Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

[Quietace]

Spring is fast approaching, as is the Atlantic Hurricane season. Outlets and NHC will release their 2014 outlooks soon.
Start discussing as per the request of Jmanley!

[jmanley32]

This guy has a site full of tropics maps and his first video explaining his sights for the upcoming season.  He is very good and followed by many on another tropics chat I follow. Thanks Ace for setting it up. CSU believe it or not does not have the funding as last I checked to put out a forecast since December. I will look into this but I think it still holds. Anyways here is the site.

tropicaltidbits.com

[NjWeatherGuy]

Heard the same thing about slow Cape Verde but active gulf, we will see! Tracking hurricanes and tropical storms are the most fun. The lowest central pressure was Hurricane Tip in the Pacific with 870mb with sustained winds of 190 miles per hour. Mother nature is impressive.

[Quietace]

Joe Bastardis outlook

[jmanley32]

Well, thats a little disconcerting, we really do not need a major hurricane, hurricane or TS (TS could probably handle, maybe minimal hurricane without the storm surge like Sandy) and even if it didn't hit the Sandy ravaged areas directly those majors take a while to weaken especially since the waters are warm up and down the seaboard. I wouldn't think much of it but he is not the only one I heard that from, Carolinas into new England are at a high risk this year. Mostly from close to land developments.

[skinsfan1177]

The jersey coast is in no way in any shape for any type of hurricane or tropical storm still in recovery mode from Sandy. Beaches are in bad shape

[jmanley32]

skins, I had a bad feeling about this year, I know it would b terrible but we cannot stop mother nature. Just get a preparedness kit together (NWS has great info on how to stay prepared), I have one and I don't even live near the water, but being without lights for 5 days due to sandy was enough, I can only imagine what it was like for those hit the hardest. Whats scary is that technically we are still climatologically overdue for a actual major hurricane hit in LI and NY/Jersey (even a minimal one even more overdue). Its been a very long time and I worry that the coming years might be our time. Lets just hope if something did happen that our mayor in NY has some more sense, I think Jersey did a hek of alot better in preparing than we did. I remember either the day before or night before Bloomberg downplaying it like crazy and I got so mad I wanted to jump into the TV and tell people what was really coming. Then the next morning he totally reverted. In all honestly I think it was NWS fault (not to bash a weather source) but they went far to much on technicallities and now the way they have the warnings and advisories setup will be much better. When someone hears hurricane they take that much more seriously then high wind warning. Albeit I knew thta high wind warning with gusts to 90mph was no joke but other didnt even check.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Joe Bastardis outlook

It's JB, gimme someone reputable lol.

[Quietace]

Joe Bastardis outlook

It's JB, gimme someone reputable lol.

I remember him calling for the same thing last year, but i feel his reasoning is a bit more sound this year when i read his post.

[NjWeatherGuy]

I just do not trust his judgement at all. He has a skill that uses seemingly sound meteorological terms to justify his wacky ideas, he is also able to cover it up when he calls wrong saying that something that his solution needed didnt play out but in reality the models showed this happening and they verify and he didnt. I remember he say 1/27/10 would be 40" along the I-95 corridor, it was a nice storm but correctly modeled at around 20" in the big cities. He has busted on nearly every storm I can remember in recent history besides I believe Sandy but most people knew that would hit and many model runs showed it in the long range.

[Quietace]

I just do not trust his judgement at all. He has a skill that uses seemingly sound meteorological terms to justify his wacky ideas, he is also able to cover it up when he calls wrong saying that something that his solution needed didnt play out but in reality the models showed this happening and they verify and he didnt. I remember he say 1/27/10 would be 40" along the I-95 corridor, it was a nice storm but correctly modeled at around 20" in the big cities. He has busted on nearly every storm I can remember in recent history besides I believe Sandy but most people knew that would hit and many model runs showed it in the long range.

Here is his blog. For the record, i dont think we will have have 2 major hurricanes or 4 hurricanes in our area and i dont agree with his whole blog. That is BS. But I do agree this year has potential to be focused closer to home with development of Systems in the Atlantic. Especially if a Nino continues to develop and SST forecasts stay the same in the Atlantic. I wouldn't mind a few weak to moderate tropical storms that dump rain on the area.


I am trying to get the message across that the Deep Tropics (south of 22.5°N) will have less to much less than normal activity this year. Farther north, the very warm water off of the Eastern Seaboard is a huge problem, along with the El Niño conditions coming on. There have been plenty of El Niño years with high impact seasons for the U.S. coast: 1957, 1965, 1969, 1976, 1983 (fading but still there), 1991, 1992, 2002, and 2004 are examples. The pattern favors storms being stronger (relative to normals) in close to the U.S. rather than in the Deep Tropics.
The ECMWF is in strong agreement with this. Last year, it actually rang a warning bell with its forecast for near normal activity (it also did in 2012 but wasn't too accurate that year). This year, its March tropical forecast is the lowest of all those years (I am restricted from displaying it here).
What is different is that it has a stronger forecast for higher than average activity near the East Coast of the U.S.! I for one have been in awe at the LACK of activity near the East Coast over the last 20 years, given the similar cycle of the 1950's. While people have gawked at Irene and Sandy, they were childs' play compared to the meteorological mayhem of the 1950's or the intensity of 1938 and 1944. There is nothing that says there cannot be another Sandy-type hit from the southeast or three storms up the East Coast in one year in spite of a relatively low number of named storms in a season. The benchmark year on the eastern sea board, 1954, had well below normal tropical activity in the Deep Tropics, with only Hazel being a strong storm south of 20°N.
So there is strong historical support for the ECMWF's idea.
The combination of dry air, what looks to be a colder AMO, a poor setup for the Indian ocean wave train, and the El Niño coming on all argue against higher than normal frequency in the Deep Tropics. I think this a challenging year, one that I think has the greatest threat of higher intensity in closer to the coast, and one where like 2012, warnings may be issued with the first advisory.
A picture is worth a thousand words (above), but to summarize:
Named Storms: 8-10
Hurricanes: 3-5
Major Hurricanes: 1-2
ACE: 75-90% of normal
The number game of course is something I disdain and hope that the overall idea is judged on the merit of the map above. Last year was abysmal, though the combination of some preseason intuition about 1917 and the ECMWF should have tipped me off. The year before, the bang for the buck was good, but the over-development in the mid-latitudes made the ACE get out of control (the metric I trust the most as far as the actual intensity of the season).

[Frank_Wx]

I will have a hurricane outlook out sometime in mid to late May

[jmanley32]

From what I hear the atlantic season call from gray is 9 storms, 3 hurricanes and one major. Wow what a slow season that would be even moreso than last year, wonder if they going conservative due to the flop last year. I do know they reduced the chances of El nino a little but its still projected to happen, but many believe going to be a east coast season this year still with close to home storms like wxbell and tropicaltidbits are calling for.

[jmanley32]

Almost one month to go until hurricane season begins. I will be tracking and posting stuff, if you guys want to join in feel free, I know some only track winter but all season fasinate me.  Could be a early start with some possible develoipment in June (maybe even may according to some sources?)Taking a poll, does anyone think we could have a TS in May like past two years? And one that rides up EC, I believe Andrea did last year and the year before a early storm did too (I could be wrong about 2012), didn't bring but rain and some gusty winds but just curious, if we get a early start storms could happen before the El Nino kicks in and if Bastardi and some others are right we may be in a big threat zone, all we can do is be prepared, I hope that fafter Sandy people up here take storms of the season more seriously even though we are not the "tropics".

[sroc4]

I just do not trust his judgement at all. He has a skill that uses seemingly sound meteorological terms to justify his wacky ideas, he is also able to cover it up when he calls wrong saying that something that his solution needed didnt play out but in reality the models showed this happening and they verify and he didnt. I remember he say 1/27/10 would be 40" along the I-95 corridor, it was a nice storm but correctly modeled at around 20" in the big cities. He has busted on nearly every storm I can remember in recent history besides I believe Sandy but most people knew that would hit and many model runs showed it in the long range.

Here is his blog. For the record, i dont think we will have have 2 major hurricanes or 4 hurricanes in our area and i dont agree with his whole blog. That is BS. But I do agree this year has potential to be focused closer to home with development of Systems in the Atlantic. Especially if a Nino continues to develop and SST forecasts stay the same in the Atlantic. I wouldn't mind a few weak to moderate tropical storms that dump rain on the area.


I am trying to get the message across that the Deep Tropics (south of 22.5°N) will have less to much less than normal activity this year. Farther north, the very warm water off of the Eastern Seaboard is a huge problem, along with the El Niño conditions coming on. There have been plenty of El Niño years with high impact seasons for the U.S. coast: 1957, 1965, 1969, 1976, 1983 (fading but still there), 1991, 1992, 2002, and 2004 are examples. The pattern favors storms being stronger (relative to normals) in close to the U.S. rather than in the Deep Tropics.
The ECMWF is in strong agreement with this. Last year, it actually rang a warning bell with its forecast for near normal activity (it also did in 2012 but wasn't too accurate that year). This year, its March tropical forecast is the lowest of all those years (I am restricted from displaying it here).
What is different is that it has a stronger forecast for higher than average activity near the East Coast of the U.S.! I for one have been in awe at the LACK of activity near the East Coast over the last 20 years, given the similar cycle of the 1950's. While people have gawked at Irene and Sandy, they were childs' play compared to the meteorological mayhem of the 1950's or the intensity of 1938 and 1944. There is nothing that says there cannot be another Sandy-type hit from the southeast or three storms up the East Coast in one year in spite of a relatively low number of named storms in a season. The benchmark year on the eastern sea board, 1954, had well below normal tropical activity in the Deep Tropics, with only Hazel being a strong storm south of 20°N.
So there is strong historical support for the ECMWF's idea.
The combination of dry air, what looks to be a colder AMO, a poor setup for the Indian ocean wave train, and the El Niño coming on all argue against higher than normal frequency in the Deep Tropics. I think this a challenging year, one that I think has the greatest threat of higher intensity in closer to the coast, and one where like 2012, warnings may be issued with the first advisory.
A picture is worth a thousand words (above), but to summarize:
Named Storms: 8-10
Hurricanes: 3-5
Major Hurricanes: 1-2
ACE: 75-90% of normal
The number game of course is something I disdain and hope that the overall idea is judged on the merit of the map above. Last year was abysmal, though the combination of some preseason intuition about 1917 and the ECMWF should have tipped me off. The year before, the bang for the buck was good, but the over-development in the mid-latitudes made the ACE get out of control (the metric I trust the most as far as the actual intensity of the season).

Steve D has a great general tropical outlook. He has a somewhat similar take on the tropics this year as JB. He also talks about the possibility for the potential for hybrid systems affecting the EC. Here is his reasoning.

"The next natural question is what about the hurricane season for the Atlantic? Well, you know with a developing El Nino this Summer, the Sub Tropical jet stream will be rather active and that means strong wind shear will be an issue for the development of tropical low pressure systems.



However, there are some set ups that could be interesting to watch for the East coast. One factor that I'm going to watch for is the interaction of the troughs over the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys with approaching tropical low pressure systems to the east of the Bahamas. The strong shear environment that is expected likely will lead to disorganized tropical low pressure systems. However, the interaction of the high latitude blocking over the northern Atlantic forcing a cool, marine environment over the northern Mid Atlantic with warm, unstable tropical moisture may lead to a significant heavy rainfall event for the region this Summer. I think this threat will be small, but something we need to watch for.



Another concern is the potential for remnant moisture from tropical systems in the Gulf of Mexico to enhance and even slow advancing cold fronts in the Summer, specifically in July and August when these regions are more active.



Finally, we will have to watch for the hybrid storm. Considering the high latitude blocking and the high threat for upper level lows over the Tennessee River Valley to the Southeast coast, there will be a high threat for hybrid, slow moving low pressure systems. These storms are rather tricky to forecast for and will be a constant theme in my opinion over the Southeast and potentially over the Mid Atlantic coastal waters.



Overall, this Atlantic Hurricane Season should be rather quiet, but when the environment sets up to be slightly more favorable, we could have some interesting scenarios to watch out for." Steve Dimartino

[jmanley32]

Well we all know too well what a hybrid storm can do..... I just hope its not rediculously hot this year like its been past few years, I hate 90-110+, too hot!

[jmanley32]

I know its allll the way out there but GFS has a tropical system begin south of jamaica around 300 hrs and in bahamas around 384 hrs, something to watch, like i said we may have development in may.

[jmanley32]

Very interesting, Euro shows what looks could be tropical developing (186 hrs) Just north or around the Bahamas and then heading north and then west, down to 999 off carolinas, rain totals are also crazy for the next 10 days (4-5.5 inches in Jersey! Not saying it will happen but it looks like it could be a tropical wave at least from where it develops. Here is the rainfall forecast all the way 240 hrs out.

[jmanley32]

Then here is progression of system I was talking about.

[jmanley32]

[jmanley32]

[jmanley32]

[jmanley32]

[jmanley32]

GFS has some type of low developing over the atlantic and centering over cape but earlier. And holy crap the CMC has a full fledged hurricane hitting coast at 980mb!

[Quietace]

GFS has some type of low developing over the atlantic and centering over cape but earlier.  And holy crap the CMC has a full fledged hurricane hitting coast at 980mb!

The GEM still has this error in rapidly developing warm core Atlantic systems. Does it all the time. Hopefully it will be fixed when the model is upgraded. Until then you can throw it out.

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