Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

WSW are already calling for 10" - 14"+. That is a significant storm that would require local govt to pull out all the preparation stops. I think they are playing it well. I wouldn't wanna throw crazy numbers like 35" unless you have extreme confidence. If they are preparing for 15" they wont be caught completely off guard if the 2ft+ totals verify. I think they will save the big Roidzilla type numbers until late tonight to tomorrow morn if trends continue.

Blah blah blah TV Mets

Lee G. Is the only one I follow. The others, well, no.

nam hr 30 is west 0f 00z

Lee isn't irrational like the rest. Blizzard Watch here as well

SNOW MAN wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Accuweather map means business; Everyone is on board. Even TWC map has NYC in 12-18" snows

A thing of beauty!!!!!!!!!!

Good morning Doc. See I told you I fixed the snow machine, but WOW I didn't know it was going to go NUTS.
The bad thing is I'm probably going to miss out on the really BIG totals.

Morning, Snow. Attaboy, you've done the job well.6 to 12 is pretty good for you, you could have been really cutoff and gotten an inch or two.Each run has been ticking west a bit.You may bump up further.These coastals favor the Jersey Shore, LI, SE CT and RI anyway.

...WINTER STORM/BLIZZARD PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...

WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE TRI-
STATE AREA. THIS MEANS HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS...SUCH
AS HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS OF 35 MPH OR HIGHER WITH SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1/4 MILE FOR AT LEAST 3
HOURS...MAY AFFECT THE AREA IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...BUT ITS
OCCURRENCE...LOCATION AND TIMING ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...
OR VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT...WEATHER.GOV/NYC AS THIS WATCH MAY BE
UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

BEFORE THE STORM STRIKES...BE PREPARED.

AT HOME OR WORK THE FOLLOWING ITEMS SHOULD TO BE AVAILABLE...

  * FLASHLIGHTS AND EXTRA BATTERIES.

  * CANNED FOOD AND A MANUAL OPENER...BOTTLED WATER AND ESSENTIAL
MEDICATIONS.

  * A FIRST AID KIT.

  * SUFFICIENT HEATING FUEL.

  * A WORKING FIRE EXTINGUISHER AND SMOKE ALARM.

  * SALT AND SAND.

  * A BATTERY POWERED RADIO.

MAKE SURE YOUR PETS HAVE PLENTY OF FOOD...WATER AND SHELTER.

MAKE SURE YOUR VEHICLE IS FULLY CHECKED AND WINTERIZED. CARRY A
WINTER STORM SURVIVAL KIT INCLUDING BLANKETS...CELL PHONE...A
FLASHLIGHT WITH EXTRA BATTERIES...A SHOVEL AND A MAP.

IF YOU BECOME STRANDED IN YOUR VEHICLE...ENSURE THE TAIL PIPE IS
CLEAR...THEN STAY INSIDE...RUN THE ENGINE 10 MINUTES EACH HOUR FOR
HEAT...KEEP YOUR WINDOW OPEN TO AVOID CARBON MONOXIDE
POISONING...AND FROM TIME TO TIME EXERCISE BODY PARTS TO KEEP
BLOOD CIRCULATING AND TO KEEP WARM. TIE A COLORED CLOTH TO YOUR
VEHICLE.

IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...TRY TO STAY DRY AND COVER EXPOSED BODY PARTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PREPARING FOR WINTER STORMS...PLEASE
VISIT...READY.GOV

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Ratios are 12:1 15:1 20:1 depending where you are

When the bulk of the snow falls up here, it will be about 20 degrees.They predict 10 to 14 with a 10:1 ratio.How do I calculate what I would get with that temp?

Doc.  Frank posted the euro around 3 AM last night that had the ratios figured in. It had New York City for 40 inches with a bull's-eye around it. we were in the 30 to 36 and bull's-eye.

If verified for us that would rival two of the biggest I've seen in the last 20 years the January 1996 where we got 34 inches and of course February 2010 we received 36 inches. I guess we're shooting to beat that one. Hard to believe.

Someone had a chart last night at 20° are ratios would be about 18 to 1. Of course there's more than just temperature involved so that's a rough estimate.

If it happens, I expect a massive HV Snow Weenie party honoring myself for moving up here and bringing the magic along. Hello Monroe.....Goodbye Mahwah,LOL!

Can anyone update the 12z NAM? i am out and can't see on cell- its the only one not completely on board

By 00z tonight we can start looking at the NAM. I'll give my permission. Till then, it's crap and wrong and need to go away.

RJB8525 wrote:ABC has an annoying attitude of "we want to make it right" meaning they'll take as much time as possible to really stay with it.

Freeze says mixing In NYC Lee says not a lock..lol I think after all today's runs they'll put numbers on a board tonight

Amy freeze stated several times yesterday morning that New York City only received a couple of inches of snow. Every reporting station other than the inaccurate central Park reported 4 to 5 inches in New York City yesterday. But they so can't look outside the box to realize that. They just go with the inaccurate measurement in central Park which is always an accurate. Those of the mornings you wish Bill Evans was on. At least he would point that out in a joking way what a joke the 2 1/2 inches is.

No response yet from NOAA it'son the e-mails, I hope everyone is sending them in. If we don't apply pressure now get set for the under measurement of all time with this storm. a word to the wise

suds123 wrote:Can anyone update the 12z NAM? i am out and can't see on cell- its the only one not completely on board

It shows 12-24 inches for the area

dsix85 wrote:I'm in Commack (North Shore Western Suffolk County)...could we rival the 2013 event where we had 33 inches?

Im a little east of you in Wading River.  The answer is yes the potential for that is def there for equal, higher, and more wide spread higher amounts than th Feb 2013 storm "Nemo"  In case anyone was wondering this one is:

JUNO

Troughs are significantly deeper than 00z through hour 36

lol- ty

lol. Frank's disdain for the NAM never more evident.

Frank_Wx wrote:

suds123 wrote:Can anyone update the 12z NAM? i am out and can't see on cell- its the only one not completely on board

It shows 12-24 inches for the area

Good to hear because last night's Nam Run, even though it is the Nam, made me a little nervous.

rb924119 wrote:Troughs are significantly deeper than 00z through hour 36

It closed off over DE. Wow

The NAM is the type of model you don't want to sleep with more than once.

Thanks sroc..I've frequented Great Rock last year by you..great golf course

Yeah that's literally perfect for all of us, I think lol

Frank_Wx wrote:The NAM is the type of model you don't want to sleep with more than once.

Friggin' hilarious, Frank!!!!!

For the record from my astrological friend text me:

Earth, Mercury, Venus and.......................the big boy Jupiter are in alignment this week

Perigee of earth and Jupiter are a few degrees off - last time this happened he said was 1978.............HMMMM what happened then oh that's right PD Storm
BAZINGA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

RJB8525 wrote:ABC has an annoying attitude of "we want to make it right" meaning they'll take as much time as possible to really stay with it.

Freeze says mixing In NYC Lee says not a lock..lol I think after all today's runs they'll put numbers on a board tonight

Amy freeze stated several times yesterday morning that New York City only received a couple of inches of snow. Every reporting station other than the inaccurate central Park reported 4 to 5 inches in New York City yesterday. But they so can't look outside the box to realize that. They just go with the inaccurate measurement in central Park which is always an accurate. Those of the mornings you wish Bill Evans was on. At least he would point that out in a joking way what a joke the 2 1/2 inches is.

No response yet from NOAA it'son the e-mails, I hope everyone is sending them in. If we don't apply pressure now get set for the under measurement of all time with this storm. a word to the wise

Lee G is a really good Met.  When he says something like its not a lock it certainly makes my ears perk up.  The man has seen it and done it.  He has knows how hard it is for things to come together just right as is being depicted.  He has seen the last minute busts after super hype.  He is a pro for making that statement.  That being said I would be willing to bet if you had a convo with him right now off the record he would say he would agree with the current outlook of an historic system.

docstox12 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:The NAM is the type of model you don't want to sleep with more than once.

  Friggin' hilarious, Frank!!!!!

DITTO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Frank_Wx wrote:The NAM is the type of model you don't want to sleep with more than once.

And then it always seems to show up at the same place as you trying to tempt you to look at it.

Yeah, you don't take the NAM home to meet your parents!

billg315 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:The NAM is the type of model you don't want to sleep with more than once.

And then it always seems to show up at the same place as you trying to tempt you to look at it.

HA! So true Billg