December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

Was just outside and we have some very light snow flurries right now.

I know soul, and honestly, the storm on 11/1-11/2 had warning level wind gusts and there was not even a advisory until they started to die down lol.

UPDATE: The above image is my old snow map. I do not have time to make a new one, but the one change I think should be made is to drag the 3-6 zone a little more south and east to encompass most of NW NJ and western Orange County. There is a wild card zone in eastern PA that could end up seeing higher amounts than what the map depicts due do a training CCB that could station itself over that area Wednesday. It's a tough forecast and these type of things are difficult to forecast.

For everyone else...nothing to really change. GFS still showing winds gusting possibly over 60 mph along the coast off the LI Sound. Going to be an interesting day. Stay safe! Be prepared for possible power outages

HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVECTED TO AN ADVISORY AS LATEST PROFILES
SUGGEST THAT 50+ KT REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MODERATELY STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER. HAVE INCLUDED NYC METRO FOR THE WINDS ON THE
BRIDGES.

So Frank do you think this is a volatile statement?  This is from latest NWS disco, or do you still feel that gusts over 50mph are likely?  Like I said before its been a long time since I seen them issue a HWW and maybe they are just being cautious, I mean 40 mph versus 60mph is a big difference in terms of possible power outages. See the chance they upgrade it overnight, because it seems your thinking is still the same.

18Z NAM FTW!!

jmanley32 wrote:HIGH WIND WATCH WAS CONVECTED TO AN ADVISORY AS LATEST PROFILES
SUGGEST THAT 50+ KT REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MODERATELY STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER. HAVE INCLUDED NYC METRO FOR THE WINDS ON THE
BRIDGES.

So Frank do you think this is a volatile statement?  This is from latest NWS disco, or do you still feel that gusts over 50mph are likely?  Like I said before its been a long time since I seen them issue a HWW and maybe they are just being cautious, I mean 40 mph versus 60mph is a big difference in terms of possible power outages. See the chance they upgrade it overnight, because it seems your thinking is still the same.

The highest wind gusts transcend to the surface when rain is coming down at a heavy rate. Even if the city does not see 60 mph winds, they are in a good spot to see at least 50 mph gusts tomorrow.

So outside outsidebof city along Hudson River u think it will stay below crireria? Just the city and immediate lincoast? I shouldn't even ask.lol as u said it's hard to predict as we do not know how much will mix down. Wind always seems to be a nowcast which I get.

algae888 wrote:rb models def are trending colder. temps today are 5-10 below forecast. when uULL closes off its going to have some very cold air to work with. west and even south of it can pick up some heavy snow showers and some acc. models do not do a good job with this. some are going to be pleasantly surprised.

Al great point and the models due and always have done a piss poor job at modeling the low level cold air that we have had and are experinecing - high of only 29.5* when forecasted for 34* big difference in my book and we start with snow and icy conditions then we get the warm tongue of air then it wraps up and we get the occluded aspect going and some snow at teh end - hopefully accumulating but the surface may be too warm - coastal area not going to happen but inland cp, doc, snow, Rb, nw nj from say oakland to sussex and anyone else with a good elevation - west milford - will see accumulations IMO as it wraps up. 

The NAM has moved the surface low from essentially along the NJ Coast to a more classic position south/southeast of Long Island. Amazing shift in under 12 hours..

Just my take at this time from models short range RGEM, nam, srefs. 

We' ll see.

Mugs. I did notice that in the NAM maps you posted.

Definitely looks like it shifted east but I'm a layman at this so wasn't sure how significant that could become if it verifies and I didn't want to get anyone's hopes up. It's just one run and one model but let's see what the other short range models do. During the pre Thanksgiving storm the shirt range models picked up on the extent of the mid level warming the night before. They seem to pick up on things the mid range models will miss.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Mugs. I did notice that in the NAM maps you posted.

Definitely looks like it shifted east but I'm a layman at this so wasn't sure how significant that could become if it verifies and I didn't want to get anyone's hopes up. It's just one run and one model but let's see what the other short range models do.  During the pre Thanksgiving storm the shirt range models picked up on the extent of the mid level warming the night before. They seem to pick up on things the mid range models will miss.

Right on

Just a observation my drive from the south bronx to where I am now in yonkers next to Deegan the temp dropped from 35 to 31. That's pretty big for a 6 mile inland drive.

24 degrees here in West Milford. I have a feeling tomorrow morning's commute to work could be ugly...

It will be dicey for AM commute but from the futurecast I saw on news (will remain nameless but a local source) just a little while ago shows the heavy rain and winds coming mid-morning into late afternoon. They calling for wind gusts 50+ still in southern WC (power outages, they even mentioned Sandy! WTF is wrong with them, this is NOT sandy not even close), city, all boroughs and LI/coastal CT. Says flooding in the westchester area will be a big problem with 2-4 inches of rain possibly localized more. Short range models have shown less rain than that though. We will see.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Mugs. I did notice that in the NAM maps you posted.

Definitely looks like it shifted east but I'm a layman at this so wasn't sure how significant that could become if it verifies and I didn't want to get anyone's hopes up. It's just one run and one model but let's see what the other short range models do.  During the pre Thanksgiving storm the shirt range models picked up on the extent of the mid level warming the night before. They seem to pick up on things the mid range models will miss.

CP - first of all Happy Birthday my OTI brother.

Secondly, you got that right and that is the purpose of the shorter range models to pick up these nuisances.
The cold air seems to eb more entrenched than forcasted and I think there will will be icing issues in the NW hills of NNJ and up your way even more.

The NAM is showing the SLP even more east and than its 12z run, the H7 is further east and its colder with a big swath of CCB (cold Conveyor Belt) that would bring snow to the areas it sets over - how big and where is a good question but it looks to be trending this way. Look teh surface may be to warm but if we get a good ccb and decent time of it yuo will see covering to accumulations IMO.

This is the problem this storm so it becomes a nowcasting.

HeresL you guys are in for a rough morning commute up there and then again - I can see a good 3+" up your way overall with this storm

So whats the latest on the storm when is this thing start cranking. How is the storm looking at this point?

Based on the 1981-2010 climatology, the normal annual precipitation for Central Park, NY is 49.94". 8 of the 9 years from 2003-2011 had well over 50" for the year. The one year that did not was 2010 when it got 49.37." The wettest of those years was 2011 when 72.81" fell, the second wettest year on record only behind 1983's 80.56." (Interestingly enough, its 2011 total topped 50" that August when Hurricane Irene hit) 2012 was much drier with 38.51" and 2013 had 46.32." As of right now, Central Park has 49.75" of precipitation in 2014 and with this upcoming storm, it will almost certainly finish the year wetter than normal.

Interestingly enough, I looked at all 145 years from 1869-2013 for the annual precipitation and found that those years had an average of 45.25" with a standard deviation of 8.25" so if Central Park gets 3.76" between now and the end of the year, than 2014's precipitation total will be one standard deviation above that mean. Should be interesting as to how much it will get with this upcoming storm.

As of 7:03 PM Upton has CPK getting 2.09" between now and Wednesday evening but that could change based on how the heavy bands set up.

Despite the 18z NAM being east of 12z look at 850s and surface, even in heavy CCB except far NW edge all above freezing which means cold rain, yet another big waste of moisturr for snow lovers.

Here we go ladies and gentleman.......latest SREFs are considerably further east (and colder. specifically for the northwestern areas) than the 09z runs, and I'm sure are east of the 15z as well (haven't looked yet) at 850hPa. I think we may be witnessing the beginning of a slight eastward shift in the models. This would also mean that it may end up being colder than what we thought earlier. Now, they don't keep much moisture around after the initial surge, but I would be surprised if that verified given the circumstances. Lets see if this trend continues with the other short range models.....

The latest NAM is slightly west of 12z (wtf???), here's why; in the 12z run it kept h5 open, which allowed the continuation of northeastward motion of the H7 closed low before it stacked under the closing circulation at H5 over NYC/LI. In this latest run, H5 now closes off while the H7 closed circulation is still in southern NJ. As a result, the H7 circulation is not allowed to continue slightly east before its forward progress is stopped; rather, it is forced to stay where it is. HOWEVER, the thermal profile looks almost identical from what I can tell, which is likely caused by the much heavier precip that it is bringing in to northwestern areas (thereby forcing a strong dynamical cooling component). These regions likely do quite well with this solution IF this were to verify verbatim.

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=ne&model=nam&run=12&fhr=24&field=acctype

Temp is going up fast up to 31 here

Everything with this forecast is going to depend on how early/late the mid-levels close off. If they close off a little later, it will wind up being colder. If sooner, then warmer. Period. Pretty much a now-cast from this point. Maybe, you could argue until the 09z SREF/12z NAM runs tomorrow, but the event will already be underway. Depends on what part of the storm you want to "now-cast" lmao. In my opinion, I still think a slightly colder solution will win out here, between dynamics, and the ageostrophy in the low levels helping to lock in the colder air, but that's just me. Have to see what I wake up to in the morning and take it from there lmao happy tracking!!!!

Winds starting to get going here ground is saturated worried about trees comingdown once we see full force winds

rgem gives some descent wrap around snows over c nj and just west and north of nyc

Anybody see the current radar? Look at the "fire hose" aimed right at the state of NJ lol It's only the beginning too.......crap lol

still going hour 48. big change from 12z

0z NAM snow map with sleet factored out. Much colder with 8-10" up here