UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again

There are going to be a couple of waves that make their way out of Canada and into the Northeast beginning Saturday. The bulk of the moisture is going to be constrained to areas well north of NYC into Upstate NY and New England. Wave 2, which is Sunday mid-afternoon into Monday, is when our area will get into some wintry precipitation. Temps. are going to start out above freezing due to the maturing surface low pressure system to our west. This means NYC Metro is likely to start as rain or freezing rain. Once the low matures and begins tracking east, south of us, it will help pull down some colder air and possibly change NYC over to snow. At this time, I am NOT confident NYC does see a changeover to snow. Right now, rain with some ice looks like the dominant precip. type of this storm. The cut-offs once again will be sharp and another south shift of just 15-20 miles of the surface low would put NYC/NNJ/CNJ back into some accumulating snowfalls.

Here is my 1st call map:



The set-up with this system is convoluted in the sense that H5 energy is all over the place. The western ridge is collapsing so we go from a nice looking trough to a flat one. Hence why the surface low never gets below 1000mb and travels due east. There is a chance it strengthens off the coast but I think it will mostly benefit southern New England.

A final map will be released tomorrow night. I do feel there is still room for this system to shift further south which would put NYC in a solid 2-4" snowfall. We'll see how this trends as the day goes on. N&W should do very well with this storm.

If need be I will have an ice map out tomorrow night as well. 00z GFS does bring in some ice

50 miles again. SOB! Hope we get "our" storm next week. Or week after.

Good call at this stage with what is being modelled. I THINK NNJ sees 3-6" where I am at and the 4-8"may need to be moved south by about 15-20 miles. We'll see

amugs wrote:Good call at this stage with what is being modelled. I THINK NNJ sees 3-6" where I am at and the 4-8"may need to be moved south by about 15-20 miles. We'll see

I can see that happening too. Will make adjustments at final call if need be. I want to see more support

Do you see ice being a major or minor issues for the surrounding suburbs of NYC, ie. my area, this monday thing is getting groundhog dayish lol

Boston jackpots over everyone.....

Nice map Frank. Thanks. Man this sucks! I detest Boston and everything about them. 60+ inches of snow in under 2 weeks. 1 point... sroc4 and I have mentioned this before. You have 8-12+ all the way down to the coast of Ct. and 15 miles south the N. shore of LI you have a c-2". You might be right but man what a gradient!

I decided yesterday to step away from the weather to spend some time with my family.  Im glad I did. But this morning I am back and here is my first call map.  First take a look at this link:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-92.42,51.85,1024

Pay particular attention to the trough spinning over the Alaskan/Canadian boarder.  It is in a crappy location.  The result is to increase heights in western Canada which in turn forces the PV to sit in a position NE of the Hudson Bay.   This essentially forces the Acrtic boundary to  initially set up over or maybe just S of LI for Sat and Sunday which leads to very low QPF amounts and an initial increase in surface and mid layer temps associated with the first wave and early in the second wave.  But also look to the NW Atlantic.  There is a decent looking E based -NAO pushing towards Greenland.  The trough over the Alaskan/Canadian Boarder is forecast to drift SW then West and end up just south of the Western Aleutian Islands over the next 24-48hrs.  At the same time an ULL is forecast to develop to the south off the West coast near the US/Canadian border that will cause a brief spike in the western ridge.  This same ULL/Trough feature off th west coast has a fairly potent 250mb jet streak on its heals which will move it onshore rather quickly and cause the ridge to buckle rather quickly.  For me there is a window here when the trough over Alaska backs up to the west which will allow the PV to drift back west and maybe south a bit which will allow the arctic air to press a little further south as we go into Early Monday morning when compared to what is modeled.  I think this means we will see totals slowly shift south.  

Ice will be a concern in the areas I have outlined.  How much or how little will prob need to be ironed out as a nowcast due to the uncertainty of just how far south the frontal boundary actually makes it and the timing of that with the developing main LP to our W on Monday.  Here is the NWS Upton snow totals yesterday and then again this morning followed by my first call map.  As you can see with todays NWS map there are some pretty sharp cuttoffs. 4-6" to <1" in 10miles..yikes! They are def picking up on the south trend but I think they continue to correct to what my map shows as we go into tomorrow and Monday.  Again this is a first call map.  This may change.  
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Excellent Doc. Sharp cutoffs are right,Man.

I checked NWS for my old town Mahwah and they mention little snow while 25 miles north where I am now they have 4 to 6.Still, the WSW moved south from way upstate NY to now include Orange County.The march south continues.Let's see during nowcast Sunday night and Monday if that analysis above plays out and the heavier snow line drifts south.

Another interesting nowcast situation!

Anyhoo, another very cold week ahead of this storm! When the day comes it hits 50 degrees, we will be in shorts and tee shirts,LOL!

Looks like this initial wave is slightly stronger than modeled, judging by the current radar.

Yikes PINK! Yeah its over the water but shows how intense they feel the frz might be, the placement like sroc said is pretty impossible to predict so the blue could easily be over NYC or even the pink. Or we trend less ice and more snow, we will see today but that map is concerning to say the least! Now they have much of MA northern CT in 14-18 wow im jelous!

Upton has WSW all the way down to just north of the coast but this is our dreaded and dangerous HWO.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A LONG DURATION WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS LIKELY FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
THE REGION COULD HAVE FREEZING RAIN ALONG WITH MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THAT WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

Don't be jealous unless it actually happens. Still several possibilities on the table here. I'm in the 4-6 and I still feel I could see 10 inches or more ice and less than 4 inches . It will be an interesting as always.

That would be horrible if that verifies. Let's hope we see #coldtrend rear its head more than the north trend has of late lol

true cp.

Well so much for that ahahaha SREFs just came in torching again -_-

I don't believe them though; there is only one member that is has the current precipitation shield modeled correctly, every other member is wayyyyyy far off (according to the radar).

Here's the postage stamps and mean (bottom right) for right now:
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_9z/f06.gif

Note how the only member that has the current precipitation shield modeled well is the second one in from the right in the middle row.

Here's the QPF map. Take a look lol

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PCNTOTNE_9z/f87.gif

Thank you for the wonderful maps and write ups they are always so informative..but I am so disappointed..when we moved to Hazlet..to get the best of both worlds...to live on the water for us to boat all summer long...I still had hope that we would be close enough to Northern Jersey 1-to see family within the hour 2-still be able to satisfy the snow weenie in me....it is not panning out very well this year

Wow, 12z Not A Model coming in way south from 00z run.

Looks very similar to the 00z EURO, although with a lot less precipitation.

I also think this thing is coming more south and will be colder than forecast its going to be very interesting!

The 12z which model rb?

Frank_Wx wrote:The 12z which model rb?

Heyyyyyyyy WAIT A MINUTEEEEEE that's not what I typed!!! LMAO Did you change that??