Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

[jmanley32]

Yeah none of their maps show anything but the wx, what are we paying for, it helps to know WHERE the weather is lol. Yeah I looked at the Euro in another place and it really pushed east like the GFS more progressive. I agree sroc and I hate to say it doc but something tells me we are in for a doozy with possible snow, even if it were like the Euro yesterday with rain we would be talking winds 70+ kts off coast of NJ and NY some of it getting inland so us near the coast would still get slammed with power outages although not as widespread as in 2011, wet snow really does a number on trees with leaves. I remember reading somewhere that each larger branch extension is weighted down with a few hundred pounds of snow on large trees with leaves, thats crazy!

[skinsfan1177]

I remember the models always going east then bringing the storm back to our west . Wasn't that always the trend the last few years.

[jmanley32]

Sure was, at least last year when I joined here and you all pointed that out.

[sroc4]

From the NWS at Upton about this system:

"BUT THURSDAY IS DRY ONCE
AGAIN. THEN...UNSETTLED CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS AT THIS TIME."

Sooo what your saying is that its not clear yet how this is going to play out? Exactly. Remember not to live and die over any one single run at this point. Trends are our friends. Remember this because this type of thing is probably going to happen throughout the winter (At least we all can hope). That is that this far out there is a signal for a storm somewhere at or near the coast possibly, potentially, allegedly, supposedly. That is all this really is at this time frame. Don't believe the hype...the good, the bad, and the ugly. The details will start to become clearer over the next few days.

[sroc4]

I remember the models always going east then bringing the storm back to our west . Wasn't that always the trend the last few years.

It was; however, the second half of last winter was to trend south and east; colder and dryer. Last winter we had a polar vortex displaced very far south, and stronger than predicted in the long term due to the -EPO pattern which just poured the cold air into the eastern 1/3rd of the country. But we had no blocking so storms tended to head further south and slip OTS at least later on. If blocking in the long term for this winter is undermodeled, which we can only hope, the trend should come back west. We shall see.

[jmanley32]

LOL so clear and concise sroc and NWS, only weather is the job you can say who knows, and still get paid. For us its just purely for fun? What weenie are we lol.

[jmanley32]

06z GFS brings a strong low down from the north then to the eat off cape cod at 988mb,
Wow on the 850mb winds at 162 hrs, regardless of precip or type there has been clear signals of a big wind event on both models (only one that is a real outlier is the CMC) hasn't really shown anything. Soon we should get NAVGEM in the picture and then NAM.



 Last few runs didn't even show a strong northern energy at all, yes its still days away from getting any agreement (if they ever do) but I am still curious about each run (except the 18z GFS) I too like mugs do not really trust the 18z.

[docstox12]

Yeah none of their maps show anything but the wx, what are we paying for, it helps to know WHERE the weather is lol.  Yeah I looked at the Euro in another place and it really pushed east like the GFS more progressive.  I agree sroc and I hate to say it doc but something tells me we are in for a doozy with possible snow, even if it were like the Euro yesterday with rain we would be talking winds 70+ kts off coast of NJ and NY some of it getting inland so us near the coast would still get slammed with power outages although not as widespread as in 2011, wet snow really does a number on trees with leaves.  I remember reading somewhere that each larger branch extension is weighted down with a few hundred pounds of snow on large trees with leaves, thats crazy!  

Seems like the models are doing their usual thing this far out though it is very interesting to see this early fall set up.

Yep,jman, those leaves are a magnet for wet snow, seems like it glues on to them.It was sickening hearing all those limbs cracking off every few minutes in that Oct 2011 storm.Power was out 8 days but I got lucky.An 8 inch limb landed on top of my power line but didn't sever it.Not to put a damper on this but I'm hoping for the non-phase model to occur.Let's leaves these big noreasters until late Nov on.

[amugs]

JMAN - ^^^ that spells trouble - the 00Z, 6Z and 12 Z runs I follow the most and tak eteh 18Z with a grain of salt.
Okay - CP - maybe you can help with this but the AO and NAO as I posted a number of posts back is going from a deep negative state into a low/neutral to slight positive - we have seen a number of times an east coast storm.

Things are interesting and fun cause we finally have something to track - just a feeling that this "could" be the norm this winter season +PNA, -AO and -NAO with a decent STJ to help kick things in along with the GOM - the weenie wish!

[nutleyblizzard]

JMAN - ^^^ that spells trouble - the 00Z, 6Z and 12 Z runs I follow the most and tak eteh 18Z with a grain of salt.
Okay - CP - maybe you can help with this but the AO and NAO as I posted a number of posts back is going from a deep negative state into a low/neutral to slight positive - we have seen a number of times an east coast storm.

Things are interesting and fun cause we finally have something to track - just a feeling that this "could" be the norm this winter season +PNA, -AO and -NAO with a decent STJ to help kick things in along with the GOM - the weenie wish!

I was just going to post those same thoughts myself. Very encouraging to see these coastals with the tracks to the benchmark this fall. I feel it will get mighty interesting around here in about a month or so.

[algae888]

all of a sudden everything has flipped.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.01.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.01.gif

last week cpc had us torching early to mid November. now we may end up 10* below normal.
last week they had the nao and ao + and pna -. clearly they are wrong.

[algae888]

actually the ao/nao are positive but heading neg. maybe -2. pna is neutral heading slightly positive. last week cpc had nao/ao staying pos and pna heading neg. just goes to show us how quickly weather can change.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

[jmanley32]

mugs what do you mean by "trouble" and in regards to what, I said a lot of things this morning lol. If you are talking about the graphic I posted its a odd track it comes from the north, it doesn't go off shore, it goes across NE from the great lakes in a SE fashion and into cape and ots (kind of a oddball track to me). I do not think its a phase but I could be wrong. Oh and its also almost completely dry down here snow up north. Also that CMC doesn't show its aggressive self spells trouble, if it isn't seeing what GFS and Euro are seeing this may come up even bigger than its showing now since Euro tends to play things conservative and GFS is kinda in between(however GFS has been less than reliable this year but maybe that will change with the seasons) we will see, interested in wondering what 12z will show.

[amugs]

all of a sudden everything has flipped.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.01.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.01.gif

last week cpc had us torching early to mid November. now we may end up 10* below normal.
last week they had the nao and ao + and pna -. clearly they are wrong.

Al look at CFSv2 this week showed as compared to two weeks ago - an all out torch through nov into dec - now shows us going into the freezer not the fridge starting early dec with near normal temps for Nov. this is what the cpc uses not the jamstec. I have learned and read to take these long ranges with a Grain of salt with a changing pattern. We, well the PAC is changing trying to go weak nino to maybe moderate by JFM more FM IMO so the changes can be like flipping a switch and let's not forget the snow/ ice in Siberia which can affect things as well to a degree.  

Got to love these " possiblities" my gut says by wed this board starts rockin'! .

Also, just to my point that we r coming out of a mid to low negative readings on the NAO and AO  when east coast storms like to pop. We shall see.

[Frank_Wx]

12z GFS phases the storm but too late for our area. Turns into a northern New England special. Still a variety of possibilities on the table. The cold front that passes through on Wednesday this week could be an important piece. If it slows down, it may give the short wave energy a chance to phase sooner. We'll see

[algae888]

12z GFS phases the storm but too late for our area. Turns into a northern New England special. Still a variety of possibilities on the table. The cold front that passes through on Wednesday this week could be an important piece. If it slows down, it may give the short wave energy a chance to phase sooner. We'll see

frank 12z gfs 500mb much improved from previous runs. ridge in west is better and n/s energy is quicker. phase looks closer. I looked at 500mb map 1st and when I saw surface I was surprised thought we had the phase. any way progress was made imo

[jmanley32]

12z GFS looks virtually the same, high wind event for coastal CT inthe NYC area with little if any precip, all goes into northern NE, with ridiculous amounts of snow up there if the GFS were to pan out. Steps in right direction as Al said. The Euro should be interesting, and yes mugs if this all continues to trend toward a storm by wed I imagine it will be, when would we put up a seperate thread maybe Tuesday 4-5 days before?

[aiannone]

I'm very busy with school work but I will now be making time to post here and track this storm being that here in NERN VT, this could be our first winter storm of the year. Talk is already starting here at the school. Tons of things to work out though but I will be tracking starting with today's 18z runs

[jmanley32]

Hey mets good to have ya around! Being your headed to promet, your insight will be great. Do you feel there is any chance we could get a biggie down here (even if its not snow?) A few runs have showed snow down this way though. I would love to be at your school its hard to find people to talk to about weather, LOL. Most people don't give a rats a++, until it happens, then they complain.

[SoulSingMG]

Do I hear something cooking on the burner?? What's up guys & gals!

One thing looks certain as of now: We're in for a NIPPY Halloween.

[jmanley32]

Burner, more like the ice box potentially. : ) Yep soulsing, going to get very interesting come midweek, we shall see what the models do but as you know they way underestimated last weeks storm.

[jmanley32]

I know mugs takes 18z with a grain ofsalt but it trended much closer to a phase, but man look at that pressure gradiant! Showing winds sustained 25-35mph gusts up to 65+, with again rediculous snowfall for the north, it came south the precip so IMO if this keeps a trend and by Wednesday or Thursday we should know (hopefully) if we are going to have that storm bomb out right over us or if its just going to be cold, showery and a heck of a lot of wind!

126 hrs: So close but yet so far, but its closer than before, that west shift : )

Wxbell is having issues again, saying files are corrupted so I can't post pics from there so here.

[jmanley32]

And then bam 150hrs with the high winds on the back side I guess that would be, if this thing is as strong as it shows and deepens over us it will be one heck of a storm. Either way the models as I said have been consistent with a Sat-Sun high wind event, def warning criteria IMO.

[jmanley32]

Well damn we can sure tell this system looks to bring its own cold air 20's and 30's mid morning at 138 hrs 12z Sat wow! Moves out quick though so if we are gonna get snow it would have to be in this time frame. Sorry Frank your poster thing is not working, its blank when I click on it. 404 not found (the one furthest to the left of Youtube.

[algae888]

nws disco for next weekend potential.....12Z SOLUTIONS A BIT MORE DIVIDED ON THE
HANDLING OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH FORMING A
LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE QUICK TO
THEN FORM A SECONDARY LOW ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE...WITH THE
ECMWF LAGGING IN THE SECOND LOWS FORMATION. AGAIN...WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL COME
TOGETHER...MAINTAINING JUST CHC WORDING FOR NOW FRI NIGHT-SAT THEN
DRYING THINGS OUT BY SUNDAY. WITH OUTLYING AREAS TO THE NORTH SEEING
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S...HAVE ALSO KEPT THE POSSIBLE
MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIXING FRI NIGHT. A STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION THIS WEEKEND WILL SEND 850MB TEMPS TO ALMOST 10 BELOW ZERO
BY SAT...KEEPING TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF NYC POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 20S.
IF THE GFS SOLUTION COMES TO FRUITION...COULD ALSO SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE COLDER TEMPS

[aiannone]

0z GFS running now

[Frank_Wx]

You guys can talk about the storm in the Halloween Forecast thread, since this is not really long range anymore.

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