Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

[jmanley32]

Oh I am amateur too otherwise i'd be putting in my resume to do what Cantore does : ) Yeah im a bit risk taker too. Never said I am a expert just been following the logistics of the tropics longer than winter storms. Namely because I couldn't find any really good winter weather places. Love it here BTW, and thanks for putting up with me when I get too excited lol. Any questions maybe I can answer them, if I can't I belong to a tropics forum and may be able to get the answers there. Check it out: myfoxhurricane.com, there is a chat on the side I am "weathernut0628" if you decide to join.

BTW what does everyone think of thos new (IMO) idiotic movie "into the storm"?

[jmanley32]

Check out the train coming off Africa, IMO its going to be a busy August and September, and if the El Nino sets in later we could be in for some crazy nor easters and snow storms yaya!

[jmanley32]

NHC forcast 5 day 70% chance.

[jmanley32]

Very early intensity models have high hopes for this one.Take these graphs with a grain of salt though especially with a invest.  And they change almost every advisory which is 8am 2pm 8pm and 2am.When it is a named storm and a threat its every 3 hours between those hours so 8am, 11am, 2pm, 5pm, 8pm, 11pm, 2am and 5am. Special advisories are made sometimes when hurricane hunters find new important information.

[Quietace]

These graphs are never reliable. I will say that if this storm holds convection over the next day it will form, even with dry air on the north side. Other conditions are too favorable. Will have a td in next 24-36 hours imo

[Quietace]

Still needs time to organize too. Circulation doesn't look to great this morning

[jmanley32]

Well they did say it was in the next 5 days so we will see. But yeah everything else is favorable.

[jmanley32]

After looking over the GEFS there are a few direct hits on mid atlantic/new england and its a very large storm on all of the GEFS models no matter where it goes, many OTS.  Some of them are pretty extreme but I won't get into anything until much later as we do not even have a TD yet.  But look at the size of this wave!

[jmanley32]

Ummmm...if this holds true wow. But as stated earlier these maps are erratic at best. But there is a pretty high collection of those in one spot for a storm that isnt even a TD yet. I have been reading various legit places and its possible it could affect the area in the 7-10 day range. All depends on the high which is and I quote "pulsating in and out" If to be bertha (I think she will develop) gets far enough west and turns north mid atlantic could be at risk. In no way am I hyping this, or wishing it upon anyone just to get that out there. Just sharing info as we go along. If it does become a threat then I will get worried.

[amugs]

All over twitter how this trop wave will become trop depression/ storm Bertha in the next few days. Dry,dusty air is to the north of this but the conditions beyond this look favorable. Time will tell.

[Frank_Wx]

Next

[algae888]

frank I agree. with such a dominate HP over the western atlantic little room for intensification when it gets near east coast. plus there looks to be another strong HP over the great lakes early next week not allowing it to come any where near the coastline. after looking at gfs and ensembles most show a weak disorganized storm that passes well east of us. only a few hits and they look rather weak. going out farther tropics look dead through mid august esp GOM. however season doesn't get cranking til sept imo.

[algae888]

actually after a closer look ensembles most show no storm at all. probably why jman is so quiet today.lol plus euro has no storm and cmc has a weak one that passes well east of Bermuda. this threat that didn't even happen yet is almost history.

[algae888]

All over twitter how this trop wave will become trop depression/ storm Bertha in the next few days. Dry,dusty air is to the north of this but the conditions beyond this look favorable. Time will tell.

mugs its becoming a big problem with tracking storms that don't even exist. to much info and social media out there. talk about K.O.D.
starting to feel that no model should go beyond seven days until there is a more reliable one.

[Quietace]

All over twitter how this trop wave will become trop depression/ storm Bertha in the next few days. Dry,dusty air is to the north of this but the conditions beyond this look favorable. Time will tell.

mugs its becoming a big problem with tracking storms that don't even exist. to much info and social media out there. talk about K.O.D.
starting to feel that no model should go beyond seven days until there is a more reliable one.

The Euro never did much with this storm and was correct in doing that. GFS developed it for days

[jmanley32]

Algae, in all due respect please stop making cracks at me and assumptions, had a very hectic day work and school. 93L is not a give up, just slow to form (which will make it get further west) and the models have been less than helpful this year. And I do not track the tropics because I feel it will hit us or anyone, they are fun to track and plenty of other sites are tracking it too. I believe this thread was made to discuss possible and current tropics but if I am mistaken let me know frank and I will stop until one knocks on our door, which ya probably not going to happen, but when it does and I helped people know ahead of time I am sure I will be thanked. To say Sandy didnt make a hit on NY is rediculous, yes center made landfall in NJ but look what it did to LI and NYC and 1000 miles all around. And IMO we have not seen the last of these super storms so thats why I consider everything and when its finished its finished, I move on, its weather its bound to disappoint so I have gotten used to that. Still has a 70% chance and the satelite looks really good for a invest. where will it go and future intensity is yet to be seen and I have not even really watched the models on this one as I feel they aren't doing it justice. Just my opinion on that last part. Could be wrong and not affraid to admit it if I am.

[gigs68]

Well said Jman. Keep posting your thoughts. I enjoy reading them and I'm sure others do as well

[jmanley32]

Thanks gigs, sorry got on a little rant there, I try to be helpful and informative regardless of the outcome but seem to just get shot down. Even our top notch guy Frank says next lol. And he as we know is pretty darn good at predicting things for our area. But again for the record I like the weather and dynamics even if it isnt in my backyard, ya of course not as fun (talking snow here) not tropics thats not FUN getting damage like we did with Sandy, just saying. BTW algae did you go 6 days without power in the freezing cold with a pregnant wife and no way to shower and still have to go to work....I did.

[algae888]

jman all in jest my friend.I'm a winter weather guy never really excited about summer weather. this is the first year i'm following the season. didn't really know people liked getting hit with tornadoes an hurricanes and severe t/storms. always felt people were intrigued by them but wished they stayed far from there backyard. but this summer from this website and others there really are people who want them in their back yard. its mind boggling to me and lets not deny that there are people out there who really want them to happen. as for sandy, it didn't directly affect us. it was caught up in a much larger system so large(she looked like a dot on a map) that when she made landfall satellite imagery couldn't even make her out. know your weather jman!

[algae888]

and yes I was 7 days with out power and huge trees were down all over the place. couldn't get my car out of my block for a week. no my wife wasn't pregnant she had passed on in may of that year so I didn't experience that.

[jmanley32]

Sorry to hear that algae about your wife (I am going to have to agree to disagree about the impacts of sandy), what do you mean sandy was a dot? She was 900 miles across and as you can see by my avatar she is clearly visible. Yes you are right there are people that wish for severe weather, this is why I understand snow, but at the same time snow can cause damage and big problems too like the snowstorm right after x-mas where ambulances couldn't get to people who were sick or dying and bulldozers were crushing parked cars (if you didnt see that video you need to). SO I can see how you would be baffled by that but I think its the shear power of a hurricane or tornado that intrigues us weather "nuts" lets call our class lol, and then when it hits its not so fun and then we forget again. So glad you are a snow weenie as am I, but I also am intrigued as you say by all other facets of weather, even calm and nice weather. Its all cool to me, no pun intended since yesterday hah.

[jmanley32]

As for 93L taking her sweet time or it I should say. I am skeptical about this system now too. just checked GFS and it totally never really develops and then dies out. So for now unless there are drastic changes like becoming a TD or Bertha I am not going to speak on a storm that has not even formed.

[Quietace]

I dont think we need to debate the impacts of Sandy on our area. I think it is obvious the destruction she caused.

[jmanley32]

Thank you ace, no i should not be feeding into this I am too busy for that. And yes Frank NEXT! 93L is down to a 50/50 chance and lets call it a dud. I think I will modify my ways with this thread and WHEN we have TD I will make posts. Other than that its just not worth the time, and it doesn't seem that too many are interested in summer wx, so I can't wait to get back to the excited weenies here for snow : )

[jmanley32]

93L blowing up some deep convection near its center for several hours now, we may not be done with this system, or it could just be temporary. We will see.

[jmanley32]

As you may already know we now have Bertha nearing the lesser antilles, current cone takes it OTS but we still need to watch as currently she is chugging mostly west and we all know the surprise Irene gave us. Disorganized but has convection now and winds of 50mph up from 45mph last night. When was the last time we went from invest to TS, I don't think we skip TD very often. Tack takes it up to a 60mph TS now, last night was only 45mph as it headed north. Intensity models show a strong Cat 1 but those are less than reliable.

[gigs68]

glad your back jman- I enjoy the updates

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