Re: Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:59 pm

yeah rb, go be a while for ensembles

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 06, 2014 2:01 pm

And when might we know that Frank, after it starts? LOL

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 06, 2014 2:01 pm

Lmao Frank, just to frustrate you and the rest of us, right? You have to admit, that run was incredible to watch.....

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 06, 2014 2:03 pm

This time tomorrow we should know just about what's going to happen. The energies are coming onshore now, so by tonight's runs, and certainly tomorrow we should be "locked in" (hopefully) lol If not, then I'm gonna need a lottttt of coffee

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 06, 2014 2:08 pm

It was incredible. Just as I was writing off scenario #1 too. Euro really digs the northern energy and forces a phase with the southern stream to occur south of our area. You end up having a storm occlude off our coast.

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 06, 2014 2:13 pm

What bothers me about that run in particular, is the fact that it doesn't do so all the way through, only from H7 and points below, which to get feet of snow seems almost counter intuitive. You get the best deformation when H5 and H7 close off just slightly out of line with each other, but here I would tend to think that axis gets somewhat sheared out. Maybe it's trying to hint at bandlets, instead of a complete band structure? Idk. Just seems odd to see totals that high given the mid-level evolution.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Dec 06, 2014 2:16 pm

9z SREF

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 9 F8410

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 06, 2014 2:18 pm

Dear lord NJ many of those look like major hurricanes, #13 like last night looks most extreme in terms of intrnsity precip and high winds.

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 06, 2014 2:19 pm

Let me clarify- it doesn't to our south. Once over the region it does close off at H5, but not before. Maybe it's due the rapid intensification of the H7 level that creates enough of it's own forcing, even while sitting directly under the H5 low. Idk.

by **hyde345** Sat Dec 06, 2014 2:20 pm

Watch Bernie Rayno's latest video about this storm. Interesting.

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 06, 2014 2:20 pm

Frank do you see a bombogensisi still possible? Or is the chance for any frozen precip gone pretty much and we now just have to worry about huge amounts of rain and probably at least advisory lvel winds (although with some of those sref and the Euro could get to warning level for about a 12 hr period as the storm first moves in.

by **Math23x7** Sat Dec 06, 2014 2:20 pm

If the 12/6 12Z EURO OP does verify, would this be a repeat of the December 1992 nor'easter for NYC, NJ, and LI? I was only 2 years old then so I was too young to remember. But what about the others on this board?

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 06, 2014 2:22 pm

Hyde, do you have the link for it? And Match, idk, was only 1 ahaha could probably look at archived data though

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 06, 2014 2:24 pm

math is this it, that storm had 80mph winds at cape may yikes

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/December_1992_nor%27easter

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 06, 2014 2:28 pm

wow exact same dates too, hmmm you know what they say about history repeating itself.

by **hyde345** Sat Dec 06, 2014 2:29 pm

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/video-storm-to-blast-northeast-tuesday-into-wednesday/3901417444001

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 06, 2014 2:30 pm

I was 11 but i do not recall this one I do remember the one following year, that was nuts.

by **algae888** Sat Dec 06, 2014 2:37 pm

Math23x7 wrote:If the 12/6 12Z EURO OP does verify, would this be a repeat of the December 1992 nor'easter for NYC, NJ, and LI? I was only 2 years old then so I was too young to remember. But what about the others on this board?

math I remember it well I was in a little town in the Catskills that summer and winter Kerhonkson. could have spelled that wrong but it snowed for two days it was so heavy that after we got the first foot it never accumulated more than that because it kept getting compacted. very intense don't remember the winds being a factor

by **amugs** Sat Dec 06, 2014 2:55 pm

Math23x7 wrote: If the 12/6 12Z EURO OP does verify, would this be a repeat of the December 1992 nor'easter for NYC, NJ, and LI? I was only 2 years old then so I was too young to remember. But what about the others on this board?

Mike 2 years old JEEZ!!

I remember that beast very well hit on a Friday and it was BAD on many fronts!!

We had howling winds, rain, tidal flooding - 4-5' storm surge if I recall on the north jersey shore up to Seacaucus.

Good analog here

Viva el Euro!!! cheers

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 06, 2014 2:55 pm

Holy crap the EURO Ensembles are running......

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 06, 2014 2:56 pm

Oh boy.....through 72, very similar to Op, at least with MSLP/precip

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 06, 2014 3:01 pm

Ensembles agree pretty much across board so car coastal hugger, I think Euro wins out. Might be stronger though if it can bomb out just a bit earlier.

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 06, 2014 3:03 pm

Thats pretty tight, but all of them are above 990mb from what it looks like, I think it will be deeper than that.

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 9 Low_lo11

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 9 Low_lo11

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 06, 2014 3:06 pm

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 06, 2014 3:07 pm

Wow.

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 06, 2014 3:07 pm

Yeah that's an interesting pattern though, if you look, they are almost split 50/50 between being right on the coast, and slightly east of the mean. Depends on exactly how strong the mid-level cyclone gets that will determine the actual location

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 06, 2014 3:09 pm

I certainly did not expect this outcome

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