Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Check out my latest blog if you wanna know about the potential snowstorm Monday

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2015/01/possible-snowstorm-february-2-2015.html

In the blog I highlight 3 potential tracks this storm could take

blog not showing up for some reason

skinsfan1177 wrote:blog not showing up for some reason

i thought the same thing if you click on home it shows up..hope that helped!!

No mention of the NAM on your blog frank?

Like you said, sleep with it once and you regret it. LOL. Too good

I got it by hitting "blog archive" on the actual blog page.

Taffy wrote:I got it by hitting "blog archive" on the actual blog page.

Bingo, Taffy!

Nice write up, Frank, and I'll take that 33% chance for heavy snow up here.

I fixed the link, my bad

Nice write up Frank as usual so I guess for me I'll be routing for the green track

Great blog Frank. I love how I am beginning to understand some of the terms and starting to be able to read or at lest follow some of the models. Thanks to all. I knew if I was patient some of this would start sinking in.

Great write up Frank. Almost got me excited to track another. I think I still need a few days to decompress.

BLUE, BLUE, BLUE - there is the chant from me!

Great write up as always an din depth analysis.

Blah on the color Purple and Oprah!

Frank, would you see each of the three possibilities as about equal as far as likelihood right now, or does one track seem more likely from the current information.

Blue would be my obvious weenie preference, but the green seems more likely.

I guess this winter any solution that gives us a miss should be given an extra 5% or 10% likelihood under the oft cited "cuz it just doesn't want to snow here" theory.

More northern stream interaction results in a stronger storm. A stronger storm means a track further north, possibly even more north then what my blue track shows. A track between blue and green is a good bet in my opinion.

The DGEX model is showing a solution not shown on any of the global models (yet). And in my opinion, is also on the table. If the western ridge pumps more from the Pac. Trough and tropical forcing, this would amplify the trough on the east much more and actually allow the storm to come up the coast instead of moving from west-east. It would be coming from the southwest. This would bring Godzilla potential. Not saying it's lijely, still need to see better trends from other models, but it's possible. Especially cause we have blocking.

I was just going to say a track between blue and green, would that allow for godzilla possible snow for NYC but maybe even higher ratios being it would be a bit colder but not far enough south to do what you said it would do at the green line? Will keep a eye on this for sure, still reeling from Tuesday, but yes time to move on and you did fine, NO ONE saw it coming and I love that Cuomo wants to build his own weather computer system what will it be called the CUO? LOL, Oh also Frank really? What is Love for the blog song! So over played in early 90's, I guess you wouldn't know lol, but its a song for sore ears, JK great blog write up as usual.

Frank devman banned, he mentioned the NAM! And the DGEX , didn't you say thats a godaweful model? Never hear you speak of it and the one time I mentioned it you told me if was crap. Anyways that looks nice, so we have two maybe 3 possible tracks for godzilla snow, cool.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/snowstorm-to-cause-delays-form-midwest-to-east-coast/3901417444001

Rayno, good video basically seems similar thinking to yours Frank, I HOPE if this does take the blue or inbetween blue and green lines that NYC does not play who cares this time, no it wouldnt be like the progged 2-3 feet but a foot plus in NYC is no joke, and am hoping for you all in NJ who missed out completely last time and up north/west of NYC lets make this a good one for all.

Great write up Frank. Looks like we are on the same page

Frank. Great write up. If we get snow when do you think it might start

Nice job, Frank! My own personal thought, based on what I saw yesterday morning (from the previous day's runs, I think?) would be that a more amplified solution would be highly possible. With the wave train that was expected to redevelop over the Pacific in response to a rapid cyclogenesis event along Asia's east coast, it was helping to really dig in our friend, the Aleutian trough. This was then spiking the ridge along our west coast. It didn't appear as if it would collapse in time for this storm because the jet was still pretty far removed from its western flank. I don't know if the situation has changed, really: I've been too busy the last day or so to really look into it.

Mac003 wrote:Frank. Great write up. If we get snow when do you think it might start

Thanks everyone.

Late Sunday, around Midnight.

Heaviest snow would fall between 4-11am

Frank_Wx wrote:

Mac003 wrote:Frank. Great write up. If we get snow when do you think it might start

Thanks everyone.

Late Sunday, around Midnight.

Heaviest snow would fall between 4-11am

Thanks. Can't wait to see how this plays out