Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event----

jmanley32 wrote:temp here has dropped from 36 to 34.9 in less than a hour (according to wxunderground station closest by).  I do not buy the GFS, IMO the morning is going to be rough areas n/w of NYC, but who knows temps are marginal even down to this area but probably not much further south.  When do the two GFS models consolidate tomorrow what run?

12z

Jman it's the 14th. Tomorrow is the 12th

Pfff lol, shows how tired I am, derrr

i'm noticing that 00z models do not have any precip falling over our area until 14z or 9am. if precip starts at that time we will have very little fzr to worry about. looking at current radar (appr philly).looks like precip will start earlier unless it dries up before reaching us. dp are low so that is a possibility.

Dunnzoo wrote:I'm trying to find sources for temps at all levels for tomorrow, kinda like this site, since there are no soundings sites near me, all too far away, either LI or Albany that I could find. I think we are in trouble here in Bergen County in the A.M.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=01&model_dd=12&model_init_hh=06&fhour=00¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false
Hey Janet here is the site I use for soundings. You should be able to get soundings more specifically for your area using GFS, NAM, and RAP with this site.  Click the map over the area you want a sounding for.  Once it opens up the soundings forecast should see a small box with a google map in it and the area you prev clicked pinned(red with black dot in center) in the top right of the page.  You can zoom in or out as far as you want.  Then you can reposition your pin and click plot new sounding.  You can plot the sounding for your exact Lat/Long.  The Top left of the page you will be able to toggle through the specific forecast hr you want your soundings for as well.

33°, there was freezing rain for a little while last night here about 2:45, mild out now

Little icy this morning out here but nothing too bad

Lots of delayed openings here in Bergen County, but looks like it wasn't necessary...

Plain rain on Long Island all the way into downtown NYC. If it can't be snow, far better it be rain than ice! Very relieved commuter here.

busted forecast (which is good) by nws as we have had only .01" of precip. I mentioned last night that all models had no precip for our area until 9am. nws said precip should start by 5-6 am. radar did look good last night but dp were very low suggesting very dry air so precip never made it to ground even though there were good returns overhead. traffic is moving very well on hutch better than a normal day and much better than Friday when we needed the WWA. maybe NWS will get the next one right.

raining now and 33*. can it get any worse than this!!!!

32.7, 84%, 30.37 F. There was freezing rain, icy spots up here.May still be freezing at this temp.

I'll verify that Doc. I just did the three mile drive to the bus at Woodbury common. Side roads and driveway I could ice skate on. Woodbury common parking lot almost fell three times it was a sheet of ice. On the thruway now on my way to midtown and no problems.

Total bust. Unbelievable how literally nothing involving any kind of wintry precipitation that has been forecast this winter has come to fruition A disaster for all forecasters.

33* and freezing rain....hetting rough out there on sidewalks and walkways

syosnow94 wrote:Total bust.  Unbelievable how literally nothing involving any kind of wintry precipitation that has been forecast this winter has come to fruition  A disaster for all forecasters.

On Long Island maybe but a skating rink north and west of the city.

I had a tiny bit of slush on my wipers this morning g but I am glad we had no icing. I am looking at this lack of snow only in one positive way is that I am not breaking my back or struggling to find street parking among mounds of snow. But I do hope we see at least one good storm before the winter is out.

Love how the radar over the last few hours shows the frozen precip/rain lines up so clearly with the topography in NNJ. The ridge lines are the dividing lines.

In Bloomfield, eastern Essex County, air temps we were just above freezing overnight. As I drove west up the hill into Verona, Montclair and West Orange there was lot more ice on side roads. Coworkers who live in Morris County and west are talking about the icy conditions on everything but the main roads.

syosnow94 wrote:Total bust.  Unbelievable how literally nothing involving any kind of wintry precipitation that has been forecast this winter has come to fruition  A disaster for all forecasters.

The most pointless WWA in recent memory, temps have been several degrees above freezing since late morning yday. To the west and well north of NYC there is/was some ice though. So not a total bust for some.

Icy conditions this morning on side roads, walks and driveways - skidded 2x in my town but the main roads are just wet. Parking lot here at school had a lot of icy spots as did the walks and they salted.

Meh, I am not even going to call this a bust because I literally did not expect anything out of it. 850,925mb and surface were all too warm.

34* .10" of freezing rain....still very slippery here

Frank_Wx wrote:Meh, I am not even going to call this a bust because I literally did not expect anything out of it. 850,925mb and surface were all too warm.

Frank was to his credit pretty adamant at the get together of a non-winter event.

Dropped from 37 down to 34 in the last hour here, now some sleet mixing in. Thought the temps were supposed to rise.

GFS, NAM, and HRR all have a changeover to snow tonight down to the coast as colder air gets wrapped in. In fact temps don't seem to be rising much out of the low to mid 30s so it won't take much of a drop I'm surface temps and usually those are the most stubborn and 850s are what cool the fastest in a departing low. Here is the HRRR snow accumulation map. Shows a coating to an inch.

aiannone wrote:GFS, NAM, and HRR all have a changeover to snow tonight down to the coast as colder air gets wrapped in. In fact temps don't seem to be rising much out of the low to mid 30s so it won't take much of a drop I'm surface temps and usually those are the most stubborn and 850s are what cool the fastest in a departing low. Here is the HRRR snow accumulation map. Shows a coating to an inch.

Better than nothing. Now change over faster and get that to 2 inches.

Alex,

Hi-res models last night began to show that. Will be interesting to see if anything comes out of it tonight.