Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 25, 2014 3:01 pm

Winds would be severe if this storm happened this way, and I wont even bother with the snow map (as sroc said no way to tell until its near crunch time) but well north and west of here lets just saw woah.

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 30 Wind_e10

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 30 Wind_e10

by **amugs** Sat Oct 25, 2014 3:06 pm

12 ZEuro on boar with GFS (6Z for this system so far as CMC - things to watch out for - would be Saturday storm - could be cold rain for coast and wet snows inland - CP, Snow and Doc - maybe yuor winter if we cna get the trend of this for DJF!!

A lot of time but can't wait for this hype to hit the net and social media - I am patiently going to wait but one thing is f or sure after we hit 70's Tuesday (?) then by Thurs morning we are looking at a freeze for the metro area and weekend looks cold low to mid 40's for NYC metro - id teh data is correct - time will tell.

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 25, 2014 3:07 pm

Oh boy if I stay calm there will always be someone else, JB is starting in on it, at least he is not posting snow maps, but shows the giant trough in southeast up into midatlantic, wow and what a ridge! IMO just a gut feeling get prepared for a blockbuster storm next Sat-Monday (1-3rd), maybe snow, IMO somewhere but will it be in the area? It looks like we will be ok for halloween unless things really speed up.

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 25, 2014 3:09 pm

mugs so you think this monster is a possibility with the setup etc, even 7 days out? That 12z euro run was quite something. Was that a full phase or was it a secondary low developing after the two passed?

by **amugs** Sat Oct 25, 2014 3:50 pm

Jman,

Things are "POSSIBLE" not a given.

I have learned that over the years of reading about big storms they usually come when the AO and NAO are going from a decently negative state to a neutral slightly positive state and that is what is occurring. There are a few other factors as well -+PNA for one but I am not counting any chickens just yet - we get to Tues 00Z & Wed 6Z and 12Z runs ugh we still see this then we can start but in the mean time I am enjoying the great fall weather.

AO was a neg 4 + and NAO was a 3+ - analogs being PD storm, Nemo

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 25, 2014 4:22 pm

Well I don't imagine we would have a blizzard first few days of november. But wouldn't that be something. Sounds like all the patterns are promoting a big significant storm but yeah 12z on Tues or Wed. We know much better. And I am too out in park with my daughter. Today is great.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Oct 25, 2014 4:26 pm

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 30 Ecmwf_z500_vort_conus2_35

Holy crap. The EURO once again closes off H5 like it did this past week to form another coastal storm. This time, there is colder air involved due to the amplitude of the polar stream energy diving into the eastern CONUS. It's not exactly a clean phase since some energy scoots ahead of the primary surface low, but there does appear to be a Miller-B component to the storm with how it transfers energy off the coast.

Still in the early stages. The GFS keeps both streams separate still. The GFS has a bias of being too progressive, so a phased out storm given the way the western ridge looks would not shock me. However, determining how the phase evolves will be key. A clean phase would develop a strong system capable of manufacturing it's own cold air. Would be a lot of dynamics involved. I don't think that will happen since the blocking doesn't impress me. But we'll see.

by **sroc4** Sat Oct 25, 2014 4:28 pm

Interesting 12z runs. LOOOOONNNGG way to go though.

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 30 Dog-ears-and-smile

by **sroc4** Sat Oct 25, 2014 4:37 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:

Holy crap. The EURO once again closes off H5 like it did this past week to form another coastal storm. This time, there is colder air involved due to the amplitude of the polar stream energy diving into the eastern CONUS. It's not exactly a clean phase since some energy scoots ahead of the primary surface low, but there does appear to be a Miller-B component to the storm with how it transfers energy off the coast.

Still in the early stages. The GFS keeps both streams separate still. The GFS has a bias of being too progressive, so a phased out storm given the way the western ridge looks would not shock me. However, determining how the phase evolves will be key. A clean phase would develop a strong system capable of manufacturing it's own cold air. Would be a lot of dynamics involved. I don't think that will happen since the blocking doesn't impress me. But we'll see.

GFS def has had the southern stream progressive bias. The CMC is on board now with a nice amped ridge compared to its 00z. Still not going to believe the hype just yet but there is def some percolation going on inside these bones.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Oct 25, 2014 4:40 pm

Here's the scaenrios...

#1 is shown by the GFS of keeping the northern and southern streams separate which would not promote cyclogenesis. The likely outcome would be rain/snow showers from the H5 vort within the trough. Also some intense cold air to follow.

#2 is depicted by the EURO with the southern stream energy (which ejects out of the polar jet stream and digs into the southeastern US) phasing with the northern stream vort. It's not exactly a clean phase since some H5 energy scoots ahead of the main complex, but it still evolves a coastal storm nonetheless and there may be a Miller-B component involved, verbatim.

#3 is not really shown on any model and likely won't happen due to insufficient blocking, but that would be more of a Miller-A type with intense dynamics. Don't expect that to happen.

by **Quietace** Sat Oct 25, 2014 4:41 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:

Holy crap. The EURO once again closes off H5 like it did this past week to form another coastal storm. This time, there is colder air involved due to the amplitude of the polar stream energy diving into the eastern CONUS. It's not exactly a clean phase since some energy scoots ahead of the primary surface low, but there does appear to be a Miller-B component to the storm with how it transfers energy off the coast.

Still in the early stages. The GFS keeps both streams separate still. The GFS has a bias of being too progressive, so a phased out storm given the way the western ridge looks would not shock me. However, determining how the phase evolves will be key. A clean phase would develop a strong system capable of manufacturing it's own cold air. Would be a lot of dynamics involved. I don't think that will happen since the blocking doesn't impress me. But we'll see.

Verbatim, 850s on the Euro are cold for the track and phase. I was suprised to see 850s only near +1.5*c in most of the area. As you said a clean phase and better low position may bring frozen precip closer to the tri-state with that strong of a Low. Interesting early season setup. Time to stay up late and follow models closer for me.

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 30 Ecmwf_12

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 30 Ecmwf_12

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 30 Ecmwf_13

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 30 Ecmwf_14

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Oct 25, 2014 4:48 pm

Snow-wise I think the interior northeast needs to keep a close eye. They're in a much better spot, obviously, than we are this time of year

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 25, 2014 5:01 pm

Even if we put snow off the table this could still be a big rain and wind maker yes? Maybe even moreso than the lat one with the current Euro run that is. Frank can you please remind me what a Miller A & B are and what they would produce, I will be sure to jot it down o I remember all winter (my memory i horrible). Your saying holy crap is a good sign for a storm for me lol. You don't say that too often : )

NVM I found it so basically an A would promote a snow even more than a B and you said a B is more likely.

by **docstox12** Sat Oct 25, 2014 5:09 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Snow-wise I think the interior northeast needs to keep a close eye. They're in a much better spot, obviously, than we are this time of year

Still many,many days away from this but your statement makes me feel great being up in the HV instead of Mahwah Bergen County.Slop in Mahwah.....snow in HV.

Hey, at least there is something interesting on the board this early in the season.

by **Dunnzoo** Sat Oct 25, 2014 5:18 pm

[quote="docstox12"]

Frank_Wx wrote:
Still many,many days away from this but your statement makes me feel great being up in the HV instead of Mahwah Bergen County.Slop in Mahwah.....snow in HV.

Hey, at least there is something interesting on the board this early in the season.

Haha doc, you should change your location on your profile. Razz

by **docstox12** Sat Oct 25, 2014 5:21 pm

Think I'll keep it the same right now.

I'll still have a foot in Mahwah as I am renovating my house for sale in April 2015 so I will still be observing things there as I work.

Will change my profile when the closing on my house sale occurs.Been there 34 1/2 years so it's tough to get used to being in the HV.At least until a borderline storm,LOL!

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 25, 2014 6:17 pm

Slop or snow, no good with leaves on the trees!

by **Math23x7** Sat Oct 25, 2014 7:08 pm

Frank, with something to track next week, do you intend to start a 2014-15 Winter Contest thread anytime soon?

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Oct 25, 2014 11:33 pm

Math23x7 wrote:Frank, with something to track next week, do you intend to start a 2014-15 Winter Contest thread anytime soon?

Yea, I'll start it tonight

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sun Oct 26, 2014 1:08 am

If we do get a major snow from this it would be the third time in the last 4 years we had significant snow in the last week of October-first week of November period. I doubt at this stage it happens but if recent history holds,,,

October 29, 2011 3-5 inches in NYC and up to 18 inches of snow in the HV.
November 6, 2012 NYC metro gets 5 inches in Central Park and 8-10 inches in parts of Queens and Brooklyn.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Oct 26, 2014 1:29 am

GFS is not budging. Insists on the southern stream getting too far ahead thus preventing a phase.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Oct 26, 2014 1:42 am

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 30 Test8

Geez, differences between EURO (left) and GFS (right) are pretty drastic at H5 in the 7-10 day range

by **jmanley32** Sun Oct 26, 2014 6:28 am

Umm anyone who has wxbell, what happened to the maps lol, there is no world anymore just weather ahhh!!! They must have a issue as there is no outline of the landmasses. Anyways judging from where I can guess they are the GFS def has nothing and the Euro is not a strong as yesterday and further East. CMC also has nothing, sigh the wonderment continues.

by **docstox12** Sun Oct 26, 2014 7:07 am

jmanley32 wrote:Slop or snow, no good with leaves on the trees!

Agree 100% after that October disaster a few years ago.Multiple branches down and massive power outages for days.

Agree with Hector.Flurries onkly please until the end of November when all the leaves are finally down.

by **sroc4** Sun Oct 26, 2014 7:18 am

Im having the same issue as you Jman. Frustrating to say the least. Some observations with the teleconnections. Both the Euro and GFS are similar in predicting a + PNA(ridging in the west) between +1 to +1.5. Euro and GFS are similar in its prediction of the NAO going neg for the time of our storm; however, the Euro only has it going to -0.5 to -1; whereas, the GFS predicts it at -1.5 to -2. I suppose in theory with a stronger blocking signal the GFS should be slower with its southern energy but it has insisted on it being out ahead of the N piece; although there a progressive bias in that model. Frank has been eluding to the fact that the blocking has not looked all that impressive on the modeling thus far, and he may as well be correct leading to a more progressive soln. The Euro took some steps toward that overnight, but it was just one run. Another interesting observation is the stark differences between the Euro and GFS in the predicted AO for that time frame. The Euro has it just slight neg (-0.3) to neutral; whereas, the GFS is predicting an AO around -2. Pretty big differences to me. What does it all mean you ask? Im not exactly sure yet, but I dont think the models are finished shifting their solns for better or worse. There is still a ways to go with so many working pieces. I would not be surprised to see the models shift back towards the large closed ULL soln.

Hopefully Weather Bell will fix their issue. I tried to post images of the teleconnections from their site to go along with what I wrote above, but when I tried to upload it told me file was corrupt.

by **jmanley32** Sun Oct 26, 2014 7:40 am

Yeah none of their maps show anything but the wx, what are we paying for, it helps to know WHERE the weather is lol. Yeah I looked at the Euro in another place and it really pushed east like the GFS more progressive. I agree sroc and I hate to say it doc but something tells me we are in for a doozy with possible snow, even if it were like the Euro yesterday with rain we would be talking winds 70+ kts off coast of NJ and NY some of it getting inland so us near the coast would still get slammed with power outages although not as widespread as in 2011, wet snow really does a number on trees with leaves. I remember reading somewhere that each larger branch extension is weighted down with a few hundred pounds of snow on large trees with leaves, thats crazy!

by **skinsfan1177** Sun Oct 26, 2014 7:58 am

I remember the models always going east then bringing the storm back to our west . Wasn't that always the trend the last few years.

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