Re: Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1

by **HectorO** Wed Oct 29, 2014 10:48 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Okay, really he had top throwSandy in his tweet, not necessary! He is trying to hype this so much. His map looks like a possible solution but no it isn't no Sandy so why even mention her name. Up here that name puts a bad feeling in everyone. If he is right and it does what his map shows woah. Not counting on it.

It's bastardi, what did you expect? LOL

by **HectorO** Wed Oct 29, 2014 10:51 pm

Analog96 wrote:Here's the deal... it seems like everything in the last month or so has trended slower this fall.

This is not a good thing or a bad thing; it just is.

Depending on each individual setup, it can be good or bad.

There may be times this winter when we want something to go slower, and it will help us.

There may be times when going slower creates a warmer and wetter solution.

There may be times when going slower pushes a system OTS, like this one looks to be.

But it seems like everything is slower than progged initially.

Interesting.... Not sure I see a problem with how things are trending right now. I don't think things are bad right now for the future winter and winter lovers.

Just keep that in mind and apply the biases as we go forward!

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Oct 29, 2014 10:57 pm

The 00z NAM is looking veryyy interesting. Watch these 00z's kids.

by **jmanley32** Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:02 pm

It is much further west, but thats at 84 hrs, where its really not a good model. BUT it is a model so we cannot discount it. Wait till tomorrow lets see what it does at noon.

by **jmanley32** Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:07 pm

Holy cow, any further west if NAM is right we going to get close to hurricane force gusts. But NAM has bias of being over amped this far out.

Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1 - Page 7 Nam_8410

Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1 - Page 7 Nam_8410

As it comes off though it appears to head east away, unless it starts a hookback.

by **jmanley32** Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:38 pm

Is it just me or does the northern energy appear to be hanging back hr 39? This may be interesting.

by **jmanley32** Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:40 pm

Hour 45 the GFS is not digging nearly as far south, as far as I can see, maybe JB was onto something lets see.

by **jmanley32** Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:42 pm

This run looks completely different, these changes I was saying, it looks like the phase is going to be too late again.

by **jmanley32** Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:43 pm

Oh lordy am I turning into JB he just posted same map I did and said same thing I did oh god, someone save me lol

by **jmanley32** Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:48 pm

My bad it did dig all the way down to NC/VA but it looks like it may be a tic west still.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:51 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:The 00z NAM is looking veryyy interesting. Watch these 00z's kids.

Hello Soul!

And the 00z GFS is out to sea. This is as consistent as Iv'e seen the models with this storm. I'll give it until 12z tomorrow to say its a done deal.

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:58 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:The 00z NAM is looking veryyy interesting. Watch these 00z's kids.

Hello Soul!

And the 00z GFS is out to sea. This is as consistent as Iv'e seen the models with this storm. I'll give it until 12z tomorrow to say its a done deal.

Hi Frank! Hope you had a great summer.

Yeah, I see that (GFS). We'll know for sure by tomorrow's 12z's I guess. Good thing we still have the whoooole winter to go. ;-)

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 30, 2014 12:02 am

Frank I jumped the gun sorry still learning how to read these maps right, but I just looked at precip it came west now covering cape and into CT and eastern LI.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Oct 30, 2014 12:05 am

jmanley32 wrote:Frank I jumped the gun sorry still learning how to read these maps right, but I just looked at precip it came west now covering cape and into CT and eastern LI.

Most of that precip is instability from the lead wave and is also light rain. Yawn

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 30, 2014 12:06 am

Yep your right, yawn.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Oct 30, 2014 12:06 am

Frank_Wx wrote:@mugs and @CP, if you're reading, check your private messages.

Got it Frank, I made the changes.

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Oct 30, 2014 5:21 am

Ok ive givein in on weekend storm but i thought it was going to get pretty cold im seeing 55 on sat for highs andblows 40s thought we were goingb5o see highs 40

by **sroc4** Thu Oct 30, 2014 7:36 am

I still think the immediate coast is going to need to watch closely for enhanced rain and wind

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 30, 2014 8:22 am

I agree sroc could end up being something like last week probably less rain but winds could be stronger. We still have almost 2 days. I don't give up until I see it form and head ots. Although all the models agree but they did tick a bit more west of north.

by **HectorO** Thu Oct 30, 2014 8:31 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Ok ive givein in on weekend storm but i thought it was going to get pretty cold im seeing 55 on sat for highs andblows 40s thought we were goingb5o see highs 40

Depends where you live. I'm in the low 50s for Saturday's and low to mid 30s in mahwah for lows.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Oct 30, 2014 8:49 am

In the beginning of the week I was seeing highs on Saturday and Sunday in the low 40s in my area, now Saturday I'm seeing highs in the low 50s definitely temperatures as far as at least predicted this weekend have gone up.

by **algae888** Thu Oct 30, 2014 9:04 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Ok ive givein in on weekend storm but i thought it was going to get pretty cold im seeing 55 on sat for highs andblows 40s thought we were goingb5o see highs 40

skins the reason for the higher temps is that the polar s/w is diving much further south than originally forecast. this is driving the cold air south first and giving us easterly winds which is bringing in milder air off of the ocean. once the storm passes the cold air will come rushing in but it will have modified by the time it gets here. if the s/w would have dug over PA. and then off the jersey coast the cold air would have come in quicker and with full force which is what models where showing on Monday. sunday now looks to be coldest day and Monday morning coldest lows.

by **algae888** Thu Oct 30, 2014 9:17 am

sroc4 wrote:I still think the immediate coast is going to need to watch closely for enhanced rain and wind

I agree. seems like the the pattern (more precip near the coast and storms more off shore)we have been in for a few years now, doesn't want to break as doc has been stating. I guess that's good news for you ace and skins

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:07 am

algae888 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Ok ive givein in on weekend storm but i thought it was going to get pretty cold im seeing 55 on sat for highs andblows 40s thought we were goingb5o see highs 40

skins the reason for the higher temps is that the polar s/w is diving much further south than originally forecast. this is driving the cold air south first and giving us easterly winds which is bringing in milder air off of the ocean. once the storm passes the cold air will come rushing in but it will have modified by the time it gets here. if the s/w would have dug over PA. and then off the jersey coast the cold air would have come in quicker and with full force which is what models where showing on Monday. sunday now looks to be coldest day and Monday morning coldest lows.

Thankes Algae for expkaing makes sense

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:21 am

Not that anyone really cares at this point but the NAM is running and looks pretty similar so far to all the other models, the fact that the NAM is coming in agreement this far out on it really kinda sets it in stone, except coastal areas may get something, give or take a shoft west 50-100 miles is never out of the question nor is it that uncommon.

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:36 am

Woah a mess on NAM at hr 54, all strung out.

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:53 am

And it finally winds up after the part ahead exits NE, and its OTS too, very close with precip in southern jersey showing a inch or so. Winds sustained 10m winds around 20+ kts coastal and inland about maybe 10-15 miles, wouldn't take much of a jog to up those winds a lot. We could be dealing with quite a windstorm even without the precip. Gebnerally speaking is there a correlation between sustained winds and gusts, for instance if winds are sustained 25-35mph what would the likely highest gusts be? Or is there not a correlation?

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