDAY...THEN TRACKING NE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NE COASTS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. THE GFS HOWEVER DOES NOT SHOW
AS MUCH INTERACTION WITH A SOUTHERN PROTUBERANCE OF THE POLAR
VORTEX AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...KEEPING THE STORM WELL
TO THE S AND E. GIVEN THE OVERALL SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE OF BOTH THE
CMC AND ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED OVER THE GFS SO FAR THIS YEAR IN THE
LONG TERM...HAVE FAVORED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/CMC FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY.

BASED ON THIS BRING IN CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY SNOW...POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH RAIN TO START ACROSS NYC AND MAYBE LONG ISLAND LATE
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR ALL ZONES FROM
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY...AND A POTENTIAL SECONDARY
LOW LIKELY TRACKS WELL TO THE S AND E. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...IT
IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON AMOUNTS OR POTENTIAL IMPACT.
REMEMBER...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT THE GFS COULD END UP
BEING CORRECT...AND THE AREA REMAIN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Mar 11, 2014 5:13 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:UPTON is thinking a snow storm here Sun night into Monday...

12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARDS 12Z CMC SOLUTION OF A LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE SE STATES SUNDAY...THEN TRACKING NE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NE COASTS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. THE GFS HOWEVER DOES NOT SHOW
AS MUCH INTERACTION WITH A SOUTHERN PROTUBERANCE OF THE POLAR
VORTEX AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...KEEPING THE STORM WELL
TO THE S AND E. GIVEN THE OVERALL SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE OF BOTH THE
CMC AND ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED OVER THE GFS SO FAR THIS YEAR IN THE
LONG TERM...HAVE FAVORED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/CMC FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY.

BASED ON THIS BRING IN CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY SNOW...POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH RAIN TO START ACROSS NYC AND MAYBE LONG ISLAND LATE
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR ALL ZONES FROM
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY...AND A POTENTIAL SECONDARY
LOW LIKELY TRACKS WELL TO THE S AND E. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...IT
IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON AMOUNTS OR POTENTIAL IMPACT.
REMEMBER...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT THE GFS COULD END UP
BEING CORRECT...AND THE AREA REMAIN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Too early and wrong thread.

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Mar 11, 2014 5:17 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:UPTON is thinking a snow storm here Sun night into Monday...

12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARDS 12Z CMC SOLUTION OF A LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE SE STATES SUNDAY...THEN TRACKING NE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NE COASTS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. THE GFS HOWEVER DOES NOT SHOW
AS MUCH INTERACTION WITH A SOUTHERN PROTUBERANCE OF THE POLAR
VORTEX AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...KEEPING THE STORM WELL
TO THE S AND E. GIVEN THE OVERALL SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE OF BOTH THE
CMC AND ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED OVER THE GFS SO FAR THIS YEAR IN THE
LONG TERM...HAVE FAVORED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/CMC FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY.

BASED ON THIS BRING IN CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY SNOW...POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH RAIN TO START ACROSS NYC AND MAYBE LONG ISLAND LATE
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR ALL ZONES FROM
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY...AND A POTENTIAL SECONDARY
LOW LIKELY TRACKS WELL TO THE S AND E. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...IT
IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON AMOUNTS OR POTENTIAL IMPACT.
REMEMBER...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT THE GFS COULD END UP
BEING CORRECT...AND THE AREA REMAIN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Too early and wrong thread.

Woahh, be nice. I know you don't want more snow, NJ, but it's coming before April comes. I feel it. And I agree, it's the wrong thread but it is certainly not too early to discuss this potential. It's 5 days away.

by **pdubz** Tue Mar 11, 2014 7:30 pm

let it snow through April lets break every record!!!

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Mar 11, 2014 8:08 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:UPTON is thinking a snow storm here Sun night into Monday...

12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARDS 12Z CMC SOLUTION OF A LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE SE STATES SUNDAY...THEN TRACKING NE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NE COASTS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. THE GFS HOWEVER DOES NOT SHOW
AS MUCH INTERACTION WITH A SOUTHERN PROTUBERANCE OF THE POLAR
VORTEX AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...KEEPING THE STORM WELL
TO THE S AND E. GIVEN THE OVERALL SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE OF BOTH THE
CMC AND ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED OVER THE GFS SO FAR THIS YEAR IN THE
LONG TERM...HAVE FAVORED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/CMC FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY.

BASED ON THIS BRING IN CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY SNOW...POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH RAIN TO START ACROSS NYC AND MAYBE LONG ISLAND LATE
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR ALL ZONES FROM
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY...AND A POTENTIAL SECONDARY
LOW LIKELY TRACKS WELL TO THE S AND E. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...IT
IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON AMOUNTS OR POTENTIAL IMPACT.
REMEMBER...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT THE GFS COULD END UP
BEING CORRECT...AND THE AREA REMAIN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

I'll take back every bad thing I've said about this winter during the last couple of weeks if just one more storm would deliver.

Who am I kidding I'm never satisfied.

by amyjustice12 Tue Apr 29, 2014 5:14 am

Yeah totally agree with you pdubz that let it snow through and lets break every record... Smile

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