Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

[sroc4]

Good god this is a hard forecast, I gave up, bust potential too high around 95 dont feel confident enough on a call.

Agree 100%. Also Gave up.

I can't believe this!! Lol, I really on you guys for the TRUTH!

Im with you Soul. Remember we are all amateurs on this site. Take a guess and throw in a CYA like I did.

[jmanley32]

I found some interesting beta maps on nws that shows max and minimum snow maps. Max is crazy with 15 inches in large area. Minimum is depressing but their normal map is most likely I will post later am mobile now.

[amugs]

SREF's

[Quietace]

Good god this is a hard forecast, I gave up, bust potential too high around 95 dont feel confident enough on a call.

Agree 100%. Also Gave up.

I can't believe this!! Lol, I really on you guys for the TRUTH!

So many small changes with temps and lifting, precip intensity,deviation in track, and the 700mb warm nose with this system can change a forecast. I dont have confidence in a forecast as i can see many outcomes in my head with this system still, even nowcasting.

[amugs]

NICE!!!!

[amugs]

[docstox12]

A typical NYC area borderline snowstorm of which I've seen many turn out boom or bust.Sometimes you don't know for sure even a few hours before or even during a storm.I've seen some weird things happen.The Feb 1978 snowstorm was supposed to produce 18 to 20 inches that day but a sudden "transferrance" of energy left us in Bergen County with only 10 or 12 with a dead lull for hours.The Jan 1978 snowstorms was supposed to mix with and change to rain with only 2 to 4 inches but the R/S line never got further north than newark and where I was was blasted with nearly 20 inches and 8 foot drifts.My 1977 Ford Granada was buried up to the roof and took 2 days for me to dig out.

[SoulSingMG]

Good god this is a hard forecast, I gave up, bust potential too high around 95 dont feel confident enough on a call.

Agree 100%. Also Gave up.

I can't believe this!! Lol, I really on you guys for the TRUTH!

So many small changes with temps and lifting, precip intensity,deviation in track, and the 700mb warm nose with this system can change a forecast. I dont have confidence in a forecast as i can see many outcomes in my head with this system still, even nowcasting.

I totally get it. This is really tough. One of the toughest since I came to NYC 6 years ago, and namely because of the month we are in. 3 weeks from now it would be a different story just based on the seasonal temps & airmass to work with.

[Dunnzoo]

I won't make a map, but I see at least 2" of snow for everyone, and 4"+ for west and north of the city! haha!

[Dunnzoo]

Zoo - off the accuweather site which comes from NWS - that is strange

You mean INaccuweather? lol It is strange, so inconsistent, who's running this show anyways?

[aiannone]

Cutoff is just east of me but still gives me 4-6. I'll take it lol!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I would like to see the temps start to steadily drop about now. That would be a good start.

Lots of nice colors on those maps but like Doc I've seen these things turn many times over the years for better or worse in the last 24 hours. I'm now convinced enough that anything less than 6 inches in my area I will view as a major letdown.

Imagine letting snow affect your moods like that. There must be a name for what we all have or some kind of mutant gene that makes us all like this. With that said if there was ever a cure I'd want no part of the cure.

[docstox12]

Terminally acute snowcoholism.Had it since age 10 and here I sit on this board with all the youngster snow addicts,LOL.

No cure possible nor needed,LOL!

[skinsfan1177]

So as we wait how does the system look someone earlier mentioned that it looked pretty amped.

[Math23x7]

On weatherbell for the 18Z Hi-Res NAM, it says "Entire Grid Undefined" ugh.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I'm in the Bronx today Doc. You have a current temperature by us?

[docstox12]

50.3 cp

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Geez. That's a long way to go. Hope temps start dropping like a rock after sunset.

[RJB8525]

looks like that gives me around 4-5" i'll take it but it will be interesting to see when the snow actually starts to stick

[docstox12]

Dunno.Lot's of cloud cover, high to middle types.Don't see much radiational cooling but they say a cold front passed earlier.Will be monitoring that til late tonight.

[RJB8525]

Dunno.Lot's of cloud cover, high to middle types.Don't see much radiational cooling but they say a cold front passed earlier.Will be monitoring that til late tonight.

upton still has a generic 4-8" from this morning no change but they have made changes today flip flopping on this, at one point they had 4-6 they now pulled back and put 2-4" i think that's a safe bet at this point they should leave it as is

[jmanley32]

NWS lowered ne again to 4-6 ugg nail biter, those SREF are crazy 1.25qpf thats a foot!  And about 8-9 for me on the other one, at this point I have no idea what the expect.

[jmanley32]

RJ the 6-8 was pulled back too, it was down into southern WC.  It will waffle into tomorrow I can bet on that.

[jmanley32]

Wonder when and if Warnings will be brough south, probably last minute as long as at least 6 is in forecast, that is the threshold for warning right?  Also with possible winds is there the chance for blizzard conditions or possible watches etc, or will they be below criteria, I know blizzard has nothing to do with totals.

[RJB8525]

as i upload this upton jumped the gun on me, downgraded to advisory

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM
EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...NORTHERN NASSAU COUNTY...SOUTHERN
 WESTCHESTER COUNTY...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND NORTHERN NEW
 LONDON...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

* TIMING...A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD
 CHANGE TO PRIMARILY SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE
 PERIODS OF RAIN MIXING IN EVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

* IMPACTS...THE SNOWFALL WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
 TRAVEL...MAKING DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES.

[jmanley32]

Aww man watch was dropped for coastal areas to WWA, dang!  Once they do that theres a little liklihood it will go back to a warning, or could it still?

[Frank_Wx]

This may be the first time my snow map (1-3 or 2-4) is lower than Upton (4-6)  for the City.

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