Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

[Grselig]

Ok looks like a very bad winter for many of us. I am still happy that some of us found gold in a pile of Sh.. with Roidzilla

[essexcountypete]

Saw the banner and had to come to banter to see what was up. April Fools a little early? LOL!

I'm loving the discussion about the perception of the weather over time, and thank you CP for helping me understand my own bias. I'm 47 so I kind of fall in that range you mention and my overall perception of winter as an adult is through the eyes of a child growing up through the 70's. There always seemed to be sledding at Mountainside Park, and Edgemont Pond was always frozen solid for skating every year that I can remember.

[amugs]

Excellent discussion here gang and great points made. To CP's point about the ice and GW that I truly respect not starting a firestorm in here even though it is banter - there is a book that I have read by a leading scientist climatologist who worked for teh UN GW team and left about 8 years ago due to her disgust in the process and misrepresentation of information - there is a shock, the gov't bogging and skewing things/information - that points to CYCLES of our space ship - yes we live on a space ship that floats in .................SPACE get real here people and think outside teh box for a moment ..............these cycles can last for thousands of years as she pointed out in here book some even longer. She feels and shows scientific evidence that we are in an ebb and flow cycle between periods- the periods of glacial extent and retraction as it is called in her book. Hence, JB said in 2010 the next five years would offer colder and snowier than normal winters. Well he got 3 out of 5 I think.

I am for one frustrated by this winter and some what perplexed as are most folks by the wild swings and lack there of the NAO being Negative. AS Frank pointed out in teh LR thread that a majority of factors pointed towards this occurring this winter - warm SST, High Siberian Snow extent to name two of the most important but to no avail. If the big IF we had some any type of frickin blocking we would have rocked - who wants a deeply NEG NAO in JUNE/JULY - take that and throw it away it means nothing then IMHO. The sun did not help wither with big solar activity in NOV and Dec that hampered things as well. It was like we got rocked by the pattern in December with unbelievable warmth and the pattern really never un tracked, it tried but just couldn't get there. Reminds me of 2011-12 - always 10 days away - never really came to fruition.
So now we have what goes down as one of the warmest winters on record with one of the coldest day along with one of the greatest snowfalls from a storm - all CPK - still measured wrong there - all in one - all we needed was a tornado to hit the area and next locusts to invade and this woudl have made this the worst winter ever!
I' ll start a thread in a few weeks grading winter.

[amugs]

Watch the stupid gfs take the storm fir next week and run it over Cleveland again. The gosh darn nao is friggin killing us!!! I hate u NAO!!!!!!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Watch the stupid gfs take the storm fir next week and run it over Cleveland again. The gosh darn nao is friggin killing us!!! I hate u NAO!!!!!!

I'm not a violent man but if the positive NAO was some kind of living organism I would take out a contract on its life.

Kill it before it kills one of us.

[amugs]

Watch the stupid gfs take the storm fir next week and run it over Cleveland again. The gosh darn nao is friggin killing us!!! I hate u NAO!!!!!!

I'm not a violent man but if the positive NAO was some kind of living organism I would take out a contract on its life.

Kill it before it kills one of us.

LMAO!!!!!!!!!! You are the new Don of the NJ Weather Board - shall I be the first to kiss the ring???
GOD FADDER!!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Watch the stupid gfs take the storm fir next week and run it over Cleveland again. The gosh darn nao is friggin killing us!!! I hate u NAO!!!!!!

I'm not a violent man but if the positive NAO was some kind of living organism I would take out a contract on its life.

Kill it before it kills one of us.

LMAO!!!!!!!!!! You are the new Don of the NJ Weather Board - shall I be the first to kiss the ring???
GOD FADDER!!

It's not personal Mugs its just business.

I could watch the first two Godfather movies ten times. Classic, all time great movies.

For any of the younger set out there that have never watched either movie from beginning to end, do yourselves a favor one night and watch both I and II.

[sroc4]

Watch the stupid gfs take the storm fir next week and run it over Cleveland again. The gosh darn nao is friggin killing us!!! I hate u NAO!!!!!!

I'm not a violent man but if the positive NAO was some kind of living organism I would take out a contract on its life.

Kill it before it kills one of us.

LMAO!!!!!!!!!! You are the new Don of the NJ Weather Board - shall I be the first to kiss the ring???
GOD FADDER!!

It's not personal Mugs its just business.

I could watch the first two Godfather movies ten times. Classic, all time great movies.

For any of the younger set out there that have never watched either movie from beginning to end, do yourselves a favor one night and watch both I and II.

NAO..I knew it was you the whole time!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Watch the stupid gfs take the storm fir next week and run it over Cleveland again. The gosh darn nao is friggin killing us!!! I hate u NAO!!!!!!

I'm not a violent man but if the positive NAO was some kind of living organism I would take out a contract on its life.

Kill it before it kills one of us.

LMAO!!!!!!!!!! You are the new Don of the NJ Weather Board - shall I be the first to kiss the ring???
GOD FADDER!!

It's not personal Mugs its just business.

I could watch the first two Godfather movies ten times. Classic, all time great movies.

For any of the younger set out there that have never watched either movie from beginning to end, do yourselves a favor one night and watch both I and II.

NAO..I knew it was you the whole time!  

I laughed out load Scott. Nice

[sroc4]

Watch the stupid gfs take the storm fir next week and run it over Cleveland again. The gosh darn nao is friggin killing us!!! I hate u NAO!!!!!!

I'm not a violent man but if the positive NAO was some kind of living organism I would take out a contract on its life.

Kill it before it kills one of us.

LMAO!!!!!!!!!! You are the new Don of the NJ Weather Board - shall I be the first to kiss the ring???
GOD FADDER!!

It's not personal Mugs its just business.

I could watch the first two Godfather movies ten times. Classic, all time great movies.

For any of the younger set out there that have never watched either movie from beginning to end, do yourselves a favor one night and watch both I and II.

NAO..I knew it was you the whole time!  

I laughed out load Scott. Nice

LOL me too CP from your post. Now my staff is wondering why I am whistling the Godfather.

[docstox12]

Watch the stupid gfs take the storm fir next week and run it over Cleveland again. The gosh darn nao is friggin killing us!!! I hate u NAO!!!!!!

I'm not a violent man but if the positive NAO was some kind of living organism I would take out a contract on its life.

Kill it before it kills one of us.

LMAO!!!!!!!!!! You are the new Don of the NJ Weather Board - shall I be the first to kiss the ring???
GOD FADDER!!

It's not personal Mugs its just business.

I could watch the first two Godfather movies ten times. Classic, all time great movies.

For any of the younger set out there that have never watched either movie from beginning to end, do yourselves a favor one night and watch both I and II.

NAO..I knew it was you the whole time!  

"And may your first NAO be a masculine one!"

[docstox12]

Watch the stupid gfs take the storm fir next week and run it over Cleveland again. The gosh darn nao is friggin killing us!!! I hate u NAO!!!!!!

I'm not a violent man but if the positive NAO was some kind of living organism I would take out a contract on its life.

Kill it before it kills one of us.

LMAO!!!!!!!!!! You are the new Don of the NJ Weather Board - shall I be the first to kiss the ring???
GOD FADDER!!

It's not personal Mugs its just business.

I could watch the first two Godfather movies ten times. Classic, all time great movies.

For any of the younger set out there that have never watched either movie from beginning to end, do yourselves a favor one night and watch both I and II.

Someday when we are all together at a gtg and we are all properly mentally adjusted with the right amount of alcohol, I will perform my Vito Corleone Godfather impression of the opening scene of the movie....complete with stuffing tissue paper in my cheeks black suit jacket and tie.

I've seen them all,I,II and III many times.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Watch the stupid gfs take the storm fir next week and run it over Cleveland again. The gosh darn nao is friggin killing us!!! I hate u NAO!!!!!!

I'm not a violent man but if the positive NAO was some kind of living organism I would take out a contract on its life.

Kill it before it kills one of us.

LMAO!!!!!!!!!! You are the new Don of the NJ Weather Board - shall I be the first to kiss the ring???
GOD FADDER!!

It's not personal Mugs its just business.

I could watch the first two Godfather movies ten times. Classic, all time great movies.

For any of the younger set out there that have never watched either movie from beginning to end, do yourselves a favor one night and watch both I and II.

NAO..I knew it was you the whole time!  

"And may your first NAO be a masculine one!"

I'm dying now

Anyone that's never seen the godfather has no idea why

[amugs]

Watch the stupid gfs take the storm fir next week and run it over Cleveland again. The gosh darn nao is friggin killing us!!! I hate u NAO!!!!!!

I'm not a violent man but if the positive NAO was some kind of living organism I would take out a contract on its life.

Kill it before it kills one of us.

LMAO!!!!!!!!!! You are the new Don of the NJ Weather Board - shall I be the first to kiss the ring???
GOD FADDER!!

It's not personal Mugs its just business.

I could watch the first two Godfather movies ten times. Classic, all time great movies.

For any of the younger set out there that have never watched either movie from beginning to end, do yourselves a favor one night and watch both I and II.

NAO..I knew it was you the whole time!  

"And may your first NAO be a masculine one!"

My students think I am nuts sitting here LMAO all by myself !!

[sroc4]

Watch the stupid gfs take the storm fir next week and run it over Cleveland again. The gosh darn nao is friggin killing us!!! I hate u NAO!!!!!!

I'm not a violent man but if the positive NAO was some kind of living organism I would take out a contract on its life.

Kill it before it kills one of us.

LMAO!!!!!!!!!! You are the new Don of the NJ Weather Board - shall I be the first to kiss the ring???
GOD FADDER!!

It's not personal Mugs its just business.

I could watch the first two Godfather movies ten times. Classic, all time great movies.

For any of the younger set out there that have never watched either movie from beginning to end, do yourselves a favor one night and watch both I and II.

NAO..I knew it was you the whole time!  

"And may your first NAO be a masculine one!"

My students think I am nuts sitting here LMAO all by myself !!

And one of my all time favorites... "Leave the gun. Take the cannoli"

[sroc4]

If you have a Weather Bell Acct Joe D'Aleo has an interesting discussion last night.  He discusses the global temps in relation to the El Nino/La Nina, PDO(Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and AMO(Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation) cycles.  Its filled with graphs and maps; too many for me to post here, but his conclusion:
"When the AMO goes negative and is joined by the PDO in the years ahead, the arctic will cool and ice return."

http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/joe-daleo/temperatures-as-they-relate-to-the-oceans-1

[Quietace]

If you have a Weather Bell Acct Joe D'Aleo has an interesting discussion last night.  He discusses the global temps in relation to the El Nino/La Nina, PDO(Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and AMO(Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation) cycles.  Its filled with graphs and maps; too many for me to post here, but his conclusion:
"When the AMO goes negative and is joined by the PDO in the years ahead, the arctic will cool and ice return."

http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/joe-daleo/temperatures-as-they-relate-to-the-oceans-1

I see his points...yet I question his decision to use Tmax temps for the reason I quote "not contaminated by UHI as much as the minimum." UHI is part of global climatology now, thus excluding its effect on temperatures is negligent. Part of the increase in global 2mT is due to rapid sub-urbanization, large use of low specific heat/albedo substances; and more recently the decrease in active rural sensors. I understand his point in excluding UHI to compare how global temps how have increased without UHI(in rural areas), but withdrawing that impact in total, or partly is again disappointing as I stated prior, UHI is part of today's climatology.

[sroc4]

What does UHI stand for Ryan?

[Quietace]

What does UHI stand for Ryan?

Urban Heat Island(UHI)

[Math23x7]

The fact that there is a warm signal east of the Rockies for the second week of March makes me wish that Daylight savings Time begins on March 6th instead of March 13th...

[frank 638]

I hate to say this I am done with this winter so many opportunities for snow chances in Feb it never happened thank god we had that blizzard in Jan if not this would a snow less year .I look forward for spring especially baseball let's go Yankees BBQ start my garden and more

[dkodgis]

Forsythia will be out in a few weeks. Well, I got about four inches of snow this winter so while no one has winter turn out exactly the way he wants it, I guess that is no reason to complain. Sometimes, I still do. Some very surprising stats for me: only one cord of wood this year and I will finish heating season 100 gallons of oil under last year and the year before. When we had the house built in 2001, we could easy use 900 gallons. After years of fixing and insulating on top of the new house's nooks and crannies, we usually burn 450 gallons a year for 3600 square feet. This time, it will be 350 gallons. Yowzah!

[amugs]

If you have a Weather Bell Acct Joe D'Aleo has an interesting discussion last night.  He discusses the global temps in relation to the El Nino/La Nina, PDO(Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and AMO(Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation) cycles.  Its filled with graphs and maps; too many for me to post here, but his conclusion:
"When the AMO goes negative and is joined by the PDO in the years ahead, the arctic will cool and ice return."

http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/joe-daleo/temperatures-as-they-relate-to-the-oceans-1

I see his points...yet I question his decision to use Tmax temps for the reason I quote "not contaminated by UHI as much as the minimum." UHI is part of global climatology now, thus excluding its effect on temperatures is negligent. Part of the increase in global 2mT is due to rapid sub-urbanization, large use of low specific heat/albedo substances; and more recently the decrease in active rural sensors. I understand his point in excluding UHI to compare how global temps how have increased without UHI(in rural areas), but withdrawing that impact in total, or partly is again disappointing as I stated prior, UHI is part of today's climatology.

more recently the decrease in active rural sensors. - this is what Brikner talks about in his book on the Climate in the HV and NYC Metro - hundreds of sensors that have been turned off - listening to him talk about this at a presentation he gave was very interesting - he wrote to NWS about this and they really ticked him off with their response of to the fact "they are no longer needed in our forecasting climatology system". UHI that was once just for the big cities has spread some 20 miles plus outside of this zone since teh early 1980's - talked about this in a post in this thread and in CP NYC thread as well. Where I live today in NENJ was once a ruralish area going back to the  to mid 1980's with lots of wooded tracts of land and numerous farms. In the last 30 years now we have urbanized these tracts of land. It all adds up IMO. Lastly, can we please remove the sensors on at the airports? For crying all night put the heat sensors on top of the vents from the tunnels and subways why don't we to this point - ever stand on teh tarmac or at teh end of teh runway - I have many times - before 9-11 yuo could watch planes take off and land at will at Newark and man was it hot from tarmac to the jet exhaust every 30-60 seconds of planes taking off and landing - just sayin.

[amugs]

This is to Math's comment about the winter if 1995-96
Two thaws over 4 months of cold an snowstorms. I lived it and loved every fricking g minute from the Tues snowstorm after turkey day to late March / early April.
I do not know how anyone or that fact any winter loving human would give the KING of WINTERS lower than an A. Two thaws didn't mean ugatz that winter and the rainstorm was incredible as was the thaw that lasted a couple of days- big whoop tie friggin due over four months. We got hammered with storm after storm oh and the great blizzard that crippled and I mean crippled the Megalopolis for a week. I did not grow up in the 60' s so it is not a frame of reference for me but 1977-78, 78-79 were bang bang winters as well as 93-94 for me in NNJ.
Math after each thaw winter came right back with a vengeance. Mind boggling to even complain or make mention of the best winter in the NYC metro area since the ice age?!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

This is to Math's comment about the winter if 1995-96
Two thaws over 4 months of cold an snowstorms. I lived it and loved every fricking g minute from the Tues snowstorm after turkey day to late March / early April.
I do not know how anyone or that fact any winter loving human would give the KING of WINTERS lower than an A. Two thaws didn't mean ugatz that winter and the rainstorm was incredible as was the thaw that lasted a couple of days- big whoop tie friggin due over four months. We got hammered with storm after storm oh and the great blizzard that crippled and I mean crippled the Megalopolis for a week. I did not grow up in the 60' s so it is not a frame of reference for me but 1977-78, 78-79 were bang bang winters as well as 93-94 for me in NNJ.
Math after each thaw winter came right back with a vengeance. Mind boggling to even complain or make mention of the best winter in the NYC metro area since the ice age?!

Excellent points/

The thaws were so short lived, what amazed me more than anything that winter was how quickly the snow pack just built back up. An A+.

1993/94 was pretty close, colder and almost as much snow especially up here.

[Isotherm]

The snow from this winter's blizzard didn't melt immediately in my area. I had snow on the ground almost every day from Jan 17th-Feb 10th. So for me, a winter like this is more exciting than 5 6" events spread throughout. I thoroughly enjoyed the past couple of winters, but honestly found myself left with a bit of a "void" due to the fact that the 15"+ snowstorms were absent since 2010-11. I would be surprised if we went March completely snowless, but this winter only needs one more significant event (6"+) to be at least a B in my area. Temp departures averaged +0.7 here for Jan-feb (0.0 jan, +1.4 Feb). Jan-Feb was nowhere near as torchy in the East as most of the super Nino years (83, 73, 98). Overall, it's an "OK" winter here for now.

[Quietace]

If you have a Weather Bell Acct Joe D'Aleo has an interesting discussion last night.  He discusses the global temps in relation to the El Nino/La Nina, PDO(Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and AMO(Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation) cycles.  Its filled with graphs and maps; too many for me to post here, but his conclusion:
"When the AMO goes negative and is joined by the PDO in the years ahead, the arctic will cool and ice return."

http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/joe-daleo/temperatures-as-they-relate-to-the-oceans-1

I see his points...yet I question his decision to use Tmax temps for the reason I quote "not contaminated by UHI as much as the minimum." UHI is part of global climatology now, thus excluding its effect on temperatures is negligent. Part of the increase in global 2mT is due to rapid sub-urbanization, large use of low specific heat/albedo substances; and more recently the decrease in active rural sensors. I understand his point in excluding UHI to compare how global temps how have increased without UHI(in rural areas), but withdrawing that impact in total, or partly is again disappointing as I stated prior, UHI is part of today's climatology.

more recently the decrease in active rural sensors. - this is what Brikner talks about in his book on the Climate in the HV and NYC Metro - hundreds of sensors that have been turned off - listening to him talk about this at a presentation he gave was very interesting - he wrote to NWS about this and they really ticked him off with their response of to the fact "they are no longer needed in our forecasting climatology system". UHI that was once just for the big cities has spread some 20 miles plus outside of this zone since teh early 1980's - talked about this in a post in this thread and in CP NYC thread as well. Where I live today in NENJ was once a ruralish area going back to the  to mid 1980's with lots of wooded tracts of land and numerous farms. In the last 30 years now we have urbanized these tracts of land. It all adds up IMO. Lastly, can we please remove the sensors on at the airports? For crying all night put the heat sensors on top of the vents from the tunnels and subways why don't we to this point - ever stand on teh tarmac or at teh end of teh runway - I have many times - before 9-11 yuo could watch planes take off and land at will at Newark and man was it hot from tarmac to the jet exhaust every 30-60 seconds of planes taking off and landing - just sayin.

You have to note why sensors were turned off. Some of them had high CRN categorical errors, while others were eliminated due to budget cuts and deferred maintenance(similarly to how our oceanic floating buoy network has diminished). I would like to question your point for moving airport sensors. Where would you move them in big cities? You can not move them into a park as that would skew correct temperature readings for the city due to UHI. The reasons airports are used is for quality control of data. NOAA has requirements, and usually these requirements are only met at airports in big cities.
-Sensor must be 5 feet above the ground (+/- 1 foot).
-Must be over a level terrain with an open area clearing so the thermometers are freely ventilated by air flow.
-Sensor should be no closer than 4 times the height of any obstruction (tree, fence, building, etc.).
-Sensor should be at least 100 feet from any paved or concrete surface
I will note that none of this matters if a majority of stations are CRN-4 anyway. Data is already skewed, as is not adjusted. I give the example of KMJX(Toms River). It ran at CRN-5 for a while before being fixed. I remember seeing 100 degree reading all the time in the summer.

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