Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

[amugs]

bring it on here. hold baby hold!!

[amugs]

GEFS say stout northeast trough going forward and a stout block showing up as well. Nred this to stay on the next few runs fir validity.

[algae888]

Today's NAO and AO continues to show them both going negative within the next two weeks after a spike these next several days. the PNA also looks to be heading positive at the same time can't post the charts I'm on my cell but things could get interesting towards the end of the month

[algae888]

If the guidance is correct there will be a significant drop in both teleconnections the AO would go from a + 5 to a -1 and tha NAO from +2 to -2. When both teleconnections go wild like this usually a good sign for a significant storm. we'll see

[Frank_Wx]

Reading around the weather community I'm surprised by how many people are grasping for straws early in the season. When I sit back and look at long range models, I think to myself everything is going as planned. There's no surprises: November and likely the 1st half of December will be warm with periods of transient cold shots.



Let's start with the 00z EPS. Here we are in the 10-12 day range looking at H5 height anomalies. Hey look! A -NAO. Some people are getting excited seeing this feature but I'll tell you why you should temper expectations. Let's zoom out.



First off, this is not a look that would support a cross polar flow. In order to transport cold air from Siberia or the Arctic into the eastern CONUS, those negative heights in western NA need to be replaced by positive heights. As the Arctic region warms, the Polar Jet shifts south which helps to displace the Arctic air.

We're not seeing that anytime soon. It's clear the absence of a GOA low and unfavorable setup with the PV and ridging in Asia will continue bringing milder weather to our area. The wind flow across the northern Pacific from Western U.S. to Japan looks zonal. Once the GOA low is established, that will allow ridging to develop over the EPO/PNA areas and bring cooler air masses to our area.



Additionally, the MJO is in phase 3 and looks to stay there for at least the next 7-10 days. Someone had mentioned it - and they're right - the 850mb OLR anomalies have not been matching well with the MJO. The correlation looks more accurate using 200mb zonal winds.

I think some people see a -NAO and get too excited. You have to see how other upper air anomalies are situated. The Pacific is a mess with no amplification. All the ridging is found over Asia. You can argue the -NAO ridge and Asian ridge are the reasons why the PV and the subsequent low heights are found on the other side of the continent.

There's still a long way to go. Cold shots will come but they'll be transient in nature. This was to be expected. In Italian there is a saying "piano piano si va lotano." Translation: slowly, slowly one goes far. If you let the winter pattern take its time to establish itself, we'll reap the benefits later on.

[docstox12]

Frank's discussion fits with the back ended winter expected.

[billg315]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/11/07/record-siberian-snow-could-bode-ill-northeast/75224060/
We shall see. This winter seems like a pretty complex one to nail down (not that long range seasonal forecasts are ever particularly easy).

[sroc4]

Larry Cosgroves spidey senses tingling as well for later this month and early Dec for somewhat of a pattern change.


Despite the very mild start to November, recent changes in computer model predictions are setting the stage for intriguing shifts in the general storm track and temperature pattern across North America. There are, of course, other factors which have stirred a buzz of sorts in the weather community concerning late fall and winter possibilities. The expansive Siberian snow cover has gotten attention, as has the prevailing warmth across the northern and eastern Pacific Ocean. Still, many are shouting the virtues of a 1997-98 redux. This despite critical differences in storm track and moisture fetch placement.

As we move through the next three weeks, it seems probable that some sort of -AO/-NAO ridge complex will take shape. A positive 500MB height anomaly in that position would likely mean much colder temperatures east of the Continental Divide, with the interior West trending drier and a bit milder over time. I am still doubtful that the Eastern Seaboard sees any important snowfall before the New Year. If the analog forecasts are correct, and blended with numerical model results, then the cyclogenesis over Texas after November 15 would likely be followed by a trajectory along or just left of the Gulf and Atlantic shorelines. That of course speaks of rainfall and not the white stuff.

But obviously, there is a real chance here for a colder direction between the Rocky Mountains and Appalachia in the second half of the month. The pattern speaks of volatility, and it seems probable that the overly-warm CFS outlook may well be correct about the Midwest and East locations being far above seasonal averages in December. However, there is still some time before widespread warming will resume. My suspicion is that we continue to see high-profile storms from the Mexican border into the East Coast, and perhaps more than two weeks of colder values in a bracket from the High Plains through the entire Mississippi River watershed.

[Frank_Wx]

Not as strong as the late October WWB, but westerlies showing up again between 150E and 120W.

[Frank_Wx]

If these type of observations with our upper level winds over the Tropical Pacific persist, we're going to see a Hybrid El Nino take shape for this winter. 200mb zonal winds show strong easterlies and divergence between 120W and 180.

[jmanley32]

Okay what in the world does a hybrid elnino mean for us?

[Frank_Wx]

Okay what in the world does a hybrid elnino mean for us?

A fairly potent sub tropical jet that's going to make our winter highly interesting. Depends on how the EPO/AO/NAO play out. Need all 3 on our side.

[chief7]

Did anyone hear anything about the euro seasonal?

[amugs]

2009 Similarity?? Holy MOG it is!!
Progression of 2009 that lead up to the blocking:
NOV 1-8


NOV 11-16....ridging began to develop in east U.S. & Canada



NOV 16-20...a system gets up underneath the ridge



NOV 21-24...-NAO blocking begins to take shape, still far south & shunts trough west (sounds familiar)



NOV 25-30...-NAO blocking intensifies around Davis Strait & ridging forms in the west



Blocking relaxed the 1st 10 days of DEC while strong Alaskan ridge provided cold:

DEC 1-10


pattern somewhat relaxes then BABOOM!!!!!Then around mid DEC epic AO began to tank also & -NAO blocking begin to return in earnest:



We know how it only intensified in JAN/FEB/

That was the progression. Not saying that will happen at all, but the similarities in the early NOV pattern & predicted progression around mid-month are interesting. I'm sure it doesn't mean we have a 2009-10 winter but it could be showing a similar atmospheric response that leads to some blocking. Here's where we're at:



NOTE...that this is very similar to the 1st half of NOV pattern in 2009.


Here's what the Euro Ensemble mean is showing where we're going. In a few days blocking begins to form & intensifies around the DAVIS Strait. Ridging continues in the east & keeps trough shunted to the west...just how 2009 blocking began:



As head into the week before Thanksgiving Atlantic blocking is stronger, but still far enough south that trough is still shunted west, but notice it's progressing east. Also note the rise in heights in the NW as PNA begins to shift towards positive:



Yep...-AO & -NAO. Although this El Nino is stronger & very different than 2009-10....it's amazing to see the similarities of the progression of all the above. Don't no where we go from here, but I love the pattern similarities.

Oh and Wed night Jim Witt comes to give his Winter forecast and calendar that he is 80% correct with observation the years - the dates he calls for storms - I put a good chunk of change on his forecast. His analogs are frickin amazing - from the 1700 and 1800's to draw some of his analogs.

SROC took a page from your book on this write up : DISCUSS PEEPS

[amugs]

Euros seasonal out today ? Anyone hear or post - let me see if I can swindle some from another group of weather

[amugs]

AO looking to tank



NAO saying I will join you



PNA saying Nuetral

[Frank_Wx]

The latest EURO seasonal for December and January is shown below. For December, the 500 mb setup looks similar to what we've seen this November - positive height anomalies, or above normal temps, across the northern tier of the country. 

By January, the H5 ridge retrogrades west and the core of the positive height anomalies build into western U.S. and Canada. As highlighted in my winter outlook, I expect this retrogression to continue into February which is when I think the coldest and snowiest time period will be for the east coast.

[Frank_Wx]

2009 Similarity?? Holy MOG it is!!
Progression of 2009 that lead up to the blocking:
NOV 1-8


NOV 11-16....ridging began to develop in east U.S. & Canada



NOV 16-20...a system gets up underneath the ridge



NOV 21-24...-NAO blocking begins to take shape, still far south & shunts trough west (sounds familiar)



NOV 25-30...-NAO blocking intensifies around Davis Strait & ridging forms in the west



Blocking relaxed the 1st 10 days of DEC while strong Alaskan ridge provided cold:

DEC 1-10


pattern somewhat relaxes then BABOOM!!!!!Then around mid DEC epic AO began to tank also & -NAO blocking begin to return in earnest:



We know how it only intensified in JAN/FEB/

That was the progression.  Not saying that will happen at all, but the similarities in the early NOV pattern & predicted progression around mid-month are interesting. I'm sure it doesn't mean we have a 2009-10 winter but it could be showing a similar atmospheric response that leads to some blocking. Here's where we're at:



NOTE...that this is very similar to the 1st half of NOV pattern in 2009.


Here's what the Euro Ensemble mean is showing where we're going. In a few days blocking begins to form & intensifies around the DAVIS Strait.  Ridging continues in the east & keeps trough shunted to the west...just how 2009 blocking began:



As head into the week before Thanksgiving Atlantic blocking is stronger, but still far enough south that trough is still shunted west, but notice it's progressing east.  Also note the rise in heights in the NW as PNA begins to shift towards positive:



Yep...-AO & -NAO.  Although this El Nino is stronger & very different than 2009-10....it's amazing to see the similarities of the progression of all the above.  Don't no where we go from here, but I love the pattern similarities.

Oh and Wed night Jim Witt comes to give his Winter forecast and calendar that he is 80% correct with observation the years - the dates he calls for storms - I put a good chunk of change on his forecast. His analogs are frickin amazing - from the 1700 and 1800's to draw some of his analogs.

SROC took a page from your book on this write up : DISCUSS PEEPS

This is actually very interesting. Too bad El Nino right now is closer to 1997 than it is 2009. However, how the blocking progressed that year - also during an inactive phase of the sun - is similar so far. Awesome post.

[Frank_Wx]

2015 ONI after ASO is trimester is warmer than 1997. Woah. 

[algae888]

2015 ONI after ASO is trimester is warmer than 1997. Woah. 

amazing frank however this years el-nino started early and is close to it's peak where as 1997 was still warming well into winter. pacific is a hot tub right now. will be interesting to see how this plays out. also to note that the next several storms after Tuesdays coastal will be cutters and they should provide significant snow cover over northern plains and western and central Canada. everything seems to be going as planned so far.

[amugs]

Thanks Frank. Whoa above 2*C darn. We need this set up as u mentioned in 2009 and a -epo to help out. Looks like mid Jan/ Feb best time like this past wintwr and we'll need good timing for snow before then. Uncharted waters. Going to be interesting to see what the other for casting told say. Been reading that the Aussies have the best modeling of nino and their numbers come out monday.

The progression looks interesting going forward.

[Dunnzoo]

I'm going to Daytona in February, husband asks, "Should we fly?" I say, hell no! Snow grounds planes for days, if we drive we might only be delayed a little while, or leave early! Lol Although I might miss some fun!

[amugs]

Euro seasonal was nice...awesome Aleutian low placement and good area of peak ridging in W Canada.J- M looks good and gets better as we progress through that timeframe. Euro has not changed I'm since June July with this time frame, boot a Dec and get ready for a great ride?

[amugs]

JB saying that this winter Euro set up is analoged to 1940-41 - here is the map  



Look at the NAO Block - WOOO HOOOOOOOO!!





Here is DEC - matches with Euro and what to expect



Now for J-M =- BAZINGA!!!!!

[chief7]

and what was the winter like around here in 1940/41?

[sroc4]

and what was the winter like around here  in 1940/41?

Refer to the last map in Mugsy's post right above yours to answer your question.

[Math23x7]

and what was the winter like around here  in 1940/41?

During the 1940-41 snow season, NYC got 39" of snow, above normal.

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