Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)
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Re: Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)
Ice will become an issue for many of us again like Sunday as noted in the above map lovely
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)
looks like precip is done by noon
quick hitter
quick hitter
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)
I personally cannot ever remember an intense LP bringing freezing rain. Sleet yes and lots of it, but usually with an intense nor'easter it's rain to snow or vice versa. I seriously doubt freezing rain with the precipitation rates and vertical motion we look to have.
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Re: Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)
with no blocking or hp to our north this storm is going to race by. lets see if rgem does the same.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)
syosnow94 wrote:I personally cannot ever remember an intense LP bringing freezing rain. Sleet yes and lots of it, but usually with an intense nor'easter it's rain to snow or vice versa. I seriously doubt freezing rain with the precipitation rates and vertical motion we look to have.
This. I mentioned it earlier today as well.
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)
NWS has said frz could well be a issue and that map shows .1 to .25 for many, its concerning but makes sense what soul and syo say but odder things have happened so just be prepared.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)
jman .10 is bad enough but .25 would be insane!
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)
No one is seeing .25" of ice. Ignore. .10" is the max.
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Re: Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)
Okay was just go by what it showed on that image .1 to .25, but yeah thats a lot. Then again and in all due respect Frank last weekend was not exoected at all and some got close to .25, not wishing it but I just do not want to see a repeat of thiose accidents, but .1 is enough especially on top of snow.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)
jmanley32 wrote:Okay was just go by what it showed on that image .1 to .25, but yeah thats a lot. Then again and in all due respect Frank last weekend was not exoected at all and some got close to .25, not wishing it but I just do not want to see a repeat of thiose accidents, but .1 is enough especially on top of snow.
I did not see any reports of .25 inches of ice last weekend. All around .10 to .15
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Re: Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)
mugs mentioned that amount a bit earlier, was going by what he said. Or someone said it I know im not going senile lol
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)
jmanley32 wrote:mugs mentioned that amount a bit earlier, was going by what he said. Or someone said it I know im not going senile lol
00z GFS coming out now
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Re: Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)
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Re: Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)
RGEM is colder and gives a good front end thump of snow.
Gfs looks about the same?
Gfs looks about the same?
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)
2-4 front end snow followed by some freezing rain then rain
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Re: Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)
Frank_Wx wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Okay was just go by what it showed on that image .1 to .25, but yeah thats a lot. Then again and in all due respect Frank last weekend was not exoected at all and some got close to .25, not wishing it but I just do not want to see a repeat of thiose accidents, but .1 is enough especially on top of snow.
I did not see any reports of .25 inches of ice last weekend. All around .10 to .15
We had close to that here, based on Harrison's COOP report, and Harrison would have less than I would.
...ESSEX COUNTY...
CEDAR GROVE 0.20 800 PM 1/18 TRAINED SPOTTER
...HUDSON COUNTY...
HARRISON 0.20 1115 AM 1/18 TRAINED SPOTTER
Analog96- Meteorologist
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Re: Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)
amugs wrote:RGEM is colder and gives a good front end thump of snow.
Gfs looks about the same?
GFS is snow for about a 5-6 hour period. Rest of the storm is mixed
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algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)
Frank_Wx wrote:amugs wrote:RGEM is colder and gives a good front end thump of snow.
Gfs looks about the same?
GFS is snow for about a 5-6 hour period. Rest of the storm is mixed
Going to depend on rates.
Also, not sure if sfc cold air gets scoured out as fast as GFS says.
It likes to warm the sfc up too fast from previous experience.
Analog96- Meteorologist
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Re: Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)
5mm as ice for NYC
5mm = .20"
Ouch...
5mm = .20"
Ouch...
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Re: Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)
Any time frame for start/end
mako460- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)
0Z RGEM gives us some good back end snow.
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)
some nice backend snow on rgem
I would go with rgem over gfs at this point
I would go with rgem over gfs at this point
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)
mako460 wrote:Any time frame for start/end
Check upper right of snow map on 1st page
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Re: Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)
got it, thanks Frank
mako460- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)
Frank_Wx wrote:5mm as ice for NYC
5mm = .20"
Ouch...
OH CRAP!! ICE STORM?? I have not seen this much freezing rain with a coastal before - agree? This would be nuts well so goes this winter I guess.
Good night all see ya in the AM - interesting runs IMO - RGEM RGEM!!!
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)
One encouraging sign is that the latest RGEM and NAM runs have come out with colder solutions. Keep in mind that the large scale models often over do it with the warmth. Just something to watch for as we draw closer to the event, and into the range of the hi-res models.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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