Re: UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again

by **rb924119** Sat Feb 07, 2015 3:37 pm

The Not A Model is still ridiculously dry for this system. Idk why.

by **snow247** Sat Feb 07, 2015 3:42 pm

rb924119 wrote:The Not A Model is still ridiculously dry for this system. Idk why.

Yea looks like 1-2 inches south of nyc and only 2-4 from nyc north up to around albany. lol.

by **aiannone** Sat Feb 07, 2015 3:46 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
aiannone wrote:YAY

What town in that map is your college near Alex?

Just north of St. Johnsbury.

by **aiannone** Sat Feb 07, 2015 3:46 pm

18z Not A Model
UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 5 Usa_as16

by Guest Sat Feb 07, 2015 3:49 pm

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE LAST 24 HOURS OF NORTH/COLDER TREND? DONE IN ONE FREAKIN RUN????

by **snow247** Sat Feb 07, 2015 3:49 pm

aiannone wrote:18z Not A Model

According to that, it's a complete miss for most of us in terms of snow.

But who cares what it says, it's only the..... you know.

by **aiannone** Sat Feb 07, 2015 3:49 pm

Upton went colder.....OUCH
UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 5 Stormt16

UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 5 Stormt17

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Feb 07, 2015 3:57 pm

aiannone wrote:Upton went colder.....OUCH

Yawn Yawn YAWWWWN. Even with the last storm, we had the biggest potential I've seen in 5 years to see big ice accretions and it just does not come to fruition, at least here in the city. I am officially white flagging this event. Boston = Bullseye. I am more excited about Thursday's light snow and the BES next weekend. What a Face

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Feb 07, 2015 3:57 pm

aiannone wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
aiannone wrote:YAY

What town in that map is your college near Alex?

Just north of St. Johnsbury.

Wow you are up there. That's a whole different world weather wise.

by **sroc4** Sat Feb 07, 2015 3:58 pm

aiannone wrote:Upton went colder.....OUCH

Well well well. This is def at the now cast time guys. Look at the HRRR tomorrow night. It has done a great job with the last few events inside 18hrs

by **jimv45** Sat Feb 07, 2015 4:08 pm

Winter storm warning for duthess county 8 to 16 expected

by **aiannone** Sat Feb 07, 2015 4:16 pm

NWS Upton:
THE FORECAST DILEMMA MUCH LIKE IT WAS NEARLY A WEEK AGO IS WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AND PTYPE. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER WITH THE INTERIOR LOOKING LIKE A MAINLY SNOW EVENT...WHILE COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE A A MIX OF SNOW AND ICE WITH A SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCRETION. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES...PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME IS TO MAINTAIN THE WINTER STORM WATCH INLAND AND ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS AT THE COAST WITH THE HWO. IN ADDITION...QPF AMOUNTS LOOK MARGINAL FOR WARNING CRITERIA. FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS INLAND MAY APPROACH 6 INCHES...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES AT THE COAST AND UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE.

by **docstox12** Sat Feb 07, 2015 4:19 pm

Trended colder here. Still a watch but anywhere between 4 to 10 inches of snow.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Feb 07, 2015 4:24 pm

sroc4 wrote:
aiannone wrote:Upton went colder.....OUCH

Well well well. This is def at the now cast time guys. Look at the HRRR tomorrow night. It has done a great job with the last few events inside 18hrs

Loving the trend here.

I was just thinking a minute ago, no matter what happens this storm I'm not gonna let it bother me. I've got almost two feet of snow on the ground, it's gray, cloudy, and beautiful right now just like winter is suppose to be, so why not be content with what I have. Two minutes later Alex posts the upgraded map. It's the power of positive thinking at work. Scroo the Not A Model, I don't think any weather service even pays attention to it anymore.

by **sroc4** Sat Feb 07, 2015 4:30 pm

Agreed

by **docstox12** Sat Feb 07, 2015 4:31 pm

Exactly CP! THIS is winter.There was a good burst of heavy snow to freshen up the snowpack, slate grey skies, cold temp.Forecast trends going our way.Could be on our way to 6 to 8 inches here.

No complaints from me!

by **snow247** Sat Feb 07, 2015 4:46 pm

GFS is further south so far.

by **snow247** Sat Feb 07, 2015 4:54 pm

GFS looks good.

by **aiannone** Sat Feb 07, 2015 4:55 pm

18z GFS Snow Map
UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 5 Usa_as17

by **snow247** Sat Feb 07, 2015 4:59 pm

aiannone wrote:18z GFS Snow Map

So close for the city to cash in!

by Guest Sat Feb 07, 2015 5:14 pm

Sooooooo close. Sitting on the 5-8/8-12 line. Hoping for a 20 mile shift south or maybe 2 degrees colder than predicted.

by **lglickman1** Sat Feb 07, 2015 5:25 pm

So close yet so far away, we'll what happens

by **jmanley32** Sat Feb 07, 2015 5:46 pm

I could see a this past monday storm again, I got 10 inches just biordering the bronx NY. We were supposed at this time out get far less. I will take that in a heartbeat, even 6 is better than nothing, NWS of 2-3 IMO is too low.

by **rb924119** Sat Feb 07, 2015 6:05 pm

18z RGEM is way colder. Keeps the 0*C at 850 hPa basically along I-80 Very Happy

#COLDTREND

by **rb924119** Sat Feb 07, 2015 6:07 pm

12z:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015020712/rgem_T850_neus_16.png

18z:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015020718/rgem_T850_neus_14.png

by **aiannone** Sat Feb 07, 2015 6:08 pm

18z RGEM. Still more snow after this, especially over NE....
UPDATE #2: 1st Call Snow Map, N&W Wins Again - Page 5 Rgem_s10

by **rb924119** Sat Feb 07, 2015 6:11 pm

aiannone wrote:18z RGEM. Still more snow after this, especially over NE....

Yeah, there is still like literally half of the event yet to go after this run lmao

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