Official Long Range Thread 3.0
+29
Dtone
Vinnydula
Isotherm
sroc4
HectorO
mako460
HeresL
devsman
Snow88
nutleyblizzard
Analog96
oldtimer
nofoboater
GreyBeard
essexcountypete
skinsfan1177
algae888
Math23x7
Dunnzoo
jmanley32
SoulSingMG
pdubz
docstox12
aiannone
amugs
CPcantmeasuresnow
Quietace
NjWeatherGuy
Frank_Wx
33 posters
Page 3 of 32
Page 3 of 32 • 1, 2, 3, 4 ... 17 ... 32
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
jmanley32 wrote:You guys thought the Euro was bonkers yesterday check this out! NOW wait till this hits facebook! Holy crap, just imagine! Would be a record I imagine, Euro has a low stalling off coast and then moving due east. 30-40 inches, in April yeah ok, if this verified I would have to come up with something even more nutty to do than make snow angels in my jockeys lol.
They should be shot for even allowing this nonsense - do you know what type of storm dynamics we would need for such a storm - I am not even talking about April!!
The EURO I hanging out in that garage in Denver again like Upton was at times this winter -HAHAHA!
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15093
Join date : 2013-01-07
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
mugs, Bastardi, thinks this is a concern, and albeit there is going to be a cold drop but this looks way to nuts for mid april. No actually I have no clue as to what we would need for a 20-40 inche snowstorm in mid april is that even possible?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Join date : 2013-12-12
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
I need to make it clear though that I by no means really believe what he says but he certainly has quite a video about it on wxbell. And how could they stop this "nonsense" its a model its going to throw out what it does, right? Unless we upgrade it I don't see improvements in long run, and Euro usually is our best long ranger but has shown many of these type storms this year to never happen let alone in friggin april.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
You know the highest shaded area kinda looks like a alien sitting its butt right on NYC lol, Euro's little april fools joke to late?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
amugs wrote:jmanley32 wrote:You guys thought the Euro was bonkers yesterday check this out! NOW wait till this hits facebook! Holy crap, just imagine! Would be a record I imagine, Euro has a low stalling off coast and then moving due east. 30-40 inches, in April yeah ok, if this verified I would have to come up with something even more nutty to do than make snow angels in my jockeys lol.
They should be shot for even allowing this nonsense - do you know what type of storm dynamics we would need for such a storm - I am not even talking about April!!
The EURO I hanging out in that garage in Denver again like Upton was at times this winter -HAHAHA!
Mugs:
We had this exact storm 4 years ago February 26, 2010. The snowfall totals on that map identical for most in our area.
Of course that was February this is the middle of April, it is a 1,000,000 to 1 maybe less.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
CP - I hear ya !
the odds have decreased to 999,000 to 1 - LOL!
If we do get something like this I will do a snow angel in my tighty whiteys with my crown on!!
the odds have decreased to 999,000 to 1 - LOL!
If we do get something like this I will do a snow angel in my tighty whiteys with my crown on!!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
mugs, here is another map which shows this beast, i will hold you to that! Strange the way that rediculous precip goes up like that, and in 6 hrs, thats a insane snow rate.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
How long would this have to hold on on the models for anyone to start to think it was even a 1:1,000,000? The other models are showing a storm too in this time frame, just not a frankroidzilla.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
jmanley32 wrote:How long would this have to hold on on the models for anyone to start to think it was even a 1:1,000,000? The other models are showing a storm too in this time frame, just not a frankroidzilla.
How about the day before, even then I would have my doubts.
Euro has shown at least a half dozen storms like this in the long range the past 5 months and none came to fruition. It may even be more than that I've lost track.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
I hear ya CP, it'll probably be gone at least as snow in coming days, if not then we can get excited, man what a day it would be to get a blizzard in mid/late april. But as stated 999,000:1, if its rain thats still pretty crazy 6-8 inches.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
No merit to that storm. Pattern doesn't support one. Ignore.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
Won't happen
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
Just curious, how do you go back to older snow maps for Euro on wxbell? When I go to past runs there is no snowfall choice. Is there another archieve, or can you only view it run by run? I know this isnt going to happen but I had been wondering this since I joined.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
jmanley32 wrote:Just curious, how do you go back to older snow maps for Euro on wxbell? When I go to past runs there is no snowfall choice. Is there another archieve, or can you only view it run by run? I know this isnt going to happen but I had been wondering this since I joined.
I think on the left hand side you can go back to older runs. But I don't think there is a way to see something from last week or something.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
jmanley32 wrote:Just curious, how do you go back to older snow maps for Euro on wxbell? When I go to past runs there is no snowfall choice. Is there another archieve, or can you only view it run by run? I know this isnt going to happen but I had been wondering this since I joined.
What interests me more are the EURO ensembles, with each snowfall totals on each member I take a screen-cap of each EURO ENS run and save it onto my computer. With the exception of the 1/10 0Z EURO ENS, I have every snowfall run saved since late last December. Maybe in a couple of weeks, I can put it all together to show you.
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 2379
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
Ok, are the ensembles more accurate for all weather senarios?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
Gfs has a storm for next tues thru thurs with over 6 inches of rain. Does anyone think we will get this storm.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
Which GFS run? The 12z is total from today to 192 hrs, of 3-5 inches, not a big one.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
I do not see a single GFS run that has 6 inches of rain, algae where did you see this?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
jmanley32 wrote:I do not see a single GFS run that has 6 inches of rain, algae where did you see this?
if you go from hr 162 to hr 216 there is about 6" of rain on the 12z gfs
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
Hey algae, well total qpf on 12z according to wxbell does amount to that, through hour 240. But maybe we are looking at different things.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
You know what ur probably right wxbell actually only goes to 192 hrs and its up to 4-5 by then. I think 18z backed down though.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
WPC saying a decent rain again Fri - early AM Sat
Euro saying .50"+ as well
Tis the season folks!! - no not xmass lol
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
Gfs for next week
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
Euro showing a considerable cool down after the nice warm up sun and mon - midweek it says 10* below normal
http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=eu1nyx&s=8#.U0Xmxsu9KSM
http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=eu1nyx&s=8#.U0Xmxsu9KSM
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
Looks like it will be at just about freezing to about 40* Wednesday and Thursday.....brrrrr
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4892
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 62
Location : Westwood, NJ
Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0
I'm not enthused about much rain Friday into Saturday morning. Around half an inch. That's about it. Which is not much.
We will be looking at a decent warmup thanks to a cutoff low in the Midwest helping to pump heights along the eastern seaboard Sunday into Monday. Definitely 60's and possibly low 70's on Monday.
Then the middle of next week temps take a drop unfortunately. Looking at temps around 3-5 degrees below average. Maybe a day late next week not getting out of the 40's. Lots of 50-degree readings expected. I do not expect it to last though since I think this -EPO regime breaks down sooner than we have seen in the winter. I think by Easter weekend, we will be warming up again to slightly above average.
We will be looking at a decent warmup thanks to a cutoff low in the Midwest helping to pump heights along the eastern seaboard Sunday into Monday. Definitely 60's and possibly low 70's on Monday.
Then the middle of next week temps take a drop unfortunately. Looking at temps around 3-5 degrees below average. Maybe a day late next week not getting out of the 40's. Lots of 50-degree readings expected. I do not expect it to last though since I think this -EPO regime breaks down sooner than we have seen in the winter. I think by Easter weekend, we will be warming up again to slightly above average.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Page 3 of 32 • 1, 2, 3, 4 ... 17 ... 32
Page 3 of 32
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|