Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)

Well syo all I can say is if it ices it ices if it doesn't it doesn't, no one will know till tomorrow, just becareful if it does and stay in if you can. And the winds are forecast to shift per NWS. Like Janet said mets are being cautious, this is common.

jmanley32 wrote:Well syo all I can say is if it ices it ices if it doesn't it doesn't, no one will know till tomorrow, just becareful if it does and stay in if you can.  And the winds are forecast to shift per NWS.  Like Janet said mets are being cautious, this is common.

How would winds not have a northerly component with a strong low to your east?

Oh opps I thought he said southerly nvm, tired long day headed home in a few.

Analog96 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:that sref is out of its mind believes mostly rain, nah.

I'm being totally honest when I say this, and am certainly NOT trying to be a downer, but from my own personal experience they are LETHAL in this timeframe.

I haven't used SREFS for any part of any operational forecast one time in my life.

Well that's why I said I was quoting from my own experience lol It's only my opinion; not law lmfao

insane ice totals, now what I do not buy for a second on that map is the NYC getting .5 inches ice.  that shows anywhere from .1 to .75, jesus if that were to verify it would be like a new England ice storm.



also has 6-10 inches snow, I likie this model : )

Let's be real, this is not our storm. Maybe an inch or two on the front end then rain and slop. Even if there is some back end snow it probably will melt in the puddles.

RGEM comes in COLD for NYC, barely any rain at all. mostly snow and ice.

JMAN, you may finally get that historic ice storm after all!

Just came back from dropping my son off.  Heard 3 different radio forecasts.  NO CHANGE in the forecast.  Actually 2 of them said after a mid-morning changeover a heavy windswept rain should wash away all the accumulations.  Again someone is going to look real bad on their forecasts.  I can't believe they would be this conservative.  It's safer for the public for them to be overly bullish on the snow and ice so if they're wrong at least people don't travel.

Soul I hope we dont get much ice Thats not good I remember back in the day in the early 70"s never forget living in Nassau County In the middle of the night 26* with heavy freezing rain You can look it up

This is a very difficult forecast. Very high bust potential either way, right now Mt. Holly and pro mets going with conservative calls and with all the p types we are dealing with i think that is an ok call right now. This is a complete nowcast situation, going to load up on red bull and start watching obs and radar trends, time to leave these bad models behind.

Nj Very well put I agree and understand your post thanks

Yes model watching is done by the time 00z are out we may already have precip falling, well soul, I never said I wanted one because I know how devastating it can be however I have never experienced it and I always have said I want to experience everything weatherwise once. So as long as people be safe and don't drive if its ice (even on top of snow can be even worse) then it will not be a problem, the issue is when people start driving and not realizing how bad it is. Yes people can lose power in ice storms but that's easily fixable. We will see what happens, and I do believ e we will see some decent snow, if it is all ice in that small area I posted it will be a very bad situation and one for the books, IMO, I could be dead wrong but I have never seen ice of that much on the models for so many short range runs, and even the GFS as can be seen came on board with that. Concerning yes, definite, no.

I actually just looked at the LP position and instead of coming off the coast of NC it stays inland and comes out over the ocean just north of Virginia Beach. Doesn't sound like a big difference but... This means the flow ahead of it is more east/southeast, (which is what I'm feeling outside right now) than if the low came out earlier and was more east bringing winds more from a northeasterly direction. I think that spells warm air in the midlevels and very little snow. Just one man's opinion.

Just watched Lee - saying 6+ inches possible for area in NNJ - West Milford, Mahwah up to Goshen and Northern Westchester County and points west says I 287 is the dividing line of the r/s line - never addressed any icing issues although NWS is steadfast on this. Jersey coast change to rain by 4AM

Said difficult forecast and we may see a good band of backend snow - coating to maybe 2" out on mid to easter LI

Gotta go with Lee, Mugs, as he is a very accurate Met in this area.Seems,like Frank says above, this thing trended a bit colder for us up in the northern and western zones.These are the storms I remember so often when I was young..."areas N and W of the City will have higher amounts of snow.As Tom said above so accurately, this is a radar watch and nowcast situation.High and middle clouds moved in up here an hour ago. Fasten your seat belt,CP, we are right next to the WSW zone! So glad I'm out of Mahwah where more of a chance of a mix might happen!

28.7, 71%, 30.16R

I gotta say: it is quite 'balmy' in the city right now lol. A bit disconcerting for frozen precip.

SoulSingMG wrote:I gotta say: it is quite 'balmy' in the city right now lol. A bit disconcerting for frozen precip.

Read my post up above about LP location and the actual wind direction right now.

33° here down 3° in last few hours temp is dropping