Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)
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Re: Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)
For the mid level trough to go neutral faster. That would raise heights along the EC and bring a storm track to the BM.
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)
That's a horriblemap if that verify
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)
Got you Frank thanks I will be on edge like everyone else waitingFrank_Wx wrote:For the mid level trough to go neutral faster. That would raise heights along the EC and bring a storm track to the BM.
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)
Frank great analysis again and the gfs bias is at play s&e. Just look at this wekends storm where it was ots and then 36 hours before brought it west like the Euro. I do not discount the gfs but it never has handled the southern stream storms well the Euro does.
Quick questo on today's clipper was to bomb out up by newfoundland and be a 50/50 low for us but from what you are saying it is pulling a fast one and exiting right.
A couple more runs by the Euro and if and I suspect it will hold we are in business.
IF we had the 50/50 block then MOMMA MIA peeps we are talking BECS cause there would have been a full phase somewhere off the demarcation or VA capes imo
Quick questo on today's clipper was to bomb out up by newfoundland and be a 50/50 low for us but from what you are saying it is pulling a fast one and exiting right.
A couple more runs by the Euro and if and I suspect it will hold we are in business.
IF we had the 50/50 block then MOMMA MIA peeps we are talking BECS cause there would have been a full phase somewhere off the demarcation or VA capes imo
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)
As strange as it sounds from my personal experience, when there is a threat of an impending snowstorm, I get more of a rise tracking it and having baited breath with each model run that comes out, then when the storm finally arrives, its more of a satisfied feeling. By the way the SREFS came west.oldtimer wrote:Nutley What you said, doesn't it make it all exciting to follow this biggie?? Wow
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)
nutleyblizzard wrote:As strange as it sounds from my personal experience, when there is a threat of an impending snowstorm, I get more of a rise tracking it and having baited breath with each model run that comes out, then when the storm finally arrives, its more of a satisfied feeling. By the way the SREFS came west.oldtimer wrote:Nutley What you said, doesn't it make it all exciting to follow this biggie?? Wow
I'm same exact way. It's weird. Yay, I'm not alone.
00z NAM is broken! My wish has come true!!!,
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Re: Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)
Frank_Wx wrote:nutleyblizzard wrote:As strange as it sounds from my personal experience, when there is a threat of an impending snowstorm, I get more of a rise tracking it and having baited breath with each model run that comes out, then when the storm finally arrives, its more of a satisfied feeling. By the way the SREFS came west.oldtimer wrote:Nutley What you said, doesn't it make it all exciting to follow this biggie?? Wow
I'm same exact way. It's weird. Yay, I'm not alone.
00z NAM is broken! My wish has come true!!!,
LOL by the time this storm comes on Saturday, I'll be tracking the Miller B for Mon-Tue and potential long range Groundhog Day system.
Analog96- Meteorologist
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Re: Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)
Not on wxbell it isn't lol, you care to know or not? I would guess not. I have seen thunder snow and sleet. Last year I do not recall the date but it was a crqzy mix of snow sleet rain and flooding, lots of lightning. When I was a kid it scared living daylights out of me in the daytime playing in the snow. And a few times when I used to go to MA a lot.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)
Thunder snow Feb7/8 2013 NEMO! Along with 29" beautiful inches of the white gold.
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Re: Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)
[quote="Analog96"]
LOL by the time this storm comes on Saturday, I'll be tracking the Miller B for Mon-Tue and potential long range Groundhog Day system.[/quote
Mjo going showing a wave near or at the dateline from the jan 28 to feb 3 timeframe which would support east coast storms and cold during that time frame as well almost brutal cold
Frank_Wx wrote:nutleyblizzard wrote:As strange as it sounds from my personal experience, when there is a threat of an impending snowstorm, I get more of a rise tracking it and having baited breath with each model run that comes out, then when the storm finally arrives, its more of a satisfied feeling. By the way the SREFS came west.oldtimer wrote:Nutley What you said, doesn't it make it all exciting to follow this biggie?? Wow
I'm same exact way. It's weird. Yay, I'm not alone.
00z NAM is broken! My wish has come true!!!,
LOL by the time this storm comes on Saturday, I'll be tracking the Miller B for Mon-Tue and potential long range Groundhog Day system.[/quote
Mjo going showing a wave near or at the dateline from the jan 28 to feb 3 timeframe which would support east coast storms and cold during that time frame as well almost brutal cold
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)
Oh good gracious lets hope for the first, the second would be a disaster and sunday would seemed like nothing.
NWS HWO for my area:
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COASTAL STORM SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT COULD RESULT IN EITHER
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION...OR SIGNIFICANT ICING
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE REMAINS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW...AND THIS WILL GREATLY IMPACT THE
TYPE AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION.
NWS HWO for my area:
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COASTAL STORM SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT COULD RESULT IN EITHER
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION...OR SIGNIFICANT ICING
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE REMAINS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW...AND THIS WILL GREATLY IMPACT THE
TYPE AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)
Analog96 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:nutleyblizzard wrote:As strange as it sounds from my personal experience, when there is a threat of an impending snowstorm, I get more of a rise tracking it and having baited breath with each model run that comes out, then when the storm finally arrives, its more of a satisfied feeling. By the way the SREFS came west.oldtimer wrote:Nutley What you said, doesn't it make it all exciting to follow this biggie?? Wow
I'm same exact way. It's weird. Yay, I'm not alone.
00z NAM is broken! My wish has come true!!!,
LOL by the time this storm comes on Saturday, I'll be tracking the Miller B for Mon-Tue and potential long range Groundhog Day system.[/quote
Mjo going showing a wave near or at the dateline from the jan 28 to feb 3 timeframe which would support east coast storms and cold during that time frame as well almost brutal cold
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)
jmanley32 wrote:Oh good gracious lets hope for the first, the second would be a disaster and sunday would seemed like nothing.
NWS HWO for my area:
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COASTAL STORM SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT COULD RESULT IN EITHER
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION...OR SIGNIFICANT ICING
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE REMAINS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW...AND THIS WILL GREATLY IMPACT THE
TYPE AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION.
nothing scares me more than ice
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)
The Gulf is going to be a big player in organizing this storm. Keep in mind the initial phase will occur tomorrow morning near AZ. The mid-level trough containing the H5 vort will be fueled by the southerly flow off the Gulf. On the surface, there's going to be an expansive precip. field and where there is a cluster of convection is likely where the surface low develops. As long as the H5 energy doesn't elongate itself ahead of the trough, there will be a potent surface low coming up the coast given the ridge-trough orientation.
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Re: Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)
nutleyblizzard wrote:As strange as it sounds from my personal experience, when there is a threat of an impending snowstorm, I get more of a rise tracking it and having baited breath with each model run that comes out, then when the storm finally arrives, its more of a satisfied feeling. By the way the SREFS came west.oldtimer wrote:Nutley What you said, doesn't it make it all exciting to follow this biggie?? Wow
You are normal, for this Forum, and among friends.
I call it the Christmas morning syndrome. As kids we all love the buildup for the days leading up to Christmas morning, unless of course we're non Chrisitian, and then in five minutes it's over and the letdown starts.
We are all adults that never outgrew that.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)
Don't go on youtube and search crashes from sunday then, then you will be really traumatized. But I do not buy a ice storm, I just do not see how and trust in what Frank has stated tonight.
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Re: Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)
Frank_Wx wrote:The Gulf is going to be a big player in organizing this storm. Keep in mind the initial phase will occur tomorrow morning near AZ. The mid-level trough containing the H5 vort will be fueled by the southerly flow off the Gulf. On the surface, there's going to be an expansive precip. field and where there is a cluster of convection is likely where the surface low develops. As long as the H5 energy doesn't elongate itself ahead of the trough, there will be a potent surface low coming up the coast given the ridge-trough orientation.
All guidance is showing a very deep low, it depends on where they track it, but even the GFS eventually gets this thing into the 970s.
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Re: Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)
NAM is slower with the southern stream and way more organized than the GFS......I think we may see a phase with this run.
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Re: Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)
rb924119 wrote:NAM is slower with the southern stream and way more organized than the GFS......I think we may see a phase with this run.
Im out to hr 54...it looks like we are already starting with N stream interaction
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Re: Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)
Hr 57 1003 just W of HAT, light snow up to about I 195
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Re: Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)
One second we hate the NAM but when its nice we love it lol
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Re: Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)
Look at the consolidation at the base of the trough
[img][/img]
[img][/img]
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
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Re: Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)
So anywhere from 2 to 4 or hecs, mecs, or becs, wow very big spread I fold now nyc 7+
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Re: Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)
The NAM is strung out, and doesnt deepen, im out to hr. 66, not looking good to me.
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Re: Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)
Image didn't show analog
LP passing S E of MB on this run
LP passing S E of MB on this run
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