Re: Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

@mugs and @CP, if you're reading, check your private messages.

Got it Frank, I made the changes.

[skinsfan1177]

Ok ive givein in on weekend storm but i thought it was going to get pretty cold im seeing 55 on sat for highs andblows 40s thought we were goingb5o see highs 40

[sroc4]

I still think the immediate coast is going to need to watch closely for enhanced rain and wind

[jmanley32]

I agree sroc could end up being something like last week probably less rain but winds could be stronger. We still have almost 2 days. I don't give up until I see it form and head ots. Although all the models agree but they did tick a bit more west of north.

[HectorO]

Ok ive givein in on weekend storm but i thought it was going to get pretty cold im seeing 55 on sat for highs andblows 40s thought we were goingb5o see highs 40

Depends where you live. I'm in the low 50s for Saturday's and low to mid 30s in mahwah for lows.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

In the beginning of the week I was seeing highs on Saturday and Sunday in the low 40s in my area, now Saturday I'm seeing highs in the low 50s definitely temperatures as far as at least predicted this weekend have gone up.

[algae888]

Ok ive givein in on weekend storm but i thought it was going to get pretty cold im seeing 55 on sat for highs andblows 40s thought we were goingb5o see highs 40

skins the reason for the higher temps is that the polar s/w is diving much further south than originally forecast. this is driving the cold air south first and giving us easterly winds which is bringing in milder air off of the ocean. once the storm passes the cold air will come rushing in but it will have modified by the time it gets here. if the s/w would have dug over PA. and then off the jersey coast the cold air would have come in quicker and with full force which is what models where showing on Monday. sunday now looks to be coldest day and Monday morning coldest lows.

[algae888]

I still think the immediate coast is going to need to watch closely for enhanced rain and wind

I agree. seems like the the pattern (more precip near the coast and storms more off shore)we have been in for a few years now, doesn't want to break as doc has been stating. I guess that's good news for you ace and skins

[skinsfan1177]

Ok ive givein in on weekend storm but i thought it was going to get pretty cold im seeing 55 on sat for highs andblows 40s thought we were goingb5o see highs 40

skins the reason for the higher temps is that the polar s/w is diving much further south than originally forecast. this is driving the cold air south first and giving us easterly winds which is bringing in milder air off of the ocean. once the storm passes the cold air will come rushing in but it will have modified by the time it gets here. if the s/w would have dug over PA. and then off the jersey coast the cold air would have come in quicker and with full force which is what models where showing on Monday. sunday now looks to be coldest day and Monday morning coldest lows.

Thankes Algae for expkaing makes sense

[jmanley32]

Not that anyone really cares at this point but the NAM is running and looks pretty similar so far to all the other models, the fact that the NAM is coming in agreement this far out on it really kinda sets it in stone, except coastal areas may get something, give or take a shoft west 50-100 miles is never out of the question nor is it that uncommon.

[jmanley32]

Woah a mess on NAM at hr 54, all strung out.

[jmanley32]

And it finally winds up after the part ahead exits NE, and its OTS too, very close with precip in southern jersey showing a inch or so.  Winds sustained 10m winds around 20+ kts coastal and inland about maybe 10-15 miles, wouldn't take much of a jog to up those winds a lot.  We could be dealing with quite a windstorm even without the precip.  Gebnerally speaking is there a correlation between sustained winds and gusts, for instance if winds are sustained 25-35mph what would the likely highest gusts be?  Or is there not a correlation?

[jmanley32]

NWS excerpt:

WINDS WILL END UP BEING THE BIGGER STORY...AND WILL BE AT THEIR
STRONGEST FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME POINT DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

[SoulSingMG]

I'm not near my computer to look closer but I'm hearing chatter about the 12z CMC showing a big time inverted trough?

[Frank_Wx]

I'm not near my computer to look closer but I'm hearing chatter about the 12z CMC showing a big time inverted trough?

Would not say big time, but it does show one which enhances rain over the area for much of the day Saturday.

Right now Saturday looks pretty crappy. Overcast with a cold rain at times.

[sroc4]

I'm not near my computer to look closer but I'm hearing chatter about the 12z CMC showing a big time inverted trough?

All three models have been showing it to varying degrees the last 24 hrs or so.  CMC has it most pronounced focusing the precip once again similar to the last system focuses over central NJ coast and LI.  I think that is going to need to be now casted just like the last storm, where certain areas will see enhanced forcing and precip totals.

[amugs]

I'm not near my computer to look closer but I'm hearing chatter about the 12z CMC showing a big time inverted trough?

YES, 12Z GFS tried too and failed, closed the low off in the Ohio River Valley - DO NOT HAVE COLOR MAPS THOUGH - BLACK AND WHITES - When in God's name are they going to stop this 1970's crap!!

[amugs]

I'm not near my computer to look closer but I'm hearing chatter about the 12z CMC showing a big time inverted trough?

All three models have been showing it to varying degrees the last 24 hrs or so.  CMC has it most pronounced focusing the precip once again similar to the last system focuses over central NJ coast and LI.  I think that is going to need to be now casted just like the last storm, where certain areas will see enhanced forcing and precip totals.

Skins, Ace and Isotherm (Tom) get nailed once again - you watch - their storm just like the Nor'easter we just had - DOC, CP and SNOW are going to commit Harry Caray if this patterns keeps up and I will be dethroned by said members!!

[jmanley32]

Hey mugs, any maps you would like me to post with pretty colors from wxbell?  Its so very close, IMO the models are at a point where I agree it may well be a nowcast.  It does not appear that the rain coincides with the wind, which is cool because I can go out and observe the wind (waiting on getting a handheld anemometer (any recommended brands?)  They I can report accurate winds.  Winds IMO could easily gust to 50 maybe more on Sat-Sun, and depending on where rain sets up could coincide but at this time looks to not be the case.  Maybe the models will not get this until its on top of us or closer that is.  I would be shocked if it was really close and it would be quite a storm if it did.

[jmanley32]

Also another thought if the rain saturates enough (although for now does not look like a lot, could weaken trees a bit to those winds.  We will see.  If we get anything at all other than sunshine at this point I will be happy, I am over the excitement we had Monday.  Maybe we get a snowstorm later in November?

What would a inverted trough do for us, and it appears the system comes in two LP now rather than one until it phases passing the bench mark. Is it possible the models are still having trouble with this, even though they have similar solution??

BTW also read VA HWO winds 35-45kts with higher gust dang! Doesn't have to come much closer to bring us some crazy winds.

[jmanley32]

mugs check your PM, I sent you something.

And mugs the last one I got pummeled pretty good too, not like LI but it was still pretty wild.

[jmanley32]

FWIW, the Chinese model (CMA) had not shown a storm until now and its within the benchmark! If this verifies oh boy and actually the CMA had a poretty good track record with the tropics.

[jmanley32]

Second larger part appears closer in by a bit (40+ kt 900mb winds sustained dang!), CMA does not have preip maps or a way to zoom in but I got a closer look this way.



And JB is still not giving up he said wait until tomorrows models, as the pattern is changed a little bit?  I dunno.

[sroc4]

Also another thought if the rain saturates enough (although for now does not look like a lot, could weaken trees a bit to those winds.  We will see.  If we get anything at all other than sunshine at this point I will be happy, I am over the excitement we had Monday.  Maybe we get a snowstorm later in November?

What would a inverted trough do for us, and it appears the system comes in two LP now rather than one until it phases passing the bench mark.  Is it possible the models are still having trouble with this, even though they have similar solution??

BTW also read VA HWO winds 35-45kts with higher gust dang!  Doesn't have to come much closer to bring us some crazy winds.

Jman here is what an intverted trough is:
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/126/

As far as the two lows here is why.  If I was not at work I would show the image of the satellite with the pieces circled.  Here is the link to the satellite loop:
http://mapmaker.aos.wisc.edu/scr3/sat/g8/g8wvflash.html
The southern energy that is the remnants of Ana from the Pac is diving SE ward riding the pacific jet.  Look at the area of slight spin centered over N Missouri/Iowa...thats it.  The northern energy is lagging behind to the north.  Look at the area NW of the GL or SW of the Hudson Bay.  Its diving towards the conus via the polar jet.  Pac jet energy will eventually catch up to a stalled frontal boundary that is associated with the STJ just off the east coast.  This can easily be seen by the line of clouds streaming from SW to NE just off the coast.  If you look at it in the loop you can easily see how it extends all the way over the Fla panhandle and into the GOM.  When the southern energy meets up with that front off the coast a surface LP will try to form along the front and head N and east along it which is what I believe we are seeing on the models.  The northern energy is such a potent piece of energy because the PNA ridge is so amped that it closes itself off as it rounds the base of the trough somewhere around Va give or take a state. This spawns the second LP.  The blocking we have slows down the first low and allows the second to catch up and all three jets phase but to far to our N and east.  The surface LP looks to get down into the 970's!! up into Nova Scotia area. The reason its just a tad to far to the east is that IMO the blocking is not quite strong enough to fend off the PNA ridge from progressing eastward throughout this process. This in turn cause our trough axis to be just too far east when it goes neg and phases the three jets.

[sroc4]

Like JB with a system this potent I would def keep an eye on the current observations. Tonight I am really going to look at the satellite loops and see if there is any funny business going on

[jmanley32]

Yeah I think JB can be a bit wishcast at times but this makes sense because so many things are at play and I see the possibility of some type of change, I find it highly doubtful that everything goes exactly as the models that could make all the difference. Note the Euro brings the first close closer and really gets cape RL and eastern CT/LI.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Im not too excited about this, the low seems to look good around Hatteras but because its closed the vort just kicks to the east before eventually getting picked up in the flow and bombs to give parts of Atlantic Canada some snow. Not too atypical for this time of year.

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