Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

[docstox12]

Here's my deal.  My dad died suddenly this Friday.   I really really really want a HECS on Fri night (not Thursday the day of the funeral).  Maybe he can help us out.

So sorry to hear about this Grselig.Peace be with you.

[Grselig]

Here's my deal.  My dad died suddenly this Friday.   I really really really want a HECS on Fri night (not Thursday the day of the funeral).  Maybe he can help us out.

So sorry to hear about this Grselig.Peace be with you.

Thanks Doc. There will be peace. Just takes time.

But now we lost Glen Frey. very sad. So much loss in 1 week's time. Somebody I worked with a few years ago died as well on Friday. Young. Don't know what's happening.

[Grselig]

Can't believe the current weather situation. A week ago winter was over. Now we have incredible potential with models trending stronger. Nice to see. "Just when i thought they pulled me back in"
Can't stop looking at there boards. so afraid of disappointment

[deadrabbit79]

I will believe it Thursday night if it is still all in place at that point. Last year has scared me.

[amugs]

Did it Zoo great point - - times for the model runs - weather that is not the ones in the OTI thread - hahahaha!!

[sroc4]

by LB3147 Today at 8:15 pm

.and the most sensitive blog known to man kind in the weather world wins again......good job mugs.....delete in any and all posts the mildly doubt the accuracy of this weekends snow event....hillarious....njstrongweather forum....aka USSR for small time weather enthusiasists

[deadrabbit79]

by LB3147 Today at 8:15 pm

.and the most sensitive blog known to man kind in the weather world wins again......good job mugs.....delete in any and all posts the mildly doubt the accuracy of this weekends snow event....hillarious....njstrongweather forum....aka USSR for small time weather enthusiasists

.

agreed..what happened here?  its like it became a clique and if you are not one of the regulars or you dare inject some negativity or post bantor in the wrong thread you are scolded like a 5 year old.  it was never like that, And i never post, i am a sideline guy, i'm just reporting what i see

[Frank_Wx]

A friend reminded me I made this post last month. It's my interpretation of how people behave leading up to a storm.

Someone asked me what this weekend and next week will be like leading up to this possible storm. I had some ideas...
 
The GFS continues outputting a Roidzilla type storm each run. Twitter bursts into a frenzy with snowfall maps and references to historical blizzards such as 1996. TV Mets begin hinting of the possibility this weekend. Once the week starts, their tone changes from skepticism to acknowledgment this is actually possible. The EURO, CMC, NAVGEM, UKMET begin showing the same thing as the GFS. Weenies reach an extreme level of ween and start making snow maps for a storm still 7 days out. Soon, these snow maps go viral then Mets have to take the time to explain how the general public should not follow social media to track storms. We're within 5-6 days and the GFS loses the storm. People complain how awful the GFS is and that we should only follow the EURO. The same day, the EURO loses the storm. The weenies already wave the white flag. Some overdose on sleeping pills so they can wake up by next winter. Others Google where the nearest bridge is. 
 
We're now within 4 days and the EURO brings the storm back. There's a celebration among the masses. The TV Mets are officially hyping the crap out of the storm telling everyone it will rival Sandy. Home Depot turns into a circus and supermarkets to battelfields. The fight for the last loaf of bread always seems to be between two mom's who honestly have no clue what the F they're doing. They just need milk and bread. Seriously, why not nutella? Just a suggestion. The dads at Home Depot go for the cheapest snowblower there is. Unfortunately some are stuck purchasing the $5,000 one. If you're my Italian Nonna then you'll make sure to windex the hell out of it after the storm so you can return it back to Home Depot. 
 
Well, we're now within 3 days and the SREFS confirm a Roidzilla is coming. Some people are worried the spread is too far east and subsequent runs will push the storm out to sea. Others start reminiscing about Juno and how 2.0 may happen. Weenies attack those people as if they just kidnapped their child or took their winning PowerBall lottery ticket. The SREFS in the PM run have a spread closer to the coast and the Powerball winner is so happy he says the first weenie to make a snow map showing his backyard in the jackpot will get half his money. 
 
We're within 24 hours from this epic storm. The sky turns ominous and the air begins to smell like snow. No point in going to the supermarket unless you're looking for the soul you lost when you were there 2 days prior. At this point, weenies, enthusiasts, and Mets alike have slept 16 hours total in the last 6 days. Since family members know you're the weather nerd you receive endless emails and texts asking how much snow the area will get. 
 
Let's be honest, the morning of the storm rivals Christmas Day. Everyone is in their glory and - naturally - check the 06z to make sure nothing has changed that would require die hard fans to be rushed to the ER. 
 
And that's how the cookie will crumble.

[Radz]

Well, since it seems we have a POTENTIAL to see something close to '96 as currently modeled, I thought i'd take a look back... btw, check out "finding #10" - http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/pdfs/bz-mrg.pdf

[jmanley32]

Banter for Banter....The banter in the thread or any negativity needs to stay here, it makes reading the thread much to long and its not factual, please to the new users great to have you but as someone who has learned over the past two years to seperate my emotional posts from ones that are in the real threads it has to happen. I know Frank, mugs, scroc, al etc all have a strict rule to not banter in serious threads and its for good reason so respect and all will be good. And btw this storm is going to be epic, any whining and I'll do whatever that thing was mugs or syo was talking about curse thing lol rant over : ) And there is no hostility in this I have a smile on my face.

[amugs]

Well, since it seems we have a POTENTIAL to see something close  to '96 as currently modeled, I thought i'd take a look back... btw, check out "finding #10" - http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/pdfs/bz-mrg.pdf

Radz this is awesome - brings back fond fond memories.

@ Jman thanks for the personal plug on the banter we try our best hereto keep things moving along especially with such a storm of this magnitude coming

[billg315]

A friend reminded me I made this post last month. It's my interpretation of how people behave leading up to a storm.

Someone asked me what this weekend and next week will be like leading up to this possible storm. I had some ideas...
 
The GFS continues outputting a Roidzilla type storm each run. Twitter bursts into a frenzy with snowfall maps and references to historical blizzards such as 1996. TV Mets begin hinting of the possibility this weekend. Once the week starts, their tone changes from skepticism to acknowledgment this is actually possible. The EURO, CMC, NAVGEM, UKMET begin showing the same thing as the GFS. Weenies reach an extreme level of ween and start making snow maps for a storm still 7 days out. Soon, these snow maps go viral then Mets have to take the time to explain how the general public should not follow social media to track storms. We're within 5-6 days and the GFS loses the storm. People complain how awful the GFS is and that we should only follow the EURO. The same day, the EURO loses the storm. The weenies already wave the white flag. Some overdose on sleeping pills so they can wake up by next winter. Others Google where the nearest bridge is. 
 
We're now within 4 days and the EURO brings the storm back. There's a celebration among the masses. The TV Mets are officially hyping the crap out of the storm telling everyone it will rival Sandy. Home Depot turns into a circus and supermarkets to battelfields. The fight for the last loaf of bread always seems to be between two mom's who honestly have no clue what the F they're doing. They just need milk and bread. Seriously, why not nutella? Just a suggestion. The dads at Home Depot go for the cheapest snowblower there is. Unfortunately some are stuck purchasing the $5,000 one. If you're my Italian Nonna then you'll make sure to windex the hell out of it after the storm so you can return it back to Home Depot. 
 
Well, we're now within 3 days and the SREFS confirm a Roidzilla is coming. Some people are worried the spread is too far east and subsequent runs will push the storm out to sea. Others start reminiscing about Juno and how 2.0 may happen. Weenies attack those people as if they just kidnapped their child or took their winning PowerBall lottery ticket. The SREFS in the PM run have a spread closer to the coast and the Powerball winner is so happy he says the first weenie to make a snow map showing his backyard in the jackpot will get half his money. 
 
We're within 24 hours from this epic storm. The sky turns ominous and the air begins to smell like snow. No point in going to the supermarket unless you're looking for the soul you lost when you were there 2 days prior. At this point, weenies, enthusiasts, and Mets alike have slept 16 hours total in the last 6 days. Since family members know you're the weather nerd you receive endless emails and texts asking how much snow the area will get. 
 
Let's be honest, the morning of the storm rivals Christmas Day. Everyone is in their glory and - naturally - check the 06z to make sure nothing has changed that would require die hard fans to be rushed to the ER. 
 
And that's how the cookie will crumble.

I remember this post well. And I think I'm going to buy Nutella Thursday night as an homage to Frank.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I'm sorry peeps, I should remember this by now. What are the requirements for a Godzilla, Roidzilla and lastly, the ever elusive Frankzilla?

Someone just posted this a few days ago:
6"-12" - MECS = Godzilla (Mild East Coast Storm)
12"-24" - HECS = Roidzilla (Heavy)
24+" = BECS = Frankzilla (Biblical)

Not quite right Sparky. Whoever posted this a few days ago is wrong.

For the last time please and everyone write this down and study because there will be a pop quiz.

6-11 inches is an SECS - significant east coast storm. There is no Zilla term for this, I might suggest Mothrazilla for those old time Godzilla fans, that know who Mothra is.

12-23 Godzilla or MECS - major east coast storm
24-35 Roidzilla or HECS - historic east coast storm
36 inches or up Frankzilla or BECS - Biblical east coast storm

Anyone that misuses one of these terms again will be banned from OTI for one year. And please don't ask what OTI is or you will be banned for life.

Reader alert - I do not have the authority to ban or suspend anyone, but on the OTI thread my powers are almost limitless.

TheConservancyCantMeasureSnow
Grand High Exalted Mystique Ruler.

[docstox12]

I'm sorry peeps, I should remember this by now. What are the requirements for a Godzilla, Roidzilla and lastly, the ever elusive Frankzilla?

Someone just posted this a few days ago:
6"-12" - MECS = Godzilla (Mild East Coast Storm)
12"-24" - HECS = Roidzilla (Heavy)
24+" = BECS = Frankzilla (Biblical)

Not quite right Sparky. Whoever posted this a few days ago is wrong.

For the last time please and everyone write this down and study because there will be a pop quiz.

6-11 inches is an SECS - significant east coast storm. There is no Zilla term for this, I might suggest Mothrazilla for those old time Godzilla fans, that know who Mothra is.

12-23 Godzilla or MECS - major east coast storm
24-35 Roidzilla or HECS - historic east coast storm
36 inches or up Frankzilla or BECS - Biblical east coast storm

Anyone that misuses one of these terms again will be banned from OTI for one year. And please don't ask what OTI is or you will be banned for life.

Reader alert - I do not have the authority to ban or suspend anyone, but on the OTI thread my powers are almost limitless.

TheConservancyCantMeasureSnow
Grand High Exalted Mystique Ruler.

Mothrazilla.....classic!

[Sparky Sparticles]

Not quite right Sparky. Whoever posted this a few days ago is wrong.

Mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa. Forgive me, oh Grand High Exalted Mystique Ruler.

For the last time please and everyone write this down and study because there will be a pop quiz.

Yes, sir!

6-11 inches is an SECS - significant east coast storm. There is no Zilla term for this, I might suggest Mothrazilla for those old time Godzilla fans, that know who Mothra is.

He of the tiny twins, and like Gamera, is a friend to children. Yes, he's well known in this family. Good choice.

[docstox12]

A friend reminded me I made this post last month. It's my interpretation of how people behave leading up to a storm.

Someone asked me what this weekend and next week will be like leading up to this possible storm. I had some ideas...
 
The GFS continues outputting a Roidzilla type storm each run. Twitter bursts into a frenzy with snowfall maps and references to historical blizzards such as 1996. TV Mets begin hinting of the possibility this weekend. Once the week starts, their tone changes from skepticism to acknowledgment this is actually possible. The EURO, CMC, NAVGEM, UKMET begin showing the same thing as the GFS. Weenies reach an extreme level of ween and start making snow maps for a storm still 7 days out. Soon, these snow maps go viral then Mets have to take the time to explain how the general public should not follow social media to track storms. We're within 5-6 days and the GFS loses the storm. People complain how awful the GFS is and that we should only follow the EURO. The same day, the EURO loses the storm. The weenies already wave the white flag. Some overdose on sleeping pills so they can wake up by next winter. Others Google where the nearest bridge is. 
 
We're now within 4 days and the EURO brings the storm back. There's a celebration among the masses. The TV Mets are officially hyping the crap out of the storm telling everyone it will rival Sandy. Home Depot turns into a circus and supermarkets to battelfields. The fight for the last loaf of bread always seems to be between two mom's who honestly have no clue what the F they're doing. They just need milk and bread. Seriously, why not nutella? Just a suggestion. The dads at Home Depot go for the cheapest snowblower there is. Unfortunately some are stuck purchasing the $5,000 one. If you're my Italian Nonna then you'll make sure to windex the hell out of it after the storm so you can return it back to Home Depot. 
 
Well, we're now within 3 days and the SREFS confirm a Roidzilla is coming. Some people are worried the spread is too far east and subsequent runs will push the storm out to sea. Others start reminiscing about Juno and how 2.0 may happen. Weenies attack those people as if they just kidnapped their child or took their winning PowerBall lottery ticket. The SREFS in the PM run have a spread closer to the coast and the Powerball winner is so happy he says the first weenie to make a snow map showing his backyard in the jackpot will get half his money. 
 
We're within 24 hours from this epic storm. The sky turns ominous and the air begins to smell like snow. No point in going to the supermarket unless you're looking for the soul you lost when you were there 2 days prior. At this point, weenies, enthusiasts, and Mets alike have slept 16 hours total in the last 6 days. Since family members know you're the weather nerd you receive endless emails and texts asking how much snow the area will get. 
 
Let's be honest, the morning of the storm rivals Christmas Day. Everyone is in their glory and - naturally - check the 06z to make sure nothing has changed that would require die hard fans to be rushed to the ER. 
 
And that's how the cookie will crumble.

Frank, I am adding your thesis on Snow Derangement Syndrome to our data collection here at the OTI Sanitarium.Thanks for the help!!!!

[billg315]

A few fast thoughts after the late night/overnight model runs:
1. Waaaaay too early for people obsess over exact snowfall amounts. These will change back and forth, maybe by as much as several inches or a foot about 10 times between now and Friday night;
2. Three days ago people were calling winter over and last night I heard people being disappointed or concerned when a model shift showed them ONLY getting 8-10" of snow. In ANY winter 8-10" is a very good storm. In this winter it would be fantastic. If I get a 6-10" storm I will not be disappointed.
3. (Related to 2) My concern is with these 20-30" projections people will now be disappointed if we get 10". That's crazy. And unfortunate.
4. If I had to guess, this storm will not last 35-40 hours. My experience is these storms move more quickly than expected/modeled as they arrive and snow window narrows. If it does last more than 24 hours I'd expect a two-part storm with dry slotting and a break in the middle. And not heavy snow the whole time;
5. I do still see mixing issues at the coast which is too close by for me not to be concerned it could spread NW in 3 days of model runs. I wouldn't write just yet off the dreaded mid-storm sleet/rain/snow mix that cuts down on totals before the change back to all snow (except far N&W and HV where that seems really unlikely).
6. Likewise too early to write off a shift S&E which lowers totals in central/north NJ/NYC and blitzes DC/Balt/Philly.
7. Now that I've thrown those thoughts out there, I'll end on a more positive note. The models all look good right now (I include a 10" storm as looking "good"). I am very excited with what I see and feel good about where we are 3-plus days out. Just trying to keep a realistic view of things for now. :-)

[algae888]

A few fast thoughts after the late night/overnight model runs:
1. Waaaaay too early for people obsess over exact snowfall amounts. These will change back and forth, maybe by as much as several inches or a foot about 10 times between now and Friday night;
2. Three days ago people were calling winter over and last night I heard people being disappointed or concerned when a model shift showed them ONLY getting 8-10" of snow. In ANY winter 8-10" is a very good storm. In this winter it would be fantastic. If I get a 6-10" storm I will not be disappointed.
3. (Related to 2)  My concern is with these 20-30" projections people will now be disappointed if we get 10". That's crazy. And unfortunate.
4. If I had to guess, this storm will not last 35-40 hours. My experience is these storms move more quickly than expected/modeled as they arrive and snow window narrows. If it does last more than 24 hours I'd expect a two-part storm with dry slotting and a break in the middle. And not heavy snow the whole time;
5. I do still see mixing issues at the coast which is too close by for me not to be concerned it could spread NW in 3 days of model runs. I wouldn't write just yet off the dreaded mid-storm sleet/rain/snow mix that cuts down on totals before the change back to all snow (except far N&W and HV where that seems really unlikely).
6. Likewise too early to write off a shift S&E which lowers totals in central/north NJ/NYC and blitzes DC/Balt/Philly.
7. Now that I've thrown those thoughts out there, I'll end on a more positive note. The models all look good right now (I include a 10" storm as looking "good"). I am very excited with what I see and feel good about where we are 3-plus days out. Just trying to keep a realistic view of things for now. :-)

great write up. and then we will be on to the next one....


2 storm totals

[Frank_Wx]

I'm sorry peeps, I should remember this by now. What are the requirements for a Godzilla, Roidzilla and lastly, the ever elusive Frankzilla?

Someone just posted this a few days ago:
6"-12" - MECS = Godzilla (Mild East Coast Storm)
12"-24" - HECS = Roidzilla (Heavy)
24+" = BECS = Frankzilla (Biblical)

Not quite right Sparky. Whoever posted this a few days ago is wrong.

For the last time please and everyone write this down and study because there will be a pop quiz.

6-11 inches is an SECS - significant east coast storm. There is no Zilla term for this, I might suggest Mothrazilla for those old time Godzilla fans, that know who Mothra is.

12-23 Godzilla or MECS - major east coast storm
24-35 Roidzilla or HECS - historic east coast storm
36 inches or up Frankzilla or BECS - Biblical east coast storm

Anyone that misuses one of these terms again will be banned from OTI for one year. And please don't ask what OTI is or you will be banned for life.

Reader alert - I do not have the authority to ban or suspend anyone, but on the OTI thread my powers are almost limitless.

TheConservancyCantMeasureSnow
Grand High Exalted Mystique Ruler.

THIS!!! WRITE IT DOWN PEOPLE!!!!

[sroc4]

I'm sorry peeps, I should remember this by now. What are the requirements for a Godzilla, Roidzilla and lastly, the ever elusive Frankzilla?

Someone just posted this a few days ago:
6"-12" - MECS = Godzilla (Mild East Coast Storm)
12"-24" - HECS = Roidzilla (Heavy)
24+" = BECS = Frankzilla (Biblical)

Not quite right Sparky. Whoever posted this a few days ago is wrong.

For the last time please and everyone write this down and study because there will be a pop quiz.

6-11 inches is an SECS - significant east coast storm. There is no Zilla term for this, I might suggest Mothrazilla for those old time Godzilla fans, that know who Mothra is.

12-23 Godzilla or MECS - major east coast storm
24-35 Roidzilla or HECS - historic east coast storm
36 inches or up Frankzilla or BECS - Biblical east coast storm

Anyone that misuses one of these terms again will be banned from OTI for one year. And please don't ask what OTI is or you will be banned for life.

Reader alert - I do not have the authority to ban or suspend anyone, but on the OTI thread my powers are almost limitless.

TheConservancyCantMeasureSnow
Grand High Exalted Mystique Ruler.

THIS!!! WRITE IT DOWN PEOPLE!!!!

I will pin this somewhere for future reference

[amugs]

Cp,

Love the powers of OTI!!!
Ya da man!!

Mugs

[Grselig]

Cp,

Love the powers of OTI!!!
Ya da man!!

Mugs

.OTI citizens demand a kind ruler. They do not tolerate thugs. They are calling the monarchy thugs.
They are also starving and malnourished from the lack of life sustaining fluffy stuff. If a Zilla does not happen there will be anarchy on OTI. Bloody good times with guillotines that would make the French Revolutionaries jealous. (and the good citizens are protesting for more than just a mere Godzilla.)

Look, don't ban me, oh Great and Kind King. I'm just sharing the news.

FYI, I've always been partial to King Kong V Godzilla. Any fairly intelligent and reasonable person should conclude that Godzilla should have won

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Gris.

That's ridiculous. King Kong was in much better shape, faster and flexible. If Giodzilla runs out of fire he's toast. No pun intended.

As for OTI I have always been against the monarchy but I also detest anarchy. There will be no revolutions on OTI with Sir Snow Man back in charge of security. I'd watch my step if I were you. His methods of cruelty make a day with ISIS look like a picnic in comparison.

Also we need to put these in the OTI thread. Emperor Frank has been very benevolent with us but I don't want to test his patience.

[jmanley32]

Anyone paid attention past this storm OMG! Huge coastal again at he 216-240, adds this much to 06z GFS, about 2 feet, to the 6z GFS, which was low with 10 inches around NYC. 240 35+ LOL

[Grselig]

Gris.

That's ridiculous. King Kong was in much better shape, faster and flexible. If Giodzilla runs out of fire he's toast. No pun intended.

As for OTI I have always been against the monarchy but I also detest anarchy. There will be no revolutions on OTI with Sir Snow Man back in charge of security. I'd watch my step if I were you. His methods of cruelty make a day with ISIS look like a picnic in comparison.

Also we need to put these in the OTI thread. Emperor Frank has been very benevolent with us but I don't want to test his patience.

That's just foolish, Oh Great One, Sir. With all due respect, Godzilla has atomic fire breath. He will run out of nuclear powered breath well after Kong is dust. He can burn cities as an afterthought. He has a tail that can topple buildings. Kong is just a big ape.

The people of OTI are a peaceful kind. But know this and be warned. They have their limits. They enjoy cruelty. They worship Stalin. They actually invented water boarding. Indeed. Emperor Frank is a great Ruler. A supreme being teetering on Godhood. The Mighty Thor pales in comparison. As a good citizen I carry warnings. The people demand a ROIDzilla, or at least a FrankZilla. For the sake of peace and prosperity on OTI the good People hope that the Great Frank uses his awesome powers to produce such a monster.

[Grselig]

CP - Thanks, I will post next in OTI thread!!!

[Frank_Wx]

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