Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event----
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Dtone
Math23x7
Sunflowers138
HeresL
CPcantmeasuresnow
NjWeatherGuy
skinsfan1177
amugs
algae888
docstox12
Dunnzoo
Snow88
aiannone
jmanley32
Frank_Wx
sroc4
20 posters
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Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event----
I opened up a new thread to isolate the discussion about this event. For now keep the late week system in the LR thread.
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event----
18z gfs started as snow then quickly changed to freezing rain or sleet. Heres 1pm.
Euro seems to start as ice for NYC then change to rain. Just N&W is more ice, then we'll north and west might be all snow
Euro seems to start as ice for NYC then change to rain. Just N&W is more ice, then we'll north and west might be all snow
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Re: Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event----
I feel that the models never do a good job of factoring in the snow cover with these overunning events. It should keep temps. 3 to 4 degrees colder than forecast. Always seems to work this way.
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Re: Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event----
freezing rain as high as 0.25 to 0.5, not good if it were to happen. but its old gfs.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event----
Ugg this could make for a real ugly monday evening commute.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event----
12z had a bigger area of 0.25 to 0.5, nothing like snow covered ice (being sarcastic).
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event----
According to AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, "Odds favor rain in southeastern Virginia and coastal Maryland, an icy mix from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia and at least some snow from New York City to Boston."
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event----
The weak low near the coast ruins it for coastal areas. It raises the heights as it heads northward. The GFS has the freezing line and 850 line right near the coast for the start of the event but it warms up as the low comes northward.
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event----
00z Nam
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Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event----
About a 6 hour period of snow and freezing rain before all rain IMBY on NAM. 00z GFS is about the same with a inch or less of snow for coastal areas. Still has significant freezing rain in some areas.
Last edited by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 09, 2015 11:15 pm; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event----
It really is going to be a tough call Monday, going to be a nowcast unless something changes to solidify the cold. But with the sw flow, gonna be a tough day...
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Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event----
Looking like an all slop event up here, maybe a tick above freezing but mostly snow,sleet,freezing rain.Do not like these events at all,would rather it be plain rain or all snow.Maybe i can get an inch or two to add to the totals anyway.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event----
6z gfs and para are colder while 6z nam came in a little warmer. gfs has low well east of where nam has it. nam and cmc for that matter have low come just south of nyc. we need that low to move east like gfs if we want to see more in the way of snow.
gfs
nam
gfs
nam
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event----
GFS like I said in the LR - it's last hurrah??
Either we see snow to ice to rain to snow IMO. Lovely.
Hope the gfs is right and we are a tick colder
Either we see snow to ice to rain to snow IMO. Lovely.
Hope the gfs is right and we are a tick colder
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event----
This could be a decent snow or ice event for those located north, NW, and NE of NYC. I don't think NYC will remain cold enough. H7 is cold, but H85 and H925 are not.
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Re: Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event----
North Shore of LI here always a little colder than city and south shore. Plus fresh snow cover. Do you think we're in play here??
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Re: Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event----
syosnow94 wrote:North Shore of LI here always a little colder than city and south shore. Plus fresh snow cover. Do you think we're in play here??
As of now, no.
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Re: Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event----
I ASKED ONCE BEFORE!! PLEASE STOP BEING HONEST AND LIE TO ME!!
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Re: Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event----
Not looking good for most of us well hope in the storm at end of week.
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event----
nam cmc are very different than gfs for this event. gfs is colder but very little precip with it. surface low that forms is well east of other two models. I think our best hope is a few inches of front end snow and a change to drizzle at the end. so weaker and drier is probably better at this point. nam cmc are very warm with mostly rain. starting to lose interest in this one.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event----
The 12z cmc has trended colder at the surface although it will change to rain at the very end there is a prolonged period of mainly ice from just north of and west of New York City it could be a dangerous situation Monday morning. the GFS is a little colder then the CMC and the nam would have to be an outlier right now as it holds off precipitation until after 10 a.m. Most models have precipitation falling by 7 a.m. Monday temps would fall due to wet bulb and have a very hard time recovering with a weak southwest wind which will shift to the north. there will not be much precip but we don't need much to have a dangerous ice situation
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event----
I'm basically done with Monday.
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Re: Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event----
another thing to consider is that we will have about an inch of snow pack and the ground which is very cold and frozen from the last few arctic out breaks. even if temperatures are 33 34 degrees the rain would still freeze on those colder surfaces.
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