Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)

I bet Frank changes his map tonight, looks like amounts go up, Frank can you include a idea if any where the worst frz will be and how much u think? My wife wants to go to the doctor in the morning (not urgent) but I said it really depends, I can handle the snow but ice foreget it too many hills by me, dunno where to even park tonight as cars got slammed last sunday just being parked, I just got my new car and would cry if anything happened to it.

SREFs continue the trend of a slight NW tick and even EARLIER closing off of 850 hPa low. I like this because it's going to continue to allow price on the western side to fill in. 18z NAM also has a similar look to it.

Just got home.  ALL LOCAL PRO METS ON RADIO  (I listened to 5 different forecasts) HAVE AT MOST 1 to 3" city on east and south and 3 to 5' north and west before a changeover.  And that's total storm accumulations.  What gives?  I also posted that I thought NWS would have updated the entire area except Eastern LI to a WS Warning but they haven't budged yet. Someone in this scenario either us on here or the local METS are gonna look real bad tomorrow!!!!

rb where do u look at srefs and do they have snow totals?

I think the mets are being cautious till the last minute, I have seen WSW go up during a event. Those amounts are way to low. even TWC has me for 4-8. WSW criteria.

dang total qpf sref for white plains mean is 1.05!

18 Z NAM looks even colder than 12 Z yes James something's gotta give Lonnie Quinn on WCBS radio just said 0 to 2 inches for Central Park they must know something we don't by the way National Weather Service just upped snowfall totals on my phone can't post map

Upton 3-5" of sleet! on top of 2-4" of snow or do you think they meant total snow and sleet?
.TONIGHT...SNOW...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO SOUTHEAST
10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW
NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY...SLEET...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN
RAIN AND SLEET LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL SLEET ACCUMULATION OF
3 TO 5 INCHES. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. BREEZY. NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING
NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.

ICE! Quite a long time too and heavy, been consistent on that since yesterday.

NAM total snow/ice. Safe to say we will see a WSW at some point at least in and around NYC, looks like south of NYC is too warm like LI.

amugs wrote:"...TOTAL SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES."

Mama mia! That's a lot of sleet. I guess that much is possible, but I find it hard to believe the NWS thinks anyone is going to get 3-5" of sleet. That's got to be a total of snow and sleet together.

Mugs I dont think its a good idea for Syo to rant

No Al that's a total of 5-9 and dang that much ice, yes sleet is not as bad but can still cause major driving troubles.

jmanley32 wrote:rb where do u look at srefs and do they have snow totals?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallsref.html

WSW starting to be posted north of city and into CT!

that sref is out of its mind believes mostly rain, nah.

syosnow94 wrote:Just got home.  ALL LOCAL PRO METS ON RADIO  (I listened to 5 different forecasts) HAVE AT MOST 1 to 3" city on east and south and 3 to 5' north and west before a changeover.  And that's total storm accumulations.  What gives?  I also posted that I thought NWS would have updated the entire area except Eastern LI to a WS Warning but they haven't budged yet. Someone in this scenario either us on here or the local METS are gonna look real bad tomorrow!!!!

easy there! The mets on the networks are always conservative since they blew that blizzard forecast years ago. They will wait until 6 or 11:00 to change any amounts...don't want to look bad again.
Also, many of you are looking at the NAM, it overdoes the precip so don't get too excited...

Not good they upped icing totals:

NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-ORANGE-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
336 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...MUCH OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...AND INTERIOR NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND ICE.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY 6 INCH AMOUNTS. 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* VISIBILITY...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES SATURDAY
MORNING.

* SNOWFALL RATES...1 INCH PER HOUR EARLY TO MID SATURDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...SNOW BEGINS LATE TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BECOME MODERATE TO
HEAVY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING.
PRECIP SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY CHANGING BACK TO SNOW MID TO LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING IN THE EVENING.

jmanley32 wrote:that sref is out of its mind believes mostly rain, nah.

I'm being totally honest when I say this, and am certainly NOT trying to be a downer, but from my own personal experience they are LETHAL in this timeframe.

Blow ur min on this snow map

Al where did you read that 3-5 sleet thing, I cannot find it in disco or the advisory.

...and I just got my daughter off the bus and there is a stiff s/se breeze of easily over 10 mph.  Never a good sign.  i don't believe the higher totals or freezing rain threat.  I think if I had to choose I'd side with the local METS right now.   HOPE I'M WRONG

oldtimer wrote:Mugs   I dont think its a good idea for Syo to rant

What??

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:that sref is out of its mind believes mostly rain, nah.

I'm being totally honest when I say this, and am certainly NOT trying to be a downer, but from my own personal experience they are LETHAL in this timeframe.

I haven't used SREFS for any part of any operational forecast one time in my life.

Well syo all I can say is if it ices it ices if it doesn't it doesn't, no one will know till tomorrow, just becareful if it does and stay in if you can. And the winds are forecast to shift per NWS. Like Janet said mets are being cautious, this is common.

jmanley32 wrote:Well syo all I can say is if it ices it ices if it doesn't it doesn't, no one will know till tomorrow, just becareful if it does and stay in if you can.  And the winds are forecast to shift per NWS.  Like Janet said mets are being cautious, this is common.

How would winds not have a northerly component with a strong low to your east?