Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1
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Angela0621
HectorO
amugs
Sunflowers138
NjWeatherGuy
Analog96
sroc4
skinsfan1177
colosa4
jmanley32
Artechmetals
2004blackwrx
rb924119
aiannone
algae888
Frank_Wx
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Re: Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1
I Will It's Gonna Be Nuts I'm mobile. Be home soon.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1
it looks like conn. would see some snow from this run
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1
Wait what just happened with the 18z runs. I've been busy all day and now I hear it shifted way west and I get a snowstorm here in NERN Vt?
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1
Yes mets posting images now, WAY west like due north into RI cape area. A foot of snow and over 2 feet in maine! If this is right talk about models waiting till the last minute. Now thats its started a west trend it could come even more west.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1
Closer up view, this is crazy! I said Franks scroll was a KOD, as soon he takes it down look what happens!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1
Winds are going to really howl, for a time they hit 30+ sustained for our area Al!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1
50-100 miles west al and we get the rain and regardless of snow man those winds are going to be gusting to 60mph.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1
Look at how far west it came, and then heads more due north than before, 30+ inches in Maine seems a bit extreme, if this shows for 00z or even further west then I was right lol
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Join date : 2013-12-12
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Location : Yonkers, NY
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1
jmanley32 wrote:50-100 miles west al and we get the rain and regardless of snow man those winds are going to be gusting to 60mph.
jman I do not think we need it to go west. we need the pieces to come together sooner and draw in the cold air while precip is still falling. that means the 2 lows phase some where south of us. I do not think it will happen but still a small possibility. hey why don't we go visit mets in Vermont this weekend and crash his dorm.lol
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1
LOL, wish I could, lets see if 00z shows similar, its one run as we know halloween trick! ok, well whatever it wants to do snow is creeping this way. It made a huge change from all the other models except its in line with the bad JMA.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1
Your right Al if it goes anymore west then it will be on top of use and we will get the dry slot. So what is it that you think happened in this run?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1
I see, they were able to phase the first storm in front must have slowed on this run, blocking?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1
here's the thing jman there is so much energy at 500mb with very cold air and a warm ocean so maybe models are having a hard time figuring out what happens at the surface and where it happens. all the ingredients are there for a big storm. so yes lets see what happens tonight.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1
I sure as heck will be up you? I hope it isn't a total hiccup, kocking on wood ever so hard. JB eluded to the sea temps, IMO a lot of the storms this year have had last minute trends to give us a storm with little warning. Even if its just rain (right now they have about .5-.75 for us, but the winds will be the big problem, especially if this cranks even more.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1
jmanley32 wrote:I see, they were able to phase the first storm in front must have slowed on this run, blocking?
yes def slowed down blocking looked stronger. plus the low closed off over the south east and opens up before it hits our area and then closes back off once it passes us. would have liked to have another model show something similar.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1
Well i don't trut the NAM so 18z this is all we have to go by. wait did you check NAVGEM?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1
NAVGEM is further west too, it elongaates nd then gets bck together if it doesnt split then we are in for it wether it be rain or snow (snow looks like a outlier now, but hey its becoming the trend past 4 years
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1
look at how much closer they are...
18z hr 54
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php
12z hr 60
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php
18z hr 54
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php
12z hr 60
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1
Links didnt work, but I will compare on wxbell.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1
Wow thats a big difference, do you have the same bias against the 18z as mugs? Is there any validity to that that you see, I mean we are less than 48 hrs out to this thing getting going and the GFS changed so drastically, sroc, you said you were gonna look to see if any funny stuff was going on, well what is your take on this?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1
Jeeze it digs even further south, into SC on that run, I wonder how that factors in, doesn't make much sense other than if the first LP slowed a lot. I do remember people on here and JB talking about the blocking possibly being undermodeled.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1
jman its only one model and one run. we have been fooled by the gfs before. what I couldn't understand from previous runs was the absence of precip on the western side of the 2 lows. you would think that an intense storm would throw back precip at least to the coast. the storm wasn't that far east of the bm. maybe the models are (at least this model) is starting to get a better hanlde on it. we'll see tonight
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1
Yep still interesting to see such a change after so many consistent runs that I even figured it was not going to waver (however I wishcast it lol)
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1
Not just one model 18z NAVGEM is similar but weaker (the weaker part is not surprising the NAVGEM has weaker a lot. Same thing happens here from hr 54 to hr 66 the LP in front doesn't really budge from the cape area. The blocking must be stronger.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1
OMG, time to get the winter coats our for at least a little while, sheesh, yes just one run but the cold has been something we have been talking about all a long.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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