Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th

NWs first snow map, everything to the north as of now.

jmanley32 wrote:NWs first snow map, everything to the north as of now.

Interesting map for Orange County, 1-2 inches on the southern border and 8-10 inches in the extreme northwest portion. I doubt that will verify one way or the other, but I guess it's as good a first guess as any here. It also doesn't include anything for possible Thursday retrograde.

There's still so much to iron out this week.

Still trying to figure out what's going to happen up here in Lyndonville, VT. Seems as if we will have mixing issues, but we are trying to figure out to which extent that will occur and how that will affect accumulations.

NWS Albany Map

That is a very tronge looking map with all the random pixels. But damn. lucky people.

12z EURO Op holds course through 72. Jman, could you post the snowfall map from WxBell for the total accumulations? Thanks!!

Euro is very warm

Alex the map you posted from NWS has 18-24 inches in the Catskills in NY. The ski areas will love it, if it verifies.

euro moves low to lake Ontario. lol

This run came in 4mb stronger than 00z, and maybe slightly west. I think we are going to continue to see this wobbling in the track until it happens.

No snow for Sussex county

Waiting to see all precip leave before snow map, stuck at 108 (snow map not showing) still light precip on that map.

Snow map, and yes accumulations go on for that friggin long on this euro run!

Actually just looked again, it appears around Friday or Sat, another low develops which brings thr small amount of snow to the southern areas. So take it back NW just a bit for this storm.

Jesus....that was even warmer and those amounts are STILL about where they were. I think it's going to tick a tad east from where the op brings it, which would be slightly colder. We'll see what the ensembles do. Thanks Jman!!!!! I know the UKMET came a bit further east and colder, so we'll see. It's still right at the edge of its window.

I just got around to looking at 00z Euro ensembles, and noted all the snow stamps have shifted south and east a bit. The low locations and intensity still vary a lot some sub 990 and a few sub 980. Can't ait to see 12z ensembles. Thinking at least some of us see decent snow at some point in this crazy long duration storm.

rb, you think I could possibly squeeze a 3-6 inche storm outta this if it goes east and a bit colder? Did you see ensembles from last night, intriguing to say the least. This storm is exciting in just the fact that I do not think I have seen omething so large, long duration and dynamical in a long time. The forecast seems almost impossible. We may just have to nowcast this thing. and BTW the area still has winds gusting 40-60mph at the onset of storm with heaviest precip, yes may be overdone but needs to be watched, Euro has been consistent on that.

21 of the 50 ensembles snow stamps bring snow near or way south of the coast, so I do not think we are totally out of chance for snow. This may take until tomorrow night to really know when the storm starts to develop and we ee how far south it starts. I hope it bombs out and just around benchmark, we would probably be golden then! Feverishly working on final that is due 17th so I can track this week and finish next weekend, I really hope there are no big storms next weekend lol, too many things to focus on lol. Don't worry frank sroc, mugs etc it will all get done, I graduate with my masters in May!

Rayno mentions at the very last seconds of his video of a chance for snow on the second part when the upper level low comes through Thursday, jeeze, this thing is Monday night into thursday, that is just nutty.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/midweek-storm-to-blast-northeast/3901417444001

Once it starts occluding and cold air starts wrapping around the main body of the low from the western side, I don't doubt that everybody will see snow. The question lies in how fast the surface temps can drop below freezing and how much precipitation is left. I haven't really looked at the situation for other areas except for mine, but I can lol EURO Ensembles are running, details in a few.

Ok, so the latest ensembles are right in line with the operational. However, there are still very large uncertainties in exactly how far north the warm nose at 925/850mb makes it. The range is from the Adirondack Mountains to Cape May. Granted, those are extremes, but that demonstrates the volatility of the situation, which all lies in how rapidly the low levels intensify. I do think that NWNJ/NEPA is about where the battleground for mixing will be, but if the closing off can be delayed by any amount of time at all, that will allow for colder solutions (obviously, the later it closes off, the colder it will be). This is because as the low and mid-levels close off, there is a tendency for all of the features to become "vertically stacked", which means that because there is a westward tilt with height in these storms, the lower-levels lows will be "sucked" westward underneath the mid-/upper-level low. If we want more snow, we have to hope that the actual event closes off slightly later than the Op and Ensemble mean show, which is still possible.

Another difficult and challenging one.Still a possibility for snow especially N and W, but rb mentions a scenario where more cold air can get dragged in.Anyway, some areas far N will get blasted with this one.Very interesting storm for the Meteorological hobbyist.

15z SREFs and 18z NAM are a torch for everybody on this board, including myself lol Only saving graces for me are that 1) I don't trust 06/18z runs; 2) it's the NAM, and 3) I don't start following the NAM until the event is within the 48 hour window, and we are right at the cutoff of that now (whatever helps me sleep at night, right?) lmao

Nice RB, so I know you are talking inland but any chance for areas near the coast like me and Al in southern westchester? If at all it looks to be at the later part of the storm. Tuesday just looks aweful with torential rains and high winds. JB tweeted winds gusting to 60mph over LI and my local forecast calls for gusts to at least 40mph (sorry Al, I think we still have a issue with scattered trees coming down), no umbrulla will do any good for that so I guess it will be getting blasted in the face with rain if you have to be out like myself. Gonna try to stay in the office as much as I can. This is going to be a long tiring week of nowcasting deluxe.

RB i wouldnt buy the NAM on that one, wait, if you do plan to use the NAM, for tonights 00z run and tomorrows. If this ends up being really bad I do not think people will have much notice, other than us weenies.

RB one thing I noticed that once the LP comes in the low locations skew immensly from a tight pack to all over the place. This is where the confusion comes in I think.

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...7 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
OCCASIONAL SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY.

* TEMPERATURES...MAINLY BETWEEN 30 AND 35.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...A MIX OF RAIN... SNOW... AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MIXED
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY... CHANGING TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY...
HOWEVER THE WORST CONDITIONS MAY BE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HEAVIER SNOW FALLING.