Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

[amugs]

Gonzalo recurving to far west to get captured by the cut off low or else we'd be talking about  the possibility of a hcan coming up the coast - Scott made this ppoint last Thurs/Fri in a post.

[jmanley32]

Gonzalo is a absolute monster for a October classic look hurricane, Am very worried for Bermuda. They look to get a cat 3. Noted the ensembles track it ever so slightly to the west now spliting between a nnova sotia hit to further east. One lowly ensemble run takes it over northern Maine THAT would not be good but very unlikely, unless this thing decides to continue to chug NW and nor north, is that ULL strong enough to fight off a cat 4 hurricane? I understand its projected track but this system coming off the US seems pretty weak in comparison so what is keeping it from going NW?

[jmanley32]

WOW....

[Frank_Wx]

Gonzalo is a absolute monster for a October classic look hurricane, Am very worried for Bermuda.  They look to get a cat 3.  Noted the ensembles track it ever so slightly to the west now spliting between a nnova sotia hit to further east.  One lowly ensemble run takes it over northern Maine THAT would not be good but very unlikely, unless this thing decides to continue to chug NW and nor north, is that ULL strong enough to fight off a cat 4 hurricane?  I understand its projected track but this system coming off the US seems pretty weak in comparison so what is keeping it from going NW?

Yes, a storm that's phased into a trough is sufficient enough to steer a hurricane away from our coast

[algae888]

jman if you look at the 500mb map hr 42 from tonights gfs gonzalo is about 1/10th the size of the trough over the n/e. though gonzalo is powerful at the surface, in the upper atmosphere its not really that big compared to whats going on around it.

[algae888]

as you go further on the 500mb map gonzalo is captured by the trough and is steered nn/e. if you play it fast, it (gonzalo) looks like a bowling ball being tossed down a lane and ends up in the right side gutter.

[jmanley32]

Hey Al, yeah its safe for us but man Bermuda is gonna get battered. Interests turn to area whjere Sandy formed in 2012 next week, models do show development out of that area or eastern GOM, we will have to see but this is coming close to a average season, which was not expected. ACE is also nearing normal 70, especially if we get one or two named storms more.

[sroc4]

http://stormw.wordpress.com/

[gigs68]

anyone know of some good Bermuda webcams we can look at?

[Dunnzoo]

http://www.portbermudawebcam.com/

[gigs68]

Thanks for the link. Great webcam you can see and hear how much the winds have picked up and that camera is in the northern part of Bermuda

[jmanley32]

It's start get rough over there.

[jmanley32]

Dayumm, and this isnt even at the center yet, yikes.

http://portbermudawebcam.com/

[jmanley32]

I guess the tropics decided October would be its mont, what a odd place to see a potential development in the way eastern atlantic. The one in GOM per CMC may be what accuwx is catching onto around halloween, as they say high winds over 50mph gists and heavy rain. So far GFS shows it OTS. And as we know CMC can often be WRONG.

[jmanley32]

CMC 216 hrs, not good if its true, same time as you know who two years ago. Certainly not same intensity though, not putting much stance into this unless other models come on and when it gets into 5 day.

[jmanley32]

While Gonzalo is now a powerful subtropical system with 80mph winds headed for UK, yeah thats pretty rare, we may have to watch the system i posted of cmc as GFS now shows it coming up the coast too.

[jmanley32]

Well we have invests 92l and 93L, 92L is way in the north eastern atlantic (kinda a odd place, but no chance of affecting any land). 93L is up to a 60% chance of development in the BOC i nthe 5 day and is basically headed to FL lenninusula then ensembles get interesting we could be looking at it heading up this way at least up to the carolinas, but the sgetti charts change all the time. Something to watch IMO, subtropical or coastal if anything at all. Models have shown it making it up this far but its too far off to say right now. Better I dea once we have a depression and looks to stay weak, although most of the storms this season have over performed. Seems the season wanted to wait till the very end to get a bit more active. We are actually at a normal season now with a ACE near 70 and we are next on the list for Hanna.

[jmanley32]

Ensemble tracks.

[sroc4]

http://stormw.wordpress.com/

[jmanley32]

It ain't over look what i posted on long range, hey its the CMA, but who knows it does not have the worst track record being introduced on wxbell this year.

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