Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Feb 06, 2016 8:42 pm

Off topic, but Mike Trout just followed me. He's a huge weather weenie.

by **Dunnzoo** Sat Feb 06, 2016 8:44 pm

Cool, and a Jersey boy

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Feb 06, 2016 8:45 pm

9 inches of snow on the mean SREF for Islip

by **snow247** Sat Feb 06, 2016 8:45 pm

He should join us.

by **oldtimer** Sat Feb 06, 2016 8:46 pm

He is the best thing since Donny Baseball Frank!!

by **frank 638** Sat Feb 06, 2016 8:52 pm

Yes he is welcome aboard mike

by Guest Sat Feb 06, 2016 8:52 pm

I was going to ask you a question Frank just before you posted the SREF mean for Islip. How well do you trust them in this time range? If most of Long Island looks to receive .6-.8" QPF this would equate to a 7-10" snowfall forecast from the city on east with a 12:1 ratio right?

by **sroc4** Sat Feb 06, 2016 8:52 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Off topic, but Mike Trout just followed me. He's a huge weather weenie.

Get him in here.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Feb 06, 2016 8:56 pm

syosnow94 wrote:I was going to ask you a question Frank just before you posted the SREF mean for Islip. How well do you trust them in this time range? If most of Long Island looks to receive .6-.8" QPF this would equate to a 7-10" snowfall forecast from the city on east with a 12:1 ratio right?

For me it's not so much about the models or any one particular model. If I was all models I wouldn't have a map showing accumulating snow Monday. The reason why I'm excited about the SREFS is because they agree the large 500mb trough digging into the eastern CONUS will partially capture the large storm sitting well off the coast. As long as that ocean storm is close enough to the coast to feel the influence of the trough, we'll have a CCB over our area. Mesoscale models performed well with Jonas mainly because of the incredible jet dynamics complicating the setup. I find this setup to be similar and that's why I put more stock into SREFS/NAM/RGEM than anything else.

by **amugs** Sat Feb 06, 2016 8:57 pm

As they day at the hot grill hot dog joint one french one

by **weatherwatchermom** Sat Feb 06, 2016 8:59 pm

is the nam coming out soon?

by **snow247** Sat Feb 06, 2016 9:00 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:is the nam coming out soon?

Rolling right now, out to hour 21.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Feb 06, 2016 9:00 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:is the nam coming out soon?

Right now

by **Dunnzoo** Sat Feb 06, 2016 9:00 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:is the nam coming out soon?

Nam running now

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Feb 06, 2016 9:09 pm

Dang, the NAM looks awful right now.

by **Quietace** Sat Feb 06, 2016 9:09 pm

And the NAM is OTS thank god. Waiting to see IVT signal.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Feb 06, 2016 9:12 pm

amugs wrote:Srefs leading the way!!!!

SREFSSSSSSSSSS

No pictures? disappointing.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Feb 06, 2016 9:14 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
amugs wrote:Srefs leading the way!!!!

SREFSSSSSSSSSS

No pictures? disappointing.

I posted them

by **jmanley32** Sat Feb 06, 2016 9:16 pm

Dang no 8th snow with nam wow. Still time like with jonas last min. But it is Def not good. Well ace seems to b okay with it.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Feb 06, 2016 9:17 pm

The 00z NAM is well east of the 18z run. Not a single flake for the area. I'm curious to see what this means for the inverted trough on Tuesday now. Anyway - losing the NAM for Mondays storm is a big blow even though the SREFS still show a hit.

by **jmanley32** Sat Feb 06, 2016 9:17 pm

amugs wrote:As they day at the hot grill hot dog joint one french one

ugg I hate Boston 30 plus mm.

by **amugs** Sat Feb 06, 2016 9:19 pm

Hopefully the RGEM will hold and maybe we can get the other meoscale models to come around.

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Feb 06, 2016 9:21 pm

Not hanging it up just on the nam more model runs to come

by **amugs** Sat Feb 06, 2016 9:23 pm

Quietace wrote:And the NAM is OTS thank god. Waiting to see IVT signal.

THANK GOD??? WHAT IS THE MATTER WITH YOU??

by **jmanley32** Sat Feb 06, 2016 9:23 pm

Right but remember frank did say big bust potential.

by **jmanley32** Sat Feb 06, 2016 9:24 pm

amugs wrote:
Quietace wrote:And the NAM is OTS thank god. Waiting to see IVT signal.

THANK GOD??? WHAT IS THE MATTER WITH YOU??

I think he is worried for coastal damages.

by **amugs** Sat Feb 06, 2016 9:28 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:
Quietace wrote:And the NAM is OTS thank god. Waiting to see IVT signal.

THANK GOD??? WHAT IS THE MATTER WITH YOU??
I think he is worried for coastal damages.

That what happens when you live on the coast as bad as this might sound.

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