April 2014 Observations and Discussion

yes its very windy today but overall a nice day. can someone explain this to me. it seems like the last several rain storms that we've had the models have been very consistent in showing each storm more than 7 days out and they turned out to be very accurate. how come the models have such a hard time when it comes to snow? it's very frustrating watching the models correctly predicting the weather now when they had such a hard time in late february and march.

Windy chilly day. Not so great stuck in low 50s with gusty winds. Thurs was unexpectedly warm, good 10* above forecasted highs. I guess today makes up for it.

algae888 wrote:yes its very windy today but overall a nice day. can someone explain this to me. it seems like the last several rain storms that we've had the models have been very consistent in showing each storm more than 7 days out and they turned out to be very accurate. how come the models have such a hard time when it comes to snow? it's very frustrating watching the models correctly predicting the weather now when they had such a hard time in late february and march.

Something I have been pondering and questioning for years now algae - baffles me but once a pro met stated that the dynamics to a snowstorm are so much more complex then rain. 

I'd say that pro met has it right, Mugsy.The cold air must do something to throw a lot of curveballs at the models.Saw that with the PV affecting our storms from mid Feb through the end of March.

Today will be     

Warming up nicely now in the HV, bright sunshine.7 AM was friggin' cold and windy, puddles all frozen.

At 60* here....great day!

Dunnzoo wrote:At 60* here....great day!

Ditto Janet best day of the year so far!! Fixed my kids zip line and got lots of spring clean up yard work one - 8 barrels of junk from this winter and I have another 3-4 more but no more barrels!! Put down the fertilizer and seed so bring on the rain!! Quack!Quack!

Rain moves in around 1-2pm tomorrow and will continue into early Tuesday morning. Around 1.00 inch possible, probably falling less than that. Tuesday will feature morning clouds with afternoon sunshine, temps in the 50's. Wednesday looks on the cool side with temps probably not getting out of the 40's, but plenty of sun. Thursday into the weekend looks good besides some clouds and light rain showers Friday. Temps ranging from mid 50's to possibly even our first 70-degree reading of the season, most likely Sunday in my opinion.

Rain doesnt look as impressive as it did before, now leaning on leas than an inch which is good for flooding concerns.

Is there a way to see cloud cover on the gfs model?

44° and just started raining .

WOLVES1 wrote:Is there a way to see cloud cover on the gfs model?

not that I have seen on models, some radars will give you cloud cover, also some futurecasts may have it....what were you looking for exactly?

I'm reading 54F but it feels like 34F with that wicked SE wind off the 39 degree Atlantic waters. Yesterday was stellar!

This doesn't look very impressive.

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USVA0731&animate=true

Full

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?region=default&animate=true

Maybe we'll get lucky and miss most of it.

Dunnzoo wrote:

WOLVES1 wrote:Is there a way to see cloud cover on the gfs model?

not that I have seen on models, some radars will give you cloud cover, also some futurecasts may have it....what were you looking for exactly?

I have solar panels on my house and just wanted to know if the models showed future cloud cover.

Ahhhh......

Yuck! just Yuck! Just came in from a class, and it is misting heavily and windy...not showing up on radar, just miserable....

Looks like after showers this morning more like spring rest of the week.

models did another impressive job with this rainstorm. they picked up this storm 10+ days out and were very consistent in giving us an inch of rain. well as of 6am nyc .90 lga.99 islip .79 and white plains .73. thats 4 rainstorms in a row that models did a bang up job with. makes me sick to my stomach.

algae888 wrote:models did another impressive job with this rainstorm. they picked up this storm 10+ days out and were very consistent in giving us an inch of rain. well as of 6am nyc .90 lga.99 islip .79 and white plains .73. thats 4  rainstorms in a row that models did a bang up job with. makes me sick to my stomach.

I concur my friend - all winter long we could not get even 1/1000000th of agreement on the models even 2 days out  

Some pretty heavy rain overnight. As expected, .50-1.00 inches fell for the most part. There is a good chance sun will come out this afternoon with temps getting into the 60's. The rest of the week into the weekend, besides some Friday showers, looks great with plenty of sun and temps in the 60's.

FINALLY

Well maybe thats a sign to come for our friend the Euro I posted on the long range, Frank did you see that craziness?! What are your thoughts, why in the world would the models show that (its only two runs but usually you see things like that for one run, and the second was 2x as much as the 1st), and actually even the GFS has snow around that time but a bit further north and much less.

Flew in from Florida last night. Left 80 degree weather to fly into Newark with fog, 45 degrees, wind and rain. Also one of the bumpier rides I've had in a long time for most of the flight. Today I'm just happy to be alive.

just got .37" of rain from that event....heavier rain west and south and east AGAIN!

Temps rising even faster than I thought. It was 40s a couple hrs ago, now it's 61 at LGA and Newark. 58 @ CPK. Still mostly cloudy.

64 here already. If we can lose this cloud cover we could hit 70 easily