Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Mac003 wrote:Frank. Great write up. If we get snow when do you think it might start

Thanks everyone.

Late Sunday, around Midnight.

Heaviest snow would fall between 4-11am

Frank_Wx wrote:

Mac003 wrote:Frank. Great write up. If we get snow when do you think it might start

Thanks everyone.

Late Sunday, around Midnight.

Heaviest snow would fall between 4-11am

Thanks. Can't wait to see how this plays out

Uhhhh anybody out there watching the 00z GFS? Pretty sure it's about to show a SECS for NYC.....

GFS takes the blue track!!

Actually, between green and blue

Yessir, a bit further north and a 5-8" snowfall from Philly to the lower Hudson Valley

rb924119 wrote:Yessir, a bit further north and a 5-8" snowfall from Philly to the lower Hudson Valley

Yup. Solid. Maybe even 6-10 with ratios

I'm telling you, Frank; I have a good feeling about this one. The western ridge is going to be the key, but it would appear that the GFS (at least right now) has come back to the idea of maintaining it. Interesting to note, it did not appear to me that there was any interaction at all between the two streams. It looked entirely northern-stream driven.

From my phone, the GFS snow map looks like a solid 8-12" for NYC metro.

It's just absolutely fascinating to me that this energy won't be onshore until tomorrow afternoon, won't be sampled until Saturday's 00z suite, and it will make it here within 36 hours. Too fast lmao

rb924119 wrote:I'm telling you, Frank; I have a good feeling about this one. The western ridge is going to be the key, but it would appear that the GFS (at least right now) has come back to the idea of maintaining it. Interesting to note, it did not appear to me that there was any interaction at all between the two streams. It looked entirely northern-stream driven.

It is northern stream driven, but you see that vort in SW US? A piece broke off this run and tried to phase into the northern stream energy. If that's a trend, we'll see this storm getting progressively stronger.

It's a fast storm. 8-12 hours.

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I'm telling you, Frank; I have a good feeling about this one. The western ridge is going to be the key, but it would appear that the GFS (at least right now) has come back to the idea of maintaining it. Interesting to note, it did not appear to me that there was any interaction at all between the two streams. It looked entirely northern-stream driven.

It is northern stream driven, but you see that vort in SW US? A piece broke off this run and tried to phase into the northern stream energy. If that's a trend, we'll see this storm getting progressively stronger.

I did see it, but it looked to me like it sheared out to the point that it was not even really present. We just have to be careful with that, though; the more interaction we see, the finer the line we have to walk on with this system. Too much, and we are back to an Apps runner, although quite frankly I don't see that as a viable track at all, regardless of intensity. We'd just end up watching the WAA win out because of a track too far north

Frank_Wx wrote:It's a fast storm. 8-12 hours.

That's how these hybrid SWFE/Miller A-type systems are; fast and furious. They put down a lot of moisture (Gulf access) in a short time (progressive flow). That screws a lot of mets over because often times they underestimate the WAA and heavy rates of precipitation associated with that.

And, not trying to get off-topic nor ahead of ourselves, but I think we are about to witness a massive Miller A hybrid for the end of next week by the GFS lol

Lee expecting it to be south....

Is Lee seeing something we are not?? lol

Dunnzoo wrote:Lee expecting it to be south....

Lee says purple track. Hmmmmm

Frank_Wx wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:Lee expecting it to be south....

Lee says purple track. Hmmmmm

Maybe going off of last nights/early todays runs?

Lee will need to hold off on that south talk looks like this wants to go north will see .

I'm gonna get to bed guys, I'll check back in tomorrow. Happy model watching and sweet dreams of waist-deep snow, baby!!!

This storm is crazy similar to the storm that last minute shifted north and slammed SCT south with 6-10" of snow the night of the Super Bowl into the following day last year.

GGEM says purple track, lol

Frank_Wx wrote:GGEM says purple track, lol

Well. I believe that's progress from the 12z run at least.

It is

Nothing is easy this year. might not know again until this storm is close.

00z gefs are a nice hit. .75 qpf. 00z ukie is very amplified. Might bring rain to the area. Model spread everywhere. Leaning in gfs and gefs for now.