Impact Map / Observations Thread - Tuesday Snow&Ice Event

[Frank_Wx]

A piece of upper level energy is going to cut into the Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and partially phase with the PV to spawn a surface low. Cold air will be in place over the northeast once the storm arrives so this will start as wintry precipitation for the majority of the area until the warm front gets here and changes us all to rain. As the surface low tracks into eastern Canada, a cold front is going to settle over the east coast and slow down just in time for a mid-level trough to catch up to it. This will be a second wave to worry about Wednesday evening into Thursday which could produce hefty snow amounts for places still unknown at this time. Moral of the story: Tuesday-Thursday will be wild.

Here is a snow/ice map for the event beginning tomorrow afternoon. 1st call snow map for the Wednesday night wave will be released tomorrow morning (map says tomorrow afternoon but I should have it out by morning).

[snow247]

Do you think some of us northern guys will see some sleet accumulation?

Btw, those last two sentences in the first paragraph got me instantly excited!

I really like your map too.

[Frank_Wx]

Yea, could be less then half an inch of sleet as well. Map only highlights snow and freezing rain

[weatherwatchermom]

Frank my son's 4th grade concert is tom at 6 do you think weather will impact it..(grandparents supposed to drive down from Mt Arlington)or is this a later event

[Frank_Wx]

Frank my son's 4th grade concert is tom at 6 do you think weather will impact it..(grandparents supposed to drive down from Mt Arlington)or is this a later event

I have the storm beginning sometime between 3-5pm. So yes, you and they will be impacted. I suggest have grandparents stay home and you record it

[Fededle22]

It looks as though tomorrow night won't be too bad for my area. Inch or two of snow at best with just a bit of ice. Nothing major. However that storm for Thursday is looking interesting.

[jmanley32]

Nice map, NWS has 2-3 down to me but I will go by you, WWA also has 2-4 for me, but does not show nearly as much ice as you show which is more of a concern.

[weatherwatchermom]

sorry I looked straight at that map and did not see the start time...oops yes I will have to record it!!

[Dunnzoo]

sorry I looked straight at that map and did not see the start time...oops  yes I will have to record it!!

Or have them come early for a sleepover! 

[weatherwatchermom]

sorry I looked straight at that map and did not see the start time...oops  yes I will have to record it!!

Or have them come early for a sleepover! 

Thanks...good idea..but Dad would not stay....I will just have to record it.

[snow247]

00z NAM has 3"-6" for doc, CP, and I for tomorrow PM. 2"-4"/1"-3" for the NYC metro area. Nice.

[amugs]

I think we sneak 3" out of this tomorrow night up here in NNJ and more in the LHV. Sleet fest as well for I 80 corridor and even me up here in NNJ.

[Frank_Wx]

GEM LAM really cut back on snow amounts



Kinda matches my map now. So I'll probably stick with mine.

[snow247]

Looks like places even just north of NYC barely get any rain from this, only snow/sleet.

[Frank_Wx]

Looks like places north of NYC barely get any rain from this.

Not true. I think even they see a period of rain.

00z RGEM snow map

[snow247]

Hearing the GGEM is very frozen for this.

[algae888]

nws disco...
SNOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEFORE EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO PLAIN
RAIN. THIS PROGRESSION OCCURS SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWER THAN
WHAT FORECAST MODELS SHOW.
maybe a little extra snow tonight? more likely ice.

[snow247]

Possible early school closings etc. today? Precip always seems to come in earlier than modeled.

[snow247]

6z GFS shows 5" or 6" for areas in NWNJ and the LHV.

3"-4" for the NYC metro.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Possible early school closings etc. today? Precip always seems to come in earlier than modeled.

Are you a teacher or student snow?

[snow247]

Possible early school closings etc. today? Precip always seems to come in earlier than modeled.

Are you a teacher or student snow?

Student but I'm home today, was asking because family members work until 5.

[snow247]

Looks like snow is already getting into central PA according to radar, could be virga though.

Already getting cloudy here after like 15 minutes of sun.

[Yschiff]

Gfs 6z snow totals for first event
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015030306&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=024

[Frank_Wx]

I don't have time for a second map, but would like to implement these changes to it:

-2 to 4 inches now to encompass all of NNJ and just north of NYC

-NYC Metro to CNJ 1-3 inches (includes northeast NJ and LI)  

-NEPA into lower NY 3 to 5 inches

-Coastal and southern NJ Coating to 2 inches

[snow247]

I don't have time for a second map, but would like to implement these changes to it:

-2 to 4 inches now to encompass all of NNJ and just north of NYC

-NYC Metro to CNJ 1-3 inches (includes northeast NJ and LI)  

-NEPA into lower NY 3 to 5 inches

-Coastal and southern NJ Coating to 2 inches

Very nice, thanks for the update, Frank.

[Sponsored content]