Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

rb924119 wrote:From what I can tell so far, which is purely based on thicknesses at the moment, the UKMET looks to go to rain or a mix all the way to or damn near Albany, NY. I'm awaiting more data, though.

UKMET is north, so warm for coastal areas....

Like I said-DUMPS lmao:

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif

FWIW the 00z GFS Ensembles are actually slightly SOUTH of the Op.

00z GEFS are cooler than OP

Same time rb. Same time.

Here's snow based on 10:1:

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/EN/00/snosums/0024/GFS_00_enUS_SF_0066.png

Wow, what are the odds of that happening? lmfao

@Frank- Great discussion before, by the way, about the confluence and stuff. Got my gears spinning lol

Snow map will be out by morning. I'm going to enjoy my night for now. Goodnight

It looks to me that the GFS Op is in the warmest tercile (33%, or so) of its own ensemble, and while there are some H5 differences in depth, none of them appear to be trying to start a Miller-B. The main issues seem to be timing differences among the suite members.

Frank_Wx wrote:Snow map will be out by morning. I'm going to enjoy my night for now. Goodnight

Looking very forward to it, my friend! Ciao!!

UKMET, although the time resolution is too coarse to really know, looks like it works the warm nose in all the way into NEPA/lower Hudson Valley for a time (unknown), but then RAPIDLY crashes the temps by at least 6-8*C during and after the transfer to the coast with some serious CCB snows across the entire area.

For anybody else that's up, I'm off to bed. I'll check back in the morning and see what the EURO did. Night!!

rb924119 wrote:

aiannone wrote:CMC total snowfall with ratios. So now NAM, GFS, and CMC are on board for 6-8" here. Just when i thought we would be sunny here lol

GOOD LORD ALMIGHTY!!! Where's the dotted line?!! I'll sign in blood if needed lmfao

Livin On The Edge - Aerosmith

Great song, gonna be listening to alot next 48 hrs

I posted this on facebook in regards to the potential Sunday night-Monday storm:

Unlike the last storm, which was all snow with the question of how far west or east will the low pressure system go, this storm looks to have a snow/ice/rain issue with the question of how far north or south the low will go, which determines how far north the snow/mix line will go.

Here are two images from the last two Canadian model runs. The image on the left is hour 76 of the 1/30 12Z run valid for 11 AM Monday. In this run, the mixing line stops right over NYC and LI. The image on the right is hr 66 of the 1/31 0Z run valid for 1 PM Monday. In this run, the mixing line goes as far north as the Tappan Zee Bridge.

The areas north of where this mixing line stops will get all snow out of this (and those just north of it will likely get over a foot of snow from it). Those just south of the line will see a changeover but with really cold temperatures at the surface, it will likely be in the form of sleet and freezing rain. Further south of the line, you get a changeover to plain rain as surface temperatures look to warm above 32 degrees in those locations. But I do think that everyone in the NYC region will begin as snow Sunday evening and end as snow Monday evening.

Yes it is the Canadian model and yes I know not to put all the eggs into one model. Other models have the mixing line well north of where the Canadian has it while other models have it further south. This was just to give you an idea of what I think the wild card is in forecasting this storm. As we get closer, the short range models (with higher resolution) will provide us with more detailed analysis over how far north the line will go.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:NAM goes thru CNJ everyone goes to rain after a couple inches of snow, would stay the course of a winter of disappointment after disappointment.

ARE YOU KIDDING ME?? DON'T LOOK AT THIS PUTID MODEL. LAST NIGHT IT DID NOT EVEN SHOW THE SNOW SQUALLS TODAY FOR THE AREA. 0 INCHES OF SNOW WHILE WE ALL GOT 1-3. THEN 8 HOURS BEFORE THE BLIZZARD SHOW 24-30 INCHES OF SNOW FOR NYC. THIS MODEL NEEDS TO BE DECOMMISSIONED OR ELSE MORE PEOPLE WILL CONTINUING TO GROW DUMBER BY THE DAY

Im not taking it verbatim at all, just using it for its trends. It has had its moments in the past. Like I said, more concerned by having moving N past 3 runs and looking similar to Ukie.

I guess all the forum rules and threats Frank made us read dont apply to himself, degrading response IMO

I've known Tom and many others on here for a long time. None of what I said was directed toward him. This place is not for you if you can't handle joking around.

00z euro is all snow, about 10-15 inches

0Z EURO has 850 mb temps above freezing NYC south and east with surface temperatures below freezing in these location. Result: Ice storm.

Mike, that is incorrect. The 850 line is south of NYC. Surface is as well. Not mention thicknesses are very cold. Its all snow.

The low transferred to the coast sooner than the GGEM/GFS

LB3147 wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:NAM goes thru CNJ everyone goes to rain after a couple inches of snow, would stay the course of a winter of disappointment after disappointment.

ARE YOU KIDDING ME?? DON'T LOOK AT THIS PUTID MODEL. LAST NIGHT IT DID NOT EVEN SHOW THE SNOW SQUALLS TODAY FOR THE AREA. 0 INCHES OF SNOW WHILE WE ALL GOT 1-3. THEN 8 HOURS BEFORE THE BLIZZARD SHOW 24-30 INCHES OF SNOW FOR NYC. THIS MODEL NEEDS TO BE DECOMMISSIONED OR ELSE MORE PEOPLE WILL CONTINUING TO GROW DUMBER BY THE DAY

Im not taking it verbatim at all, just using it for its trends. It has had its moments in the past. Like I said, more concerned by having moving N past 3 runs and looking similar to Ukie.

I guess all the forum rules and threats Frank made us read  dont apply to himself, degrading response IMO

He's just pointing out how poor the model is, really can't rely on it, it needs to be fixed. ie it sucks. Everyone AGAIN is model hugging, did we not learn from the last storm? We need to look at all the data available as well as the current conditions and the model guidance to be able to forecast correctly.............jUst because one model shows a trend to the North does not mean it will actually trend that way..........LOOK AT ALL THE DATA, before forming an opinion.

Frank_Wx wrote:The low transferred to the coast sooner than the GGEM/GFS

It is about 15 miles further north, and Im still worried and not letting the EURO keep my hopes up in an all snow event when other models disagree.

Frank I was looking at this (hr 66)

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2015013100/nyc/ecmwf_t850_nyc_12.png

Math23x7 wrote:Frank I was looking at this (hr 66)

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2015013100/nyc/ecmwf_t850_nyc_12.png

That's still cold enough. Maybe not high-ratio cold, but when you have cold 925mb and surface you will have snow.

Frank_Wx wrote:

Math23x7 wrote:Frank I was looking at this (hr 66)

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2015013100/nyc/ecmwf_t850_nyc_12.png

That's still cold enough. Maybe not high-ratio cold, but when you have cold 925mb and surface you will have snow.

Oh ok. Still too close for comfort for me though.

This is a soundings type of storm. Really have to look at all the levels of the atmosphere and see if there is a warm wedge somewhere that could prevent precip. from falling as snow.

Joe Snow wrote:

LB3147 wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:NAM goes thru CNJ everyone goes to rain after a couple inches of snow, would stay the course of a winter of disappointment after disappointment.

ARE YOU KIDDING ME?? DON'T LOOK AT THIS PUTID MODEL. LAST NIGHT IT DID NOT EVEN SHOW THE SNOW SQUALLS TODAY FOR THE AREA. 0 INCHES OF SNOW WHILE WE ALL GOT 1-3. THEN 8 HOURS BEFORE THE BLIZZARD SHOW 24-30 INCHES OF SNOW FOR NYC. THIS MODEL NEEDS TO BE DECOMMISSIONED OR ELSE MORE PEOPLE WILL CONTINUING TO GROW DUMBER BY THE DAY

Im not taking it verbatim at all, just using it for its trends. It has had its moments in the past. Like I said, more concerned by having moving N past 3 runs and looking similar to Ukie.

I guess all the forum rules and threats Frank made us read  dont apply to himself, degrading response IMO

He's just pointing out how poor the model is, really can't rely on it, it needs to be fixed. ie it sucks. Everyone AGAIN is model hugging, did we not learn from the last storm? We need to look at all the data available as well as the current conditions and the model guidance to be able to forecast correctly.............jUst because one model shows a trend to the North does not mean it will actually trend that way..........LOOK AT ALL THE DATA, before forming an opinion.

One model... Are you serious.... Try all of todays data across the board.