11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

[Frank_Wx]

I figured it will be easier to put my thoughts in a blog. I did some analysis. Here is my final call, but please read what I have to say in my blog especially below the snow map.

BLOG:

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2014/11/pre-thanksgiving-noreaster-to-bring.html

FINAL SNOW MAP:



I have timing and all that good stuff in the blog. Use this thread as observation as well!

[Frank_Wx]

12z EURO actually looks colder for the coast.

[amugs]

H7 MUCH COLDER FOLKS - WOWWWEEEE!!!

[sroc4]

I figured it will be easier to put my thoughts in a blog. I did some analysis. Here is my final call, but please read what I have to say in my blog especially below the snow map.

BLOG:

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2014/11/pre-thanksgiving-noreaster-to-bring.html

FINAL SNOW MAP:



I have timing and all that good stuff in the blog. Use this thread as observation as well!

Hey Frank I find it interesting that you have 6-10 and 8-12 all the way down to the SW CT coast yet 5-15 miles south on the north shore of central-west LI not much more that 3". That's one heck of a cutoff.

[Frank_Wx]

Doc, I was just telling someone yesterday how I can never get CT right. Some tell me it's different from LI, some say otherwise. Who knows. Lol.

[rb924119]

HOUSTON, WE HAVE LIFT OFF!!!! 1012mb closed circulation in the Gulf.

[Frank_Wx]

Yea rb  is looks pretty potent

[skinsfan1177]

I guess its not our storm Ace maybe next time once winter gets going.

[nutleyblizzard]

I think the reason the 12z Euro came in colder, was it had more interaction with the northern stream.

[Guest]

Hey Frank,

Love the map and I'll take any snow in Nov. but just my 2 cents here...

in a matter of 10 miles (all around where Fairfield County, the 5 Boroughs, Southern Westchester and Nassau county come together) you have 4 different amounts converging. I think a more southwest to northeast gradient in amounts would make more sense for L.I. and Ct. based on what you have going on in central N.J. and eastern PA.

Thanks for all you do!!

[rb924119]

Nice map, too, Frank, I agree with it 100% (not because I live there, either :p). I've been looking at the jet and where it's modeled to be, and I would not be surprised to see intense banding set up further west than where it is being modeled, nor would I be surprised to see H7 close off earlier than expected with the significant amount of synoptic ascent from the jet entrance region.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Good god this is a hard forecast, I gave up, bust potential too high around 95 dont feel confident enough on a call.

[Math23x7]

Well amgs, on the 12Z EURO for hr 30 (1 PM Wednesday) at JFK airport (the NWS station closest to me) it is -0 Celsius at 700 mb, -2 Celcius at 850 mb, and -0 Celsius at 925 mb. At the surface, however it's at 38 degrees Fahrenheit...

[docstox12]

Winter storm warning official now for me for 7-13 inches in HV NY.Looks like this is getting more solid as we get closer.

[nutleyblizzard]

Good god this is a hard forecast, I gave up, bust potential too high around 95 dont feel confident enough on a call.

I hear ya! From my location, I'm in the 3-6 inch zone. A good safe bet. However, I believe in srocs snow map with it being a high bust potential standpoint. So many factors still unknown with a storm less than 24 hours away. My main concern is often with these dynamic events, is sometimes you will see a heavy snow band develop just to the west of the rain snow line. Another thing to look out for in future model runs is a stronger system which would pull in colder air sooner increasing snowfall rates. Just take a look at our developing storm in the gulf, It's really jacked. If either of those factors take place, I can easily see my totals double. I'm not proclaiming this will happen, just something to keep in mind. We have the 18z and 00z runs to go through- let's hope they keep trending colder and stronger. After that it will be nowcasting time, and by this time tomorrow we will be watching the radars with bated breath.

[Dunnzoo]

My forecast for NE Bergen County: Wednesday: Rain before 10am, then snow. Temperature falling to around 34 by 3pm. Wind chill values between 25 and 35. North wind 5 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Wednesday Night: Snow likely, mainly before 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Northwest wind 5 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

So how can they not have me in a warning yet?

[NjWeatherGuy]

12z NAM shows about 1.4" QPF IMBY with only the first frame of like .2" is rain the rest appears to be snow, difficult forecast

[Quietace]

Good god this is a hard forecast, I gave up, bust potential too high around 95 dont feel confident enough on a call.

Agree 100%. Also Gave up.

[SoulSingMG]

Good god this is a hard forecast, I gave up, bust potential too high around 95 dont feel confident enough on a call.

Agree 100%. Also Gave up.

I can't believe this!! Lol, I really on you guys for the TRUTH!

[amugs]

My forecast for NE Bergen County: Wednesday: Rain before 10am, then snow. Temperature falling to around 34 by 3pm. Wind chill values between 25 and 35. North wind 5 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Wednesday Night: Snow likely, mainly before 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Northwest wind 5 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

So how can they not have me in a warning yet?

Zoo??

Severe Weather Alerts - Hillsdale, NJ
Winter Storm Warning
Winter Storm Warning in effect from Wednesday, 7:00 AM EST until Thursday, 7:00 AM EST. Source: U.S. National Weather Service
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY.

* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES.

* TIMING...A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY NOONTIME WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...THE SNOWFALL WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...MAKING DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

[Dunnzoo]

Where did you get that mugs? I'm on their site and no mention of it for you or me....

[NjWeatherGuy]

I have a watch for 2-4 issued at 945am? Come on Mt. Holly, this is too low and their map is terrible imo.

[amugs]

Zoo - off the accuweather site which comes from NWS - that is strange

[sroc4]

Good god this is a hard forecast, I gave up, bust potential too high around 95 dont feel confident enough on a call.

Agree 100%. Also Gave up.

I can't believe this!! Lol, I really on you guys for the TRUTH!

Im with you Soul. Remember we are all amateurs on this site. Take a guess and throw in a CYA like I did.

[jmanley32]

I found some interesting beta maps on nws that shows max and minimum snow maps. Max is crazy with 15 inches in large area. Minimum is depressing but their normal map is most likely I will post later am mobile now.

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