Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla?

God help us

Current HRRR @ 17z 2-16-15
Thoughts?

Joe Snow wrote:Current HRRR @ 17z 2-16-15
Thoughts?

A lot of virga on the northern end lol

00z GFS doesn't look much different than 12z at H5...

I told y'all (in touch with my southern 'stream' ;-) -- Winter Weather Advisory (2-4, 3-6) for NYC and nothing more. T'is not our storm. We've got more potential on the horizon.

00z GFS looking much better through hour 0

lol, just kidding.

SoulSingMG wrote:I told y'all (in touch with my southern 'stream' ;-) -- Winter Weather Advisory (2-4, 3-6) for NYC and nothing more. T'is not our storm. We've got more potential on the horizon.

That's a solid storm and what most have been expecting. Anything more than 4 inches is bonus.

Frank_Wx wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:I told y'all (in touch with my southern 'stream' ;-) -- Winter Weather Advisory (2-4, 3-6) for NYC and nothing more. T'is not our storm. We've got more potential on the horizon.

That's a solid storm and what most have been expecting. Anything more than 4 inches is bonus.

It's not a Godzilla.

00z GFS

If I get 4-6 where I am at, I will be happy. Everyone these days only wants the 12" plus storm. We don't get a whole lot of those in this area. It happens and when it does it is awesome, but for many years if I got 6" of snow, I considered it a big storm. I suppose there is an inappropriate joke to be made here but I'll leave it alone.

Well good night, everybody!! I'll check back in the morning. Time for this boy to get some sleep lol Good luck, y'all!!

Total QPF?

This is the type of set-up that models should NOT be struggling with. RGEM/GFS de-amplifying the short wave in the Midwest is a concern. This is the risk you get when there is no northern stream involvement. The air mass over us is also very cold. Not as excited about this event as I was this morning, but a nice light accumulation is still likely.

NOOOOOOOOOOOO

Godzilla angry? Haha. That better not be me in his hand. Lets make it sroc

Huge ice storm thru the MAISON Dixon though

So cool Joe lol

Joe Snow wrote:



NOOOOOOOOOOOO

Haha that's amazing

Frank_Wx wrote:This is the type of set-up that models should NOT be struggling with. RGEM/GFS de-amplifying the short wave in the Midwest is a concern. This is the risk you get when there is no northern stream involvement. The air mass over us is also very cold. Not as excited about this event as I was this morning, but a nice light accumulation is still likely.

I just do not get the models struggling even with the simplest systems, I won't be surprised if this over preforms for some crazy reason..........

Frank I was reading somewhere that a lot of times with these miller A type of storms the model's under do the precip?

Current RADAR with Vapor..........

Frank are you still thinking there will be as much snow in AC?

Yschiff wrote:Frank I was reading somewhere that a lot of times with these miller A type of storms the model's under do the precip?

This is not Miller A. We should clear this up now. In my opinion, it is more of a SWFE (southwest flow event). Miller A's usually have phasing involved with the northern branch. This is just a southern stream driven system from a piece of energy that ejected out of the Baja upper low in the SW CONUS. While it does have Gulf moisture to work with, it's also moving into an arctic air mass. The precip shield should be expansive but how about the precip rates? That is what may hold down accumulations.

sabamfa wrote:Frank are you still thinking there will be as much snow in AC?

Yes, at least 4-6" for them. No doubt.

Joe Snow wrote:


Current RADAR with Vapor..........

Starting to come together. And still looks far enough north to me that it shouldn't 'miss' (not totally of course) us to the south. On the other hand, it is fast moving, and the air so dry that I do think big totals will be tough to come by if you're not in the heaviest bands.

Thanks Frank I can really understand about SWFE Am I good for 3+