December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm
+17
algae888
Quietace
oldtimer
NjWeatherGuy
CPcantmeasuresnow
rb924119
Taffy
Snow88
SurfNJ
sroc4
Dunnzoo
skinsfan1177
RJB8525
aiannone
amugs
jmanley32
Frank_Wx
21 posters
Page 4 of 7 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm
Hey
The storm looks like it wants to slam directly into North Carolina. WHAT GIVES? Currently 32 and north/northeast winds and snow flurries here in Nassau County LI.
The storm looks like it wants to slam directly into North Carolina. WHAT GIVES? Currently 32 and north/northeast winds and snow flurries here in Nassau County LI.
Guest- Guest
Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm
FWIW 18z NAM came in further east at H7 with the closed low compared to 12z, and now has it centered just off the NJ coast. 850 0c line reflects this too. SREFs are still a torch for everybody through sunset on Wednesday before 850s start crashing. I don't think I've ever seen the SREFs be so much different from the NAM this close to an event before. Gonna be interesting to see which model suite verifies closer.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6890
Join date : 2013-02-06
Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm
For the time being, it seems I'm the lucky one. NWSBing tells me I can expect 8-12 by the time all is said and done.
Guest- Guest
Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm
rb924119 wrote:FWIW 18z NAM came in further east at H7 with the closed low compared to 12z, and now has it centered just off the NJ coast. 850 0c line reflects this too. SREFs are still a torch for everybody through sunset on Wednesday before 850s start crashing. I don't think I've ever seen the SREFs be so much different from the NAM this close to an event before. Gonna be interesting to see which model suite verifies closer.
Just when I started getting a twinge of hope I checked the NWS and they just updated. Now 0% chance of snow anywhere near coast even on Wed night Thursday just rain and all there snow totals probabilities have been moved west by at least 50 miles. Now jackpot seems to be Binghamton Syracuse Utica area. Even Hunter Mountain area at 3000 feet looks iffy. THIS SUCKS!!
Guest- Guest
Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm
Hey Ares Wow Enjoy the 8-12 Where is Painted Post ??
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1103
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2013-01-16
Age : 78
Location : Port Jefferson Station Suffolk County
Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm
With the sun going down in now down to 32.2 from a high of 34. Still snowing hard and starting to accumalate once again.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
- Posts : 3687
Reputation : 33
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 27
Location : Point Pleasant, NJ
Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm
Painted Post is way west of all of you. I'm about 70 miles west of Binghamton.
Guest- Guest
Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm
Ryan I got light snow here 32* This is our tease lol
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1103
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2013-01-16
Age : 78
Location : Port Jefferson Station Suffolk County
Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm
I just went to a Warning for 8-12" with more in the higher elevations. This storm is a now-cast, no doubt about it. These amounts and details are going to change even through tomorrow as it evolves. Just gotta wait and see
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6890
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm
Nowcast for sure, for the coast I am ready for the wind and rain, not go be fun but what ya gonna do, as we get closer to January and into jan if we have storms like this we will get crushed, just gotta stay optimistic. Also looks like end of CMC has a storm that looks colder, but its 240hr cmc of course.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm
syosnow94 wrote:rb924119 wrote:FWIW 18z NAM came in further east at H7 with the closed low compared to 12z, and now has it centered just off the NJ coast. 850 0c line reflects this too. SREFs are still a torch for everybody through sunset on Wednesday before 850s start crashing. I don't think I've ever seen the SREFs be so much different from the NAM this close to an event before. Gonna be interesting to see which model suite verifies closer.
Just when I started getting a twinge of hope I checked the NWS and they just updated. Now 0% chance of snow anywhere near coast even on Wed night Thursday just rain and all there snow totals probabilities have been moved west by at least 50 miles. Now jackpot seems to be Binghamton Syracuse Utica area. Even Hunter Mountain area at 3000 feet looks iffy. THIS SUCKS!!
can't believe no snow even for nw/nj and epa. upton and mt. molly have 0 snow acc. in there forecast for these areas. is there a mistake?
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm
There has to be, I literally just checked lmao omg, this is what we can expect until this storm ends ahahha
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6890
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm
Ok so to my surprise they downgraded the high wind watch to a advisory, I think that's wrong but we will see, NWS has been known to change things all over the place with systems like this.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm
jmanley32 wrote:Ok so to my surprise they downgraded the high wind watch to a advisory, I think that's wrong but we will see, NWS has been known to change things all over the place with systems like this.
jman here is upton wind advisory...
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EST TUESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EST TUESDAY.
* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER AND NASSAU.
* HAZARDS...HIGH WINDS.
* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 50 MPH AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE LARGE BRIDGES
AROUND NEW YORK CITY.
* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.
I guess with wind and snow map there are thinking storm will be weaker . actually I don't know what there thinking.lol
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm
IMO this wil lchange, I think they jumped the gun on a advisory and noit a warning too soon, but they also just put up a coastal flood warning now. No idea what they are thinking either. Wait and see, but nothing much to get excited about for us in snow weenie land, gonna be wet and nasty.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm
rb924119 wrote:There has to be, I literally just checked lmao omg, this is what we can expect until this storm ends ahahha
I had to post. what are they thinking? can't wait for there disco!
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM
TUESDAY TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.
* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF VERMONT AND NEW
YORK...AS WELL AS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT.
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION.
* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES OF HEAVY DENSE SNOW...ALONG WITH
AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.
* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...MAINLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND BECOME HEAVY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HEAVY SNOW WILL LIGHTEN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...MIXING WITH RAIN AND SLEET AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME DIFFICULT DUE TO SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP SHARPLY IN THE HEAVY
SNOW. IN ADDITION...THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW AND SLEET MAY ALSO
LEAD TO POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES.
* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
* VISIBILITIES...REDUCED TO A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES TUESDAY
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM
TUESDAY TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.
* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF VERMONT AND NEW
YORK...AS WELL AS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT.
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION.
* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES OF HEAVY DENSE SNOW...ALONG WITH
AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.
* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...MAINLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND BECOME HEAVY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HEAVY SNOW WILL LIGHTEN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...MIXING WITH RAIN AND SLEET AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME DIFFICULT DUE TO SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP SHARPLY IN THE HEAVY
SNOW. IN ADDITION...THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW AND SLEET MAY ALSO
LEAD TO POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES.
* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
* VISIBILITIES...REDUCED TO A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES TUESDAY
NIGHT.
_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4814
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm
Their maps and disco will probably change from now through tomorrow several times, I remember a snowstorm last yr that as it was snowing the totals and areas of totals kept changing
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm
rb models def are trending colder. temps today are 5-10 below forecast. when uULL closes off its going to have some very cold air to work with. west and even south of it can pick up some heavy snow showers and some acc. models do not do a good job with this. some are going to be pleasantly surprised.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm
There is such a fine line between wind advisory and warning its like what 10mph on gusts? I think its silly but that's the threshold, not really much of a difference, but downed from 55-60 to 40mph is a big difference.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm
I hope you are right Al : )
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm
jmanley32 wrote:There is such a fine line between wind advisory and warning its like what 10mph on gusts? I think its silly but that's the threshold, not really much of a difference, but downed from 55-60 to 40mph is a big difference.
i was looking at the new advisory they put out..this is what they define
A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH...
OR GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. WINDS THIS
STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.
this is what the actual advisory says for NYC
WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 50 MPH AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE LARGE BRIDGES
AROUND NEW YORK CITY.
lol
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1994
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 38
Location : Hackettstown, NJ
Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm
the sustained part is below criteria, and the gust part is 7mph away from a warning at 58mph lol
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm
I think they may have seen something that takes this slightly weaker, but all it will take is a tiny increase to have them change their minds again. Maybe they felt they had to issue a official advisory being its so close and they will fine tune it as it happens, ie. nowcast.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm
jmanley32 wrote:I think they may have seen something that takes this slightly weaker, but all it will take is a tiny increase to have them change their minds again. Maybe they felt they had to issue a official advisory being its so close and they will fine tune it as it happens, ie. nowcast.
UPTON is usually very conservative when issuing high wind warnings. We've had countless wind advisories since I moved here and I can't remember the last time we had a HWW.
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2853
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY
Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm
Was just outside and we have some very light snow flurries right now.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6890
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm
I know soul, and honestly, the storm on 11/1-11/2 had warning level wind gusts and there was not even a advisory until they started to die down lol.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Page 4 of 7 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|