Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th

Yeah that's an interesting pattern though, if you look, they are almost split 50/50 between being right on the coast, and slightly east of the mean. Depends on exactly how strong the mid-level cyclone gets that will determine the actual location

I certainly did not expect this outcome

a few show sub 980, I should posted the zoomed low locations, but only a few. ensemble stamp 27 would be a serious storm 977mb and just off coast.

The 1992 december 10th storm had winds gusting a JFK to 77mph fewf thats per wikipedia so may not be 100% accurate.

Coastal flooding and beach erosion may end up being a problem.

Frank do you see winds a concern too? Euro showed a 12 hr period at the beginning of gusts to or over 50mph, and so have past runs of cmc and gfs. obviously the more it can bomb the more we have to be concerned with winds, flooding def looks to be a issue, and thats just no fun

here is zoomed in you can see some are sub 990 and a very few sub 985mb.

This is how I feel thinking about this storm

LMFAOOOOO What are your thoughts, Frank? I'm beginning to think that the EURO may yet again be on to something. I don't think the magnitude will be quite as intense as it suggests, but now that it has support from its own ensemble really raises the red flag for me, and that the extreme solution may not be so far fetched, ESPECIALLY if the other models come on board.

lol superman drinking? lol

rb924119 wrote:LMFAOOOOO What are your thoughts, Frank? I'm beginning to think that the EURO may yet again be on to something. I don't think the magnitude will be quite as intense as it suggests, but now that it has support from its own ensemble really raises the red flag for me, and that the extreme solution may not be so far fetched, ESPECIALLY if the other models come on board.

I can see a reason why the GFS is right and why the EURO is right. The GFS I can see being right is because most of the upper air energy associated with this storm is coming from the northern stream. The GFS has a pretty good track record of handling northern stream driven storms. There is also no blocking, but there is an HP which the EURO clearly likes and sees. So I can see how a storm ends up a little closer to the coast based on that anomaly. I honestly think this storm is going to track on the BM again. The last coastal storm tracked just inside the BM. So anywhere from just inside to right on the BM sounds about right to me.

But track is not the only thing we have to figure out. How strong will this storm be is also key. It will determine wind speeds and how much cold air gets drawn into the storm. I do not think the coast has a chance with this storm, but it's important for areas just north and west.

That's what I was thinking, too. What about intensity? Clearly there's an issue in how much interaction occurs, but based on what I've seen (at least with respect to the EURO) a major storm does not look like it's all that unlikely now....

Does anyone see any similarities between this and the February 25-26 2010 storm?
I don't study these things close enough, but the similarities I see on the surface are a long duration storm which may travel in side the BM, loop slowly and retrograde back toward us and die out eventually near us as it barely moves.

Of course it's a different time of season and all that, but that storm was forecast 3-4 days out to pound central NY and central Pennsylvania as well as the upper half of New England with 20-40 inches of snow. Of course the eventual outcome was NYC and suburbs just to the west and north of NYC received 20-40 inches of snow. I'm not saying we get that or anything close or even any snow, please God let it happen again, but does anyone know if the setup was similar going in.

Frank_Wx wrote:This is how I feel thinking about this storm

The guy with the beard Frank??

sroc4 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:This is how I feel thinking about this storm

The guy with the beard Frank??

Cp, I actually did a case study on that storm for school. If you want to read, I can post it, but to answer your question; yes and no. Yes in the fact that it gets cut off and sits and spins, but no in the fact that initial stages are very much different. That low (Feb) initiated from a pretty potent southern vort max that interacted with a developing low on a stalled frontal boundary in Florida. Here, there is a stalled boundary, but it is much further north and the southern stream is much weaker. Also, the jet orientation is different; that one was completely zonal, and so the surface low had to actually cross the jet axis before it could strengthen, which only occurred as the northern stream began to really dig. This one is already oriented such that the jet is more N/S and the low is in a favorable location for development

sroc where you been, missed your expert explanations past few days

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Does anyone see any similarities between this and the February 25-26 2010 storm?
I don't study these things close enough, but the similarities I see on the surface are a long duration storm which may travel in side the BM, loop slowly and retrograde back toward us and die out eventually near us as it barely moves.

Of course it's a different time of season and all that, but that storm was forecast 3-4 days out to pound central NY and central Pennsylvania as well as the upper half of New England with 20-40 inches of snow. Of course the eventual outcome was NYC and suburbs just to the west and north of NYC received 20-40 inches of snow. I'm not saying we get that or anything close or even any snow, please God let it happen again, but does anyone know if the setup was similar going in.

Well, lets take a look, shall we?

Here is the current set-up based on the EURO:



We have a large High Pressure to our north with ridging over the center of the country. The EPO is positive (low heights over northeast Pacific) and the NAO region is experiencing low heights. You can clearly see the amplified trough over the northeast.

February 25-26, 2010:



Besides some positive heights in the NAO region, it DOES look pretty similar! Mainly in the Pacific. The Arctic and Atlantic look pretty different, but the overall theme is blocking to the north (which we have) and a potent trough in the northeast.

So now we have the blocking, I thought you said we lacked that?

jmanley32 wrote:So now we have the blocking, I thought you said we lacked that?

Not latitudinal blocking...I meant the HP as our form of a "block"

Right i figured was just checking, they call that a banan high i think, cause it bends lie form of a banana. So is it possible the areas just n/w of city like my area see any snow or is that pretty much shut and closed?

Frank and RB

Thanks for the quick and detailed responses.

Rb, I would love to see your write up on that storm. Other than the January 1996 storm where we received 33 inches, that was my second favorite of all time.

We received 35 inches of snow here in eastern Orange County from that storm and the ratios weren't great like in 96, plus up until the day before I thought we'd be lucky to get 4-8 out of it, with the rain/snow line so close.

Ok, give me a sec to try and figure out how to get it on here lmao

Here it is, hopefully you have dropbox because otherwise I don't know how to get it on here in a file.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/s8i8hk0bkakenab/Synoptic%20Paper.docx?dl=0

If that doesn't work, you can try this link, but please only view the file that says SynopticPaper, as the other file is information that I have to use in reports.

https://www.dropbox.com/home?select=Synoptic+Paper.docx

Anybody else, please feel free to read if you're interested, and if you have any questions on it please ask. I have to go for a while, but I will be back on later tonight. Cheers!!

Just as a follow-up, the images I reference all follow the body of the paper. Enjoy!!

National Weather Service doesn't even mention snow in its disco for the entire area with this system Mount Holly mentions it for Northeast Pennsylvania time to move on.