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02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map

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NJ Strong Weather Forum  :: NJ Strong Weather Discussions :: Official Weather Talk Thread

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02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:48 pm

00z RGEM is very solid for most

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 I_nw_EST_2016020500_013

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:52 pm

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 Image.thumb.png.1930c3a7a916c4c34a2d315694835010
02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 Image.thumb.png.df26929a68c16ef98d32913900a0ff2e
02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 Image.thumb.png.9597b01d2efd3a6d22653336f043581b
02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 Image.thumb.png.af5468f0bad29f003d5179e9678823c3
02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 Image.thumb.png.e1768919a635dceec3b5bad53ed4f00c

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:07 pm

RGEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THAT IS A GREAT RUN WOW!!

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02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:09 pm

Manually change prog to 2/5 0z to view loop.




Does look good

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:11 pm

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 Northeast_loop

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:12 pm

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 Rgem_asnow_neus_6

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02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:12 pm

Light rain just began
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Post by 2004blackwrx Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:18 pm

Wow this may be a surprise. I haven't followed winter much since I haven't seen it yet. My weather app showed snow for a few hours I just assumed a clipper. This may be interesting.

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02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:21 pm

RAP shifted a bit east and has a very scary cutoff which im in, this one is a tough forecast... 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=02&model_dd=05&model_init_hh=02&fhour=15&parameter=PCPIN&level=15&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false
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02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:23 pm

2z RAP hr 16, storm basically over in NJ

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=02&model_dd=05&model_init_hh=02&fhour=16¶meter=PCPIN&level=15&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false
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02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 Empty Re: 02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:24 pm

I hate being in the cutoff zone, its a very volitaile area, a shift west or east 25 miles has huge implications, look at NWNJ and EPA, ugh.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:29 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:2z RAP hr 16, storm basically over in NJ

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=02&model_dd=05&model_init_hh=02&fhour=16¶meter=PCPIN&level=15&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

This map chopped off LI  confused

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:31 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:I hate being in the cutoff zone, its a very volitaile area, a shift west or east 25 miles has huge implications, look at NWNJ and EPA, ugh.

Welcome to my winter 2015/16 weather world.
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:32 pm

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 Hrrr_2016020502_ref_ne

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:34 pm

00z GFS 

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f9

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f12

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:34 pm

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f15

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:34 pm

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f18

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:37 pm

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f21

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:40 pm

Its a bit SE

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020500&time=PER&var=APCPI&hour=018
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:41 pm

Last minute east trend, uh oh... Slight waffling has huge implications for NJ, the city and LI are pretty much locked in.
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:46 pm

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 925mb_sf

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Post by Vinnydula Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:47 pm

Sleet and light snow 39
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Post by snow247 Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:47 pm

40* here, dp 29.

Looks like a classic N & W screw job incoming.
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Post by Vinnydula Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:50 pm

All sleet
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:53 pm

VERY LIGHT WHITE GOLD AND SLEET FALLING

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:55 pm

Very encouraging 

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 1

02/05 "Surprise" Storm Obs. / Final Call Snow Map - Page 3 Rb-animated

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Post by Vinnydula Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:56 pm

All snow now
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