Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

by **algae888** Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:26 pm

still going hour 48. big change from 12z

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 I_nw_r1_EST_2014120900_048

by **aiannone** Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:26 pm

0z NAM snow map with sleet factored out. Much colder with 8-10" up here
December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Captur10

by **Dunnzoo** Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:33 pm

Cold trend continuing, 12z Nam and GFS were colder too

by **aiannone** Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:37 pm

What's everyone's current temp?

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:38 pm

37 here

by **rb924119** Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:39 pm

22 degrees, light flurries, and northeast wind between 5-10 m/h here in the Poconos

by **algae888** Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:43 pm

nws has expanded wwa for all of nnj rockland and northern west. for up to a tenth of an inch of sleet/fz rain. I knew with surface temps well below forecast wintry precip had to happen
December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Okx

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Okx

by **algae888** Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:44 pm

31* dp 25*

by **aiannone** Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:45 pm

Nice! Currently 13.4* here under cloudy skies and calm wind.

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:45 pm

Hey Al, thats ever so close to us, nowcast time.

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:47 pm

Wow nothing on radar when I started watching movie around 8, now its coming full scale up coast.

by **algae888** Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:49 pm

ice map has changed from nws

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 StormTotalIceFcst

some snow this morning over li and coastal nj and now ice over a good part of the area what else does this storm have up its sleeve? driving could be treacherous in the morning.

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:50 pm

It is 34 here now.

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:51 pm

0.22 ice. thats getting up to dangerous levels if its freezing rain.

by **algae888** Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:53 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Hey Al, thats ever so close to us, nowcast time.

yes but I think we are to close to the sound. temps probably inch above freezing when precip starts. how ever ground is cold as we were below freezing the whole day with a low last night of 19*. have to watch out for icy spots in the early morning hours

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:55 pm

Yes, I know I said ever so close, but I think its a fine line and it ends in northern wc. waiting to see how these winds shape up, skins says its started down there, still thinking might be higher than advisory level but i could be wrong, so far there have been def changes and unexpected things and its not even here yet.

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:56 pm

I don't think I have ever seen so many color codes for the upton map before lol, its rediculous!

http://www.weather.gov/okx/

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:01 pm

Ok the NAm and GFS 00z all bring about a inch of rain to NYC and west, east more, thats a big change from before, I don't think the models mean a whole lot at this point though do they?

by **Dunnzoo** Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:02 pm

Al, beat me to that WWA for me and mugs..... temp is 33°

by **algae888** Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:03 pm

this from steve d
Watch for all locations to go over to snow on Wednesday morning
Don't be surprised if those advisories hit the coast by Wednesday morning.

he is impressed with polar jet already stronger than forecast

by **rb924119** Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:05 pm

I think the only models that are going to mean anything at all are the short range models, Jman. It's just my opinion, but this close to the event the medium range guidance doesn't always prove to be superior. I'm now focused on the SREFs, NAM, UKMET and RGEM. If I forgot any others, I apologize to them lmao

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:08 pm

rb the NAM showed a big dry area around the city, that would bust the rain big time, i don't buy it.

Upton NWS notation interesting:

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE CITY AND ADJACENT AREAS NOT WITHIN THE
ADVISORY COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET. WILL HOLD OFF ON EXPANDING THE ADVISORY INTO THESE AREAS
FOR NOW.

by **algae888** Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:08 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Ok the NAm and GFS 00z all bring about a inch of rain to NYC and west, east more, thats a big change from before, I don't think the models mean a whole lot at this point though do they?

rgem also not as much rain as before. I think we will have about a 6 hour period of heavy rain and wind. then precip will become more showery in nature.

by **rb924119** Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:20 pm

jmanley32 wrote:rb the NAM showed a big dry area around the city, that would bust the rain big time, i don't buy it.

Upton NWS notation interesting:

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE CITY AND ADJACENT AREAS NOT WITHIN THE
ADVISORY COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET. WILL HOLD OFF ON EXPANDING THE ADVISORY INTO THESE AREAS
FOR NOW.

Take note of the dry air to the southwest of the system, which is associated with the strong subsidence behind the synoptic forcing. As the system continues to occlude that sinking/drying air is advected into the system by the cyclonic flow around the east side of that. In very wrapped up systems like this one will likely be, that is actually very believable to me, and actually I would say likely.

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:23 pm

So u think the flooding they were calling for is not a threat anymore? Cause the NAM only shows a bit over a inch for me, thats not really a flood threat.

Wow on NAM 925 winds at same time has heaviest precip.

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Nam_9210

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Nam_9210

by **rb924119** Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:26 pm

Oh no; I still think the flood threat is high. Over an inch of rain in six hours added to astronomically high tides AND a very strong and already persistent onshore fetch; that's a recipe for some minor to moderate flooding in localized spots for sure.

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:28 pm

Thats true I wasn't thinking about the short duration of the worst part.

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