Re: December 2015 Observations & Discussions

by **aiannone** Sun Dec 06, 2015 7:28 pm

Had a forecasted high of 48 in Lyndonville, VT today, but the freezing fog held on all day long and we never made it above 31.2*. Currently 28.5 and everything is freezing up again. Looks like a mini ice storm when you look at the accumulated moisture that froze on the trees.

by **docstox12** Sun Dec 06, 2015 7:34 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Low of 22.4 this morning.

I hope everyone outside my area survived the dangerous frost. We lost 4 people in my neighborhood, it seeped through their roofs when it melted this morning and strangled them. If only they had taken the NWS warning seriously last night. The news media is all over this area now, they're reporting this as workplace violence, but those of us that live here know better.

NWS just issued a dangerous breeze warning this afternoon, winds 10-15 mph, everyone please stay inside, don't add to the body count.

Friggin' off the chart hilarious!!!!!!!

by **docstox12** Sun Dec 06, 2015 7:37 pm

32.1, 90% 30.16 F

Rita and I went to Hoboken from Monroe via rail and walked around town with my Nephew and his wife.Mild and sunny and it was a lot of fun.

by **sroc4** Sun Dec 06, 2015 9:20 pm

docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Low of 22.4 this morning.

I hope everyone outside my area survived the dangerous frost. We lost 4 people in my neighborhood, it seeped through their roofs when it melted this morning and strangled them. If only they had taken the NWS warning seriously last night. The news media is all over this area now, they're reporting this as workplace violence, but those of us that live here know better.

NWS just issued a dangerous breeze warning this afternoon, winds 10-15 mph, everyone please stay inside, don't add to the body count.

Friggin' off the chart hilarious!!!!!!!

Omg CP. that is seriously hilarious

by **amugs** Sun Dec 06, 2015 10:30 pm

sroc4 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Low of 22.4 this morning.

I hope everyone outside my area survived the dangerous frost. We lost 4 people in my neighborhood, it seeped through their roofs when it melted this morning and strangled them. If only they had taken the NWS warning seriously last night. The news media is all over this area now, they're reporting this as workplace violence, but those of us that live here know better.

NWS just issued a dangerous breeze warning this afternoon, winds 10-15 mph, everyone please stay inside, don't add to the body count.

Friggin' off the chart hilarious!!!!!!!

Omg CP. that is seriously hilarious

LMAO!!!!!!!!

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 07, 2015 6:02 pm

Interesting the 18z gfs instead of huge strong cutter develops a big coastal that deepens rapidly but just after passes us still several inches rain but no wind threat like euro shows. Two very different senarios.

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 07, 2015 11:33 pm

00z gfs more in line with 12z euro bUT fu ether west. Does it have the 500 close off cuz now it shoes 60 to 80 kt 850 mb winds right over us as passes through its also about 980mb over gl. Granted not close as euro but big changes back and forth . One thing for sure have ass rain.

by **sroc4** Tue Dec 08, 2015 9:44 am

Stratospheric vortex over the NP.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-91.06,85.17,430

by **jmanley32** Tue Dec 08, 2015 8:32 pm

Wow 18z gfs Monday huge sub 980mb cutter believe closed has very high winds for the area and gfs map has snow! A few inches is it possible a storm that strong could bring in some back side snow? Def Has Trended To Euro And IMO We See A Wind EVE T With Precip Monday But How Much It's Been Very Drastic From Run To run.

by **jmanley32** Tue Dec 08, 2015 8:35 pm

To be exact has central pressure over central gl of 972mb.

by **amugs** Tue Dec 08, 2015 11:14 pm

30* at 11pm here in H'dale frigging cold out there.
NWS may have to issue a cold advisory in this pattern.

@jman that cutter is going to help with out pattern going forward, strong cutters usually do at this time of year. Let's hope it trends even stronger and just thrashes this bootleg crapstatic pattern we are in. Booyaahhhh!!!

by **jmanley32** Tue Dec 08, 2015 11:37 pm

Well that would make us all happy then and me double happy as we get the pattern change and I get a rippin wind storm , heh.

by **jmanley32** Tue Dec 08, 2015 11:37 pm

amugs wrote:30* at 11pm here in H'dale digging cold out there.
NWS may have to issue a cold advisory in this pattern.

@jman that cutter is going to help with out pattern going firward, strong cutters usually do at this time of year. Let's hope is trends even stronger and just thrashes this bootleg crapstatic pattern we are in. Booyaahhhh!!!

A cold disaster warning, stay inside as you may get a chills and need coffee.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Dec 09, 2015 5:49 am

Yawn. 34 degrees.

by **Dunnzoo** Wed Dec 09, 2015 7:35 am

25° was my low overnight, more frosted cars. Amazing the temp swings we are having.

by **amugs** Wed Dec 09, 2015 7:42 am

Dunnzoo wrote:25° was my low overnight, more frosted cars. Amazing the temp swings we are having.

25* with patchy frost sista!!

by **amugs** Wed Dec 09, 2015 8:17 am

Whoever guessed in the 65* range is going to score some points in Francis's Winter Competition for this weekend - Sunday - shorts and t-shirt weather!

by **jmanley32** Wed Dec 09, 2015 8:48 am

amugs wrote:30* at 11pm here in H'dale frigging cold out there.
NWS may have to issue a cold advisory in this pattern.

@jman that cutter is going to help with out pattern going forward, strong cutters usually do at this time of year. Let's hope it trends even stronger and just thrashes this bootleg crapstatic pattern we are in. Booyaahhhh!!!

As Dr. Maue pointed out the GFS is really struggling with the sun-mon or mon-tus storm system, last night was weaker for the area now the 06z GFS has a 983mb LP going through central NY which would most definently put us on the usually stronger south eastern side. It keeps flipping so much who knows. Why is it having so much trouble figuring out to do with the pieces that come together? LR GFS also has some blueee on the maps for the area : )

December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 Gfs_1410

December 2015 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 Gfs_1410

by **jmanley32** Wed Dec 09, 2015 8:51 am

amugs wrote:Whoever guessed in the 65* range is going to score some points in Francis's Winter Competition for this weekend - Sunday - shorts and t-shirt weather!

If its not going to be snowing I would rather have nice temps than bitter cold and no snow.

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Dec 09, 2015 4:07 pm

From what I'm hearing and reading some other sites are still believing in a pattern change coming soon.

by **jmanley32** Wed Dec 09, 2015 4:32 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:From what I'm hearing and reading some other sites are still believing in a pattern change coming soon.

Yes I have been hearing this storm coming Monday could be pretty amped up and may make at least some sort of change for the good for us snow weenies. The models been having issues with the placement and strength of the storm but IMO it will be potent wherever it heads.

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Dec 09, 2015 4:48 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:From what I'm hearing and reading some other sites are still believing in a pattern change coming soon.

Yes I have been hearing this storm coming Monday could be pretty amped up and may make at least some sort of change for the good for us snow weenies. The models been having issues with the placement and strength of the storm but IMO it will be potent wherever it heads.

Agree jman we need something to break this pattern up and this may be what does. I also read which my knowledge is not well versed in is that the warming in the upper atmosphere is heading in the right direction I know Frank on here has talked much about this.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Dec 09, 2015 7:13 pm

Sorry boys but a GLC isn't going to breakup this pattern. GLC's are more a product of a strong El Niño year than a vehicle to change the pattern. If the storm were strong enough it could change things for a few days but if that strong El Niño doesn't letup we are stuck in this rut, and quite a rut it is, for the foreseeable future. Just one frustrated mans opinion.

by **Math23x7** Wed Dec 09, 2015 10:29 pm

Can December go the entire month without freezing? So far, the lowest temperature at CPK this month has been 39 degrees. Looking at the 10-day forecast, the lowest it gets is 41 degrees. I remember that the lowest it went down to in December 2012 was 28 degrees.

by **Dtone** Wed Dec 09, 2015 10:58 pm

Math23x7 wrote:Can December go the entire month without freezing? So far, the lowest temperature at CPK this month has been 39 degrees. Looking at the 10-day forecast, the lowest it gets is 41 degrees. I remember that the lowest it went down to in December 2012 was 28 degrees.

Remarkable stuff. We are gonna get past the half way point of Dec, unable to get below 40 for lows. Lows in the 50s are ahead and 3-4 straight days 60+.
Only taste of freezing was a few mins at 32 one Nov night. LGA has yet to touch 32. Only 1 day with a high below 50 (49 on the 8th) that looks to hold past the half way point into late Dec

by **jmanley32** Thu Dec 10, 2015 7:02 am

Holy crap the 06z is a godzilla for some not to far inland from coast with the 18 th to 20th time. If the cold can just come like 50 to 100 miles south this would b amazing xMas present. Yes it's out 200+ or so hours but still lovely to see something even if it doesn't come fruition. I'll post the snow map in banter later when I'm at my computer.

by **docstox12** Thu Dec 10, 2015 7:12 am

Dtone wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:Can December go the entire month without freezing? So far, the lowest temperature at CPK this month has been 39 degrees. Looking at the 10-day forecast, the lowest it gets is 41 degrees. I remember that the lowest it went down to in December 2012 was 28 degrees.

Remarkable stuff. We are gonna get past the half way point of Dec, unable to get below 40 for lows. Lows in the 50s are ahead and 3-4 straight days 60+.
Only taste of freezing was a few mins at 32 one Nov night. LGA has yet to touch 32. Only 1 day with a high below 50 (49 on the 8th) that looks to hold past the half way point into late Dec

40.8, 91%, 29.82F. Went through some moderate rain showers this morning from Fort Lee NJ to Monroe NY

Holy Crow, 3 straight days in the 60's this late in December! Hell Nino continues to torch! Looks like I'll be having a cigar outside on Sunday.

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