Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)

Yesterday in my first update I took a look at the overall upper air pattern that this storm will be working with. We have an east-based block over Scandinavia which should help slow down the northern stream features. Additionally, there is a western ridge to help align a trough over the eastern U.S. What we do NOT have is a 50-50 Low, an HP to the north, or a west-based -NAO. This means the duration of this storm is probably going to last between 8-12 hours, meaning this will not be some sort of "blockbuster" or "Roidzilla," but a Godzilla is very much still on the table.

12z EURO Model

The EURO brings The Heat:



Whoops, my bad. That's the wrong context. Meant to show this:



There is your glorified 972mb low just inside the BM bringing a swath of 12+ inch snows from Philly to Boston and 6-12 inches NW of I-95. Lets check out what the EURO did today with the upper air configuration



This image depicts early Saturday morning. The purple arrows represent the northern and southern jet streams. I think you're all knowledgeable enough to know which one is which. There's a nice western ridge pushing ashore with a sharp-looking trough over the southeastern U.S. Notice how the H5 energy is nice and compact near the base of the mid-level trough. Thus, heights along the EC are able to rise and allow the H5 energy to take a track up the coast off of NJ.



Forward to Saturday afternoon, now you have a closed off H5 low south of Long Island. The northern and southern branches have phased and bombogenesis is taking place. An all out blizzard / Godzilla is impacting the area as dynamic cooling comes into play. Even though there is not much northern stream interaction, the potency of the southern stream is enough to develop a strong system.

12z GFS Model

I say same ol' GFS because remember this model got upgraded not too long ago. However, I still feel like its typical progressive bias is still showing (the same bias the old GFS model had).



Iv'e seen a lot of comments basically dismissing this run of the GFS, but honestly it's not like it lost the storm. It's very much there and even bombs out just like the EURO. The track is east of the BM, however, so many are left with a glancing blow.



Here you see the GFS on Saturday morning. Look at the energy within the mid-level trough. It's very elongated along the eastern quadrant. This means we have a progressive trough tracking east with flat heights along the east coast. The energy is still strong, so a storm does form, but we want to see the southern s/w energy be consolidated at the base of the trough.



By Saturday afternoon the GFS manages to phase both jet streams but it occurs too late for our area to see a meaningful storm. I sincerely think the GFS is not handling the southern stream s/w correctly. It's trying to scoot it ahead of the trough instead of capturing it and harnessing it. This will obviously effect how it tracks the storm. Don't get me wrong, we have been in a progressive pattern so its solution is not totally out of left field, but give how its ensembles look and the other foreign models...I have a hard time believing it right now. BUT, its solution remains a possibility as much as no one likes to hear that.



One other thing to consider are the sea surface temp. anomalies off the coast. They are running much above normal. This is going to help fuel the storm some more, and in my opinion, promote a track closer to the coast. I'm not thinking right along the coast...but a track on or just inside the BM is what my heart is telling me right now. Where the northwesterly and south-southeasterly winds meet is where the baroclinic zone is likely to set up. Bombogenesis is most certainly to occur with this system, regardless of where it tracks.

Confidence:

Hit- 70%

Out to sea- 30%

Timing:

Early Saturday morning until early Saturday evening

Stay tuned, Update #3 around same time tomorrow!

I'll take it!!!

TWC was just doing their hourly update and talking about Iola and parts of texas are currently getting 5-8

He(can't remember his name he's on all the time) then moved onto the Northeast and giving EURO and GFS models. he talked about the comparasions about differences but said all ensembles are leading towards the Euro and basically said could be a very big snow event for the north east

Whats your confidence in a godzilla all out "B" versus just a modest snow say 4-8 or 6-12?  This may be a unanswerable question but just asking. You staying up for all the runs tonight? And great writeup I hope it harnesses it like the Euro does, not only would it be a awesome storm but the images we will get from sattelite will be cool too.

I cannot believe I am going to miss this storm. I waited all winter break for a storm on the coast and now I leave and literally 4 days after a major nor'easter is awaiting. FML......

aiannone wrote:I cannot believe I am going to miss this storm. I waited all winter break for a storm on the coast and now I leave and literally 4 days after a major nor'easter is awaiting. FML......

You think that's bad.....

I have lived in NE PA my entire 23 years on this planet, and NOT ONCE have I ever experienced thundersnow. The first year that I left for school, that winter my parents had it here at the house twice; TWICE!!!! I came home for the big February storm last winter highly confident that I would see it then, and there were reports of it in Sussex, NJ, which is the next county east of me, but it never crossed the Delaware River. I never saw it at school my entire undergraduate career and I just graduated this past May. First major winter storm they got up there this season- THUNDERSNOW LIKE CRAZY. I was so mad. lmao talk about slaps in the face ahahaha

Thanks Frank. Optimism and scientific common sense.

Looks great Frank !! One thing that some are saying not enough cold air banked which could mean several hours of mixing at the start

I want to go back to the fridays vs. chili convo. lol. Just kidding.
But Jman, love those LI ice teas. Nothing gets you going like one of those. OK, 5 of those. But you understand.

I'm hoping Euro verifies. This will be a fun convo friday night if this comes to fruition. I miss those late nights with the gang.

devsman wrote:I want to go back to the fridays vs. chili convo. lol. Just kidding.
But Jman, love those LI ice teas. Nothing gets you going like one of those. OK, 5 of those. But you understand.

I'm hoping Euro verifies. This will be a fun convo friday night if this comes to fruition. I miss those late nights with the gang.

And it comes on a Friday night, so we don't have to work the next day (most of us).

Analog96, I work Saturday from 7 AM to 1 PM...

Math23x7 wrote:Analog96, I work Saturday from 7 AM to 1 PM...

I got 9am-10pm both Saturday and Sunday...

I get to come in at 5AM and start setting up the plows, lol.

NWS is downplaying snow and emphasizing freezing rain because of higher temperatures aloft. Any thoughts on this?

I've got a hunch that this storm might have a trick up its sleeve. On one hand being in a progressive pattern as unlikely as it is, you can't take the current GFS solution off the table. Then when you look at the other extreme, we are just a mere 6 hour earlier phase from having an area wide 1 to 2 foot blizzard. If the EURO holds on to its solution tonight and 12z tomorrow, it'll be game on.

Nutley What you said, doesn't it make it all exciting to follow this biggie?? Wow

rb924119 wrote:

aiannone wrote:I cannot believe I am going to miss this storm. I waited all winter break for a storm on the coast and now I leave and literally 4 days after a major nor'easter is awaiting. FML......

You think that's bad.....

I have lived in NE PA my entire 23 years on this planet, and NOT ONCE have I ever experienced thundersnow. The first year that I left for school, that winter my parents had it here at the house twice; TWICE!!!! I came home for the big February storm last winter highly confident that I would see it then, and there were reports of it in Sussex, NJ, which is the next county east of me, but it never crossed the Delaware River. I never saw it at school my entire undergraduate career and I just graduated this past May. First major winter storm they got up there this season- THUNDERSNOW LIKE CRAZY. I was so mad. lmao talk about slaps in the face ahahaha

RB....I'm lucky enough to have experienced thundersnow twice....once as a kid in Monmouth County during the March '93 Blizzard.....and the second time walking out of a bar in Manhattan, Brother Jimmy's to be exact, during the 2010 December Blizzard....remember seeing bolt of blue colored lightning followed by a boom of thunder the minute we walked out, was scary......I just remember thinking during both storms, that these weren't nice fun snows....both were mean SOB's

LB3147 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

aiannone wrote:I cannot believe I am going to miss this storm. I waited all winter break for a storm on the coast and now I leave and literally 4 days after a major nor'easter is awaiting. FML......

You think that's bad.....

I have lived in NE PA my entire 23 years on this planet, and NOT ONCE have I ever experienced thundersnow. The first year that I left for school, that winter my parents had it here at the house twice; TWICE!!!! I came home for the big February storm last winter highly confident that I would see it then, and there were reports of it in Sussex, NJ, which is the next county east of me, but it never crossed the Delaware River. I never saw it at school my entire undergraduate career and I just graduated this past May. First major winter storm they got up there this season- THUNDERSNOW LIKE CRAZY. I was so mad. lmao talk about slaps in the face ahahaha

RB....I'm lucky enough to have experienced thundersnow twice....once as a kid in Monmouth County during the March '93 Blizzard.....and the second time walking out of a bar in Manhattan, Brother Jimmy's to be exact, during the 2010 December Blizzard....remember seeing bolt of blue colored lightning followed by a boom of thunder the minute we walked out, was scary......I just remember thinking during both storms, that these weren't nice fun snows....both were mean SOB's

Wowwwww, that's so cool!!! I'm so jealous!!! I would give just about anything to witness it in person

I saw thundersnow in March, 1993, January 1996, February 2006, and thundersleet in January 2011.

Analog96 wrote:

devsman wrote:I want to go back to the fridays vs. chili convo. lol. Just kidding.
But Jman, love those LI ice teas. Nothing gets you going like one of those. OK, 5 of those. But you understand.

I'm hoping Euro verifies. This will be a fun convo friday night if this comes to fruition. I miss those late nights with the gang.

And it comes on a Friday night, so we don't have to work the next day (most of us).

I'm off so i'll be up all nite. BTW analog, I think I know the site ur talking about but I wont even mention it. If it is the site i'm thinking of...that is a site filled with people who make predictions based on saying who is smarter or dumber than who and then putting people down when they make a comment that isn't popular.

This place is fun and very informational. Everyone here is friendly and most important, answer weather questions when asked without putting you down. And of course, Frank is the MAN! Everyone at my job knows Frank without ever meeting him. So now, during storms, everyone comes up to me and says... "So what did Frank say?" I love it!

Agree with EPAWA, DT is nuts to be putting out amounts now.

So what are we looking at in tonight's runs specfically

For the mid level trough to go neutral faster. That would raise heights along the EC and bring a storm track to the BM.